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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
11 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Quite a few showers breaking out in the channel again - a few sferics in amongst it too. Mr @Grimers may reach an inch of rain before midnight. :)

Correct!

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Yeah, we had heavy rain yesterday morning with some distant rumbles of thunder to the south, more showers in the afternoon and evening (and a few more distant rumbles to the south) with a heavy downpour around before midnight.

Going by the manual gauge (though the Davis was almost identical), we totalled 26.0mm yesterday and 5.0mm today.

Fog this morning gradually lifted with sunshine this afternoon, and it was warmer reaching 15.7C. Foggy again this evening (shallow mist/fog started to form as soon as the sun went down).
 

Edit: thought I was in the SW regional thread hence talk of fog and stuff :laugh:

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The media say we're a mere days away from the first named storm of the season.... think they want to look at the charts :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
35 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The media say we're a mere days away from the first named storm of the season.... think they want to look at the charts :rofl:

Lol unless they stretch named storms to high pressure with heavy fog.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Oh yes, I've already heard about the incoming "three months of snow" and "coldest winter since records began" headlines. I guess for only the second time in my life then I can look forward to a white xmas! Oh wait...

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

Beautiful.

We had a very heavy hail shower in Brixton about 2pm. No thunder though.

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

Hope this is the right forum thread. I a bit bemused by the meto forecast for Stornoway, it says thundery showers on Thursday all day, which given the synopics I would say is a fair bet, But if I switch to Stornoway Airport it says dry and cloudy with no showers at all, which I find really hard to believe. I have to add Stornoway airport is about 1 mile from the town centre! Any ideas which one is correct?

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
8 hours ago, snowbunting said:

Hope this is the right forum thread. I a bit bemused by the meto forecast for Stornoway, it says thundery showers on Thursday all day, which given the synopics I would say is a fair bet, But if I switch to Stornoway Airport it says dry and cloudy with no showers at all, which I find really hard to believe. I have to add Stornoway airport is about 1 mile from the town centre! Any ideas which one is correct?

To be honest, at this range it is much to early to tell with regards to thundery potential as thunderstorms are so difficult to forecast. GFS certainly shows a risk of thundery showers around the coastlines of W Scotland and the islands but all forecasts will have an amount of inaccuracy at 5 days out. The Met Office forecast for an individual town can be confusing when it comes to showers as they tend to scatter the shower symbol around on the map and if you happen to live in an area where there isn't a shower symbol it won't forecast showers, even though a mile down the road the forecast is showers. If there are showers forecast anywhere near you then I would go with that for now.

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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Left work at 2pm sky was black hoped to get home before it rained almost did but got caught in really heavy rain was soaked through could of had a rumble or two but nothing, did overhear talk at work about forecasts are saying possible thunder here tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 17 Nov 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 18 Nov 2016

ISSUED 21:15 UTC Wed 16 Nov 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

A sharpening upper trough will slide SE-wards on Thursday, introducing notably steep lapse rates as a result of cold mid-levels atop seasonably warm SSTs. On the forward side of this upper trough, a squally cold front/instant occlusion will move eastwards across the southern half of the British Isles. Despite convective depth being largely too shallow for lightning (at least marginally so, hence isolated sferics cannot be ruled out), some 50-70kts DLS with a notable wind veer along the front may allow segments of line convection to develop capable of squally gusts of wind and perhaps a tornado. Brief episodes of heavy rain, small hail and a rapid temperature drop are typically produced with such features.

In the post-frontal environment, numerous showers are expected, heaviest and most frequent in western areas where some sporadic lightning will be likely. Overall instability is too marginal to warrant any SLGT areas for now, but the risk is generally greatest near western coasts and over open seas. Again, gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the most intense showers, with snow at increasingly lower elevations in northern and western Britain as the day progresses.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-11-17

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

A widespread risk of thundery showers tomorrow across the UK but with weak CAPE it is unlikely that thunder and lightning will be widespread. Deep layer shear in the region of 60-80knts across England and Wales through the morning to mid afternoon could promote some more organised storm activity and this has the chance of producing hail, gusty winds and possibly snow over any high ground if the freezing level can be temporarily brought down in heavier precipitation. In fact, it looks like a squall line feature could develop across Wales and push east across England with areas such as North Wales and the Midlands being affected by a short spell of heavy rain, hail, gusty winds and the odd flash/rumble. GFS is showing a slight tornado risk with this and so it is possible things could become quite interesting for a time around the middle of the day.

