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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

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Incredible here, almost constant rumblings of thunder, wind has got up too. Dark outside with the lights on indoors and the street lamp.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Pitch black here now I had to double-take on the time. sunset isn't for another hour yet.

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5 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Is this lot moving east anytime soon? got plenty of clouds with darkened skies, no thunder though contrary to what the radar is suggesting.

Looks to me like it has stopped its progression E as steering winds are becoming more SE'ly. Could be some serious flooding under that lot now as it just looks like a conveyor belt tracking over the same areas.

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 You lucky buggers.  That had better start   back-building  West, or something had  better happened later.

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Never seen the sky so dark to my  Sw,the wind has picked up from nothing to a near gale.Still no thunder or lightning though!!.

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Exceptionally intense line of precipitation just south of the Lizard, Cornwall right now. 

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Crazy lightning to my east over Manchester. I think there could be hail in that, it's so intense.

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1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Uk live lightnings down...... 

Same here:wallbash:

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Just now, Darren Bown said:

Crazy lightning to my east over Manchester. I think there could be hail in that, it's so intense.

GFS badly wrong over storm placement, run after run. Had a lot of activity shown over N Wales.

Same model breaking isolated (but potentially very intense) storms around Cheshire tomorrow afternoon. Atmosphere like a loaded gun.

ukprec.png

ukcapeli.png

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Plenty of humdinger's formed along that front stretching down towards the bay of Biscay.

 

An interesting evening and night to come.

 

europe_ir.gif

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I'd still like to know what's happening tomo regarding potential convection in the east?

my brother-in-law in Manchester seems to be enjoying a cracker of a storm at the moment - should have gone up there!

hopefully in and amongst the reports online and in the media that 'everywhere had a massive thunderstorm' there might be some forecasts or details on what track these newer cells and troughs will be taking overnight?

also it would be good to know if and when the heat intensifies again.

wouldnt expect those current storms to last too long into the night - surely the heat just isn't there?

still 28° outside here according to the van (which might be a bit out). Looks like we might have some night time fun but really have little hope of seeing anything

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

144/min :bomb::yahoo:

It looks great doesn't it - first time I've tracked one that hasn't fizzled out as it moves north.  I'd love for someone to post a thought on the current conditions for this afternoon / evening and risk areas.  None of the forecasts actually make sense to me now ...

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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I'd still like to know what's happening tomo regarding potential convection in the east?

hopefully in and amongst the reports that 'everywhere had a massive thunderstorm' there might be some details on what track these newer cells and troughs will be taking overnight.

also it would be good to know if and when the heat intensifies again.

wouldnt expect those current storms to last too long into the night - surely the heat just isn't there?

still 28° outside here according to the van (which might be a bit out). Looks like we might have some night time fun but really have little hope of seeing anything

Looks to be a fair amount of capping in place tomorrow. Now, days like that are hit and miss....I've seen times where the capping is just to overwhelming for anything to develop and also times when the cap erodes temporarily in isolated pockets. In this instance, small but extremely potent cells can pop up in a matter of moments and drop huge amounts of rain. 

Plenty of CAPE advertised tomorrow but little to ignite it is my prognosis.

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Intense rain earlier with a few lightning bolts and thunder. Any chance of more thunderstorm activity tonight? Sat24 looking interesting

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Absolutely pelting it down here in Oldham with loud crashes of thunder. At this rate the Man City game could be called off, still over an hour though till kick off.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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5 minutes ago, P-M said:

It looks great doesn't it - first time I've tracked one that hasn't fizzled out as it moves north.  I'd love for someone to post a thought on the current conditions for this afternoon / evening and risk areas.  None of the forecasts actually make sense to me now ...

 

I think it's going to track up the western side of the pennines, perhaps just reaching as far east as eastern upslopes of the pennines.

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