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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Cool pool drifting west over warmer N Sea creating pool of steep lapse rates and CAPE which will drift into E England Monday:

lapse_m06z.pngh500-m06z.png

 

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_101016.png

Issued 2016-10-09 22:10:00

Valid: 10/10/2016 0600 11/10/2016 0600

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - MONDAY 10TH OCTOBER 2016

Synopsis

Beneath persistent upper ridge over Scandinavia - an upper low with a deep mid-level cold pool (temps of -25 to -30C at 500hPa) over Denmark Sunday lunchtime will drift west across the North Sea overnight and arrive across E England during Monday. A shallow surface low/wave will also drift west across Low Countries/S North Sea on forward/western side of upper low, with associated wrap around occluded front pushing in across Ern UK by noon Monday.

... E ENGLAND ...

Cold mid-level temperatures of upper low atop of relative warm North Sea Surface Temps (SSTs) between 13-17C in the southern part will produce a pool of steep lapse rates / a few 100 j/kg CAPE drifting W into E England during Monday. This will support heavy showers and perhaps some thunderstorms capable of producing hail, squally winds, and isolated minor surface flooding. Vertical shear will be rather weak - so no severe weather is anticipated. However, lower Lifted Condensation Levels (LCLs) over the N Sea thanks to greater moisture and relative warm SSTs along with some wind local convergence near east coasts may allow more buoyant updrafts to rotate to produce funnels or even one or two waterspouts.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Some beautiful and very angry looking skies in Tower Hamlets at the moment. Been in a room with no windows and just came out to see rain on the window, wet ground and these skies...

IMG_20161012_141547385.jpg

IMG_20161012_141643701.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Looks like an early morning wake up call for anyone south of Lincoln this morning.

Capture.PNG

Image courtesy of https://www.lightningmaps.org/

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
14 hours ago, Supacell said:

Looks like an early morning wake up call for anyone south of Lincoln this morning.

Capture.PNG

Image courtesy of https://www.lightningmaps.org/

Well, what do you expect, it's in Lincolnshire after all! ;)

Edited by Grimers
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Saturday afternoon in to Saturday night could provide some possible thunder in parts of the South and Southwest. Lowering heights from an area of low pressure in the Southwest quadrant of the UK will push fronts SW to NW, low ELT's, steepening lapse rates and some convective potential providing possible hail and thunder in any heavy showers. It's been a while!

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Saturday afternoon in to Saturday night could provide some possible thunder in parts of the South and Southwest. Lowering heights from an area of low pressure in the Southwest quadrant of the UK will push fronts SW to NW, low ELT's, steepening lapse rates and some convective potential providing possible hail and thunder in any heavy showers. It's been a while!

Hmm, I think my hopes for thunder are being drowned out by my hopes for snow... ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Lots of sferics out  in the Irish Sea. Keeping an eye on the area. 

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
52 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Lots of sferics out  in the Irish Sea. Keeping an eye on the area. 

Quite a fierce isolated storm that one! Over 120 sferics recorded in its short life! Just needs to shift a little further north...

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Not much here but an extremely active night over the Mediterranean! 

Life threatening flash floods are being forecast for Italy and Corsica areas through today. 

Anyone on now should have a look at this Marseille cam!! Phenomenal lightning :shok:!! 

http://www.webcam-hd.fr/webcams-tourisme/france/webcam-marseille-live-hd.html

 

image.png

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

It looks like there will be some thundery rain tomorrow afternoon here!

Edited by Grimers
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

There are heavy downpours to the W and SE of here.

Edited by Grimers
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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
15 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Not much here but an extremely active night over the Mediterranean! 

Life threatening flash floods are being forecast for Italy and Corsica areas through today. 

Anyone on now should have a look at this Marseille cam!! Phenomenal lightning :shok:!! 

http://www.webcam-hd.fr/webcams-tourisme/france/webcam-marseille-live-hd.html

 

image.png

It was a lot less severe in the south of France than initially forecast, but some lower areas had flooding and there were some amazing seas. Lots of reports of "mousse", beaches left covered in salt water foam! Indeed the storms look like intensifying as they head east. Once again, lovely to look at but we all hope no lives are lost...

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton

BBC weather has the lightning symbol for here on Sunday which has got my hopes up a little.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

There are torrential downpours to the SW of here.

Edited by Grimers
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 Oct 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 Oct 2016

ISSUED 07:16 UTC Sat 15 Oct 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper low will reside to the southwest of the British Isles, but with various forcing elements pivoting around its main centre of gravity to bring renewed pulses of (a messy