Best chance of thunder and lightning would be close to the west coast. At this time of the year it takes special conditions to produce widespread lightning inland but high SST's should aid over coastal waters. Friday is looking like a day of sunshine and showers with hail and occasional thunder still likely but less widespread than Thursday.

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Looks like some sferics from the potent cell that's just crossed Swansea. Heading this way; fingers crossed for some thunder here today or tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_171116.png

Issued 2016-11-17 10:48:10

Valid: 17/11/2016 0600z to 18/11/2016 0600z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - THURS 17TH-NOV-2016

Synopsis

A deep and cold upper trough, originating from Greenland, approaches British Isles from the NW on Thursday. A strong cyclonic W/SWly flow runs along the bottom and forward side of this approaching upper trough, with a 150 mph+ jet running east across Sern EIRE and Sern UK. A frontal wave within this strong westerly flow will track east across Wales and England this morning and through the afternoon, bringing a spell of squally rain with a risk of hail and thunder.

... WALES, CENTRAL and S ENGLAND, E ANGLIA ...

Frontal wave moving in across Wales this morning from the Irish has a distinct 'comma' shape of heavy convective rainfall on radar. Strong deep layer shear in the order of 50-70knts is indicated, as the wave moves through beneath a strong jet and creates strong veering and strengthening of winds with height. So convection along the cold front/triple point of this wave moving east into England will be well organised and displaying line squall characteristics. 

Main risk from the squall moving east will be strong convective wind gusts, some convective allowing charts show 50-60 knt gusts, so have issued a MARGINAL risk for Wales, Midlands, S England and E Anglia. CAPE forecasted looks fairly meagre, but updrafts should be strong enough along the cold front to support hail and isolated lightning. There is also a risk of minor localised flooding from brief high rainfall rates along the squall. An isolated and brief tornado can't be ruled too along the squall, especially given strong low-level shear indicated.

... W and NW UK ...

Besides the frontal wave and its squall running across Sern UK, rather steep low to mid-level lapse rates will overspread northern and western parts of the UK as increasingly cold air aloft (AOB -30C at 500mb) spreads aloft from the W and NW with approaching upper trough. As a result, scattered heavy showers accompanied by hail and isolated thunder will affect the above areas today, thunder most likely near western coasts where CAPE will be enhanced by cold air atop relatively warmer SSTs.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Yellow warning for strong winds issued a short time ago from the met office 

Issued at: 12:07 on Thu 17 Nov 2016

Valid from: 12:10 on Thu 17 Nov 2016

Valid to: 17:00 on Thu 17 Nov 2016

A brief spell of very strong winds is expected as a line of heavy rain moves eastwards over the UK during Thursday afternoon. Whilst most places will miss the worst a few spots may see gusts in excess of 70 mph. Please be aware of a very low likelihood of disruption, primarily to travel, from falling trees and debris.

An area of rainfall moving eastwards is associated with some very strong and squally winds. The strongest winds are very localised so many places will not see disruption.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Warnings_Rain&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1479340800&regionName=uk

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Some sferics south-east of Macclesfield. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Looks like some sferics from the potent cell that's just crossed Swansea. Heading this way; fingers crossed for some thunder here today or tomorrow.

Saw one bright flash of lightning and heard thunder at work in Swansea earlier accompanied by brief torrential rain and hail.  Sunshine and blue sky now!

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Posted
  • Location: Wallasey Village, Wirral. 15.7m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Temps under 25 degrees and Disruptive Heavy Snowfall any other time
  • Location: Wallasey Village, Wirral. 15.7m ASL.
2 minutes ago, Pixel said:

Tornadoes hit Wales and the Midlands, aparently

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38016701

Quite a bit of damage done - hope everyone around those parts is safe.

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
1 minute ago, Chill Pill said:

Quite a bit of damage done - hope everyone around those parts is safe.

Indeed, hope everyones ok - just seen the update

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