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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

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Is the southern one doing a right mover?,seems to be splitting from the parent one,come on.

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The latest radar grab of the Manchester storm is eye opening - check out those PPN rates!!!!

Edited by P-M

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Sat here somewhere in between dronfield and hathersage and the sky is pitch black to the SSW. Looking forward to what's in store. Some crazy rainfall rates out there!

 

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2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

 

I think it's going to track up the western side of the pennines, perhaps just reaching as far east as eastern upslopes of the pennines.

It's building to the east though - not sure just yet I am not calling a bust by any means.  It's shifting ever so slightly east each update.  I'm probably wishful thinking but even if it continues direct north it's wouldn't be far from me I'd defo chase.  Now the next question is  - will it maintain it's electrical activity!

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks to be a fair amount of capping in place tomorrow. Now, days like that are hit and miss....I've seen times where the capping is just to overwhelming for anything to develop and also times when the cap erodes temporarily in isolated pockets. In this instance, small but extremely potent cells can pop up in a matter of moments and drop huge amounts of rain. 

Plenty of CAPE advertised tomorrow but little to ignite it is my prognosis.

Thanks for that, still waiting on the usual sources to post a detailed outlook, and Thursday sounds interesting.

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Does anyone have a postcode for the manchester area so i can zoom on NW radar. Thanks :)

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Grrr going to miss out once again. Bolteks going crazy here so close so far.

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Can see flickers of distant lightning and low rumbles of thunder.

 

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Just now, Marcus_surfer said:

Does anyone have a postcode for the manchester area so i can zoom on NW radar. Thanks :)

Try SK14 1PP - thats just to the east of the city by 8-10 miles should get you there 

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1 minute ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Does anyone have a postcode for the manchester area so i can zoom on NW radar. Thanks :)

Try M1 or M2, that's central Manchester. For Stockport areas and surrounds try SK2 or SK1

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WOW What an amazing storm, never heard or seen thunder like it all I can describe it as bombs going off multiple lightning strikes just wow

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Try M1 or M2, that's central Manchester. For Stockport areas and surrounds try SK2 or SK1

Beautiful storm!

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OMG sounded like a lightning strike has hit something nearby. Deafening thunder!

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Absolutely speechless, What a storm that has just past here..

 

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I'm 35m off Manchester,looking sw now and it's like nightime.Enjoy you guys.Hoping I catch edge of yhe eastern side nxt hr.

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WOW Just heard the loudest thunder I have ever heard even abroad, I cant even describe it.

 

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this is astonishing! The lightning is everywhere. Im gonna let it pass over and video it.

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23 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS badly wrong over storm placement, run after run. Had a lot of activity shown over N Wales.

Same model breaking isolated (but potentially very intense) storms around Cheshire tomorrow afternoon. Atmosphere like a loaded gun.

ukprec.png

ukcapeli.png

Looking at the extended skew-t, it suggests there will be quite a strong cap to erode, from around 940 to 900mb, probably why the hi-res models show absolutely zilch in terms of precip.

skew0.535255815674649.png

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Looking at the extended skew-t, it suggests there will be quite a strong cap to erode, from around 940 to 900mb, probably why the hi-res models show absolutely zilch in terms of precip.

skew0.535255815674649.png

And again it's all up north. I seriously don't understand how these storms work. Doesn't make any sense.

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