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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

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This is unbelievable! Lightning everywhere, forked..

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Just now, matt111 said:

Yes noticed it looks like just missing us. Can hear louder and more frequent rumbles now though so maybe you can hear it. 

omg just went out, it is thunder its not the glass collection... eek, its quite frequent too, you get a rumble then quiet for maybe half a min to a min then more close together

 

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Words cannot describe how happy I am. This is a full-on hit, for a change. The frequency of lightning is fantastic. I have go back to 2005 for a comparison.

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I still think bristol will be sandwiched between the two lines, but...

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather  18m

W COUNTRY 1100BST Latest lightning shows swathe via #Somerset; storms into #Dorset will track NNW towards #Bristol

Untitled.jpg

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Good stuff further south-west of here. I am currently sat to the SW of Stoke awaiting what is going to happen to the two storms rumbling away down south.

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Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_130916.png

Issued 2016-09-13 10:12:30

Valid: 13/09/16 06z to 14/09/16 06z

CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - TUES 13TH-SEPT-2016

Synopsis

Atlantic upper trough to the west of UK will continue to extend SE towards SW Europe today before disrupting into a cut-off upper low over northern Iberia by the end of the day. At the surface, a waving cold front … lying N-S from western Scotland down through the Irish Sea, Bay of Biscay and Portugal …will eventually pivot around a developing low over Biscay/W France. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will pulse north across western just ahead of the cold front as colder air and divergence aloft across the west destabilise the western edge of the warm and moist plume further east.

… SW ENGLAND, WALES, W MIDLANDS, NW ENGLAND and S SCOTLAND  …

Increasing divergence/lift and cooling aloft on eastern flank of upper trough combined with drier air and stronger positive vorticity pushing north in the mid-levels (500mb) from NW France is destabilising western edge of warm and humid plume, characterised by high (16C+) theta-w values (wet bulb potential temperature)  spreading north across England and Wales. Thunderstorms will spread north across SW England and south Wales this morning as result of this destabilisation, before the storms carry on north across north Wales, NW England this afternoon before arriving across SW Scotland this evening.

These thunderstorms will be generally elevated and rooted above a stable boundary layer, but will be in environment of deep layer shear values of 40-60knts, therefore will likely organise into multicell clusters and perhaps upscale growth into a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System), mainly bringing a risk of excessive rainfall (up to 30mm per/hr) and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. With fairly large CAPE values, there is an isolated risk of large hail (2-3cm diameter) too. Therefore have issued a SLIGHT risk for severe weather across these western areas.

A few isolated thunderstorms could develop across central southern England and West Midlands too this evening, given unstable warm and humid airmass advecting north today, characterised by CAPE values reaching 1000 j/kg+. But this looks less certain

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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1 minute ago, Chris K said:

I still think bristol will be sandwiched between the two lines, but...

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather  18m

W COUNTRY 1100BST Latest lightning shows swathe via #Somerset; storms into #Dorset will track NNW towards #Bristol

Untitled.jpg

Fingers crossed the left turn of the storms to the southeast is as pronounced as the first batch so that it turns left into Bristol. Rather annoying that we've got cloud build up inhibiting further solar heating at ground level.

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1 minute ago, Chris K said:

I still think bristol will be sandwiched between the two lines, but...

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather  18m

W COUNTRY 1100BST Latest lightning shows swathe via #Somerset; storms into #Dorset will track NNW towards #Bristol

Untitled.jpg

This has to be our best chance. I'm going to remain optimistic. Not had a day time storm for years!

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2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Good stuff further south-west of here. I am currently sat to the SW of Stoke awaiting what is going to happen to the two storms rumbling away down south.

rumbling in my part and its getting louder, its a good 15miles away and heading away from me which is odd, just wonder if maybe radar hasnt picked it up and its closer than i think

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I don't like BBC or MetO bashing, but judging by some of the lightning I've seen, it wouldn't surprise me if a house or two has been hit. They have a lot to answer for.

Meanwhile;  instant gunshot - I almost pooped Mapantz.

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The Bournemouth cam now isn't working. Maybe thanks to the storm down there?

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Too far east this time which is very rare!

 

If it was dark I'm sure i would get a decent show out to the West:(

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Another storm forming to the West of Cardiff now, with rumbles of thunder. Doesn't look as potent as the one we've just had but this certainly helps with the dissapointing summer we've had.

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Got a screenshot from a vid, towards Bournemouth.

Screenshot_2016-09-13-11-39-14.png

Edited by Mapantz
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Brighter to my south now but very dark to the west. Still quite frequent and loud thunder coming from that direction. Picture certainly doesn't do it justice to how dark it is. 

image.jpeg

Edited by matt111

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Rumbles again here and starting to get darker, sun was out for a short time but the rain has just started.

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Temperature in Leicester already up to 27c, anyone reckon we could cop the edge of anything this afternoon??

Admittedly, looks to be heading towards Stoke on Trents direction.... But if it grows wider, possibly a side swipe for the west side of the east Midlands??

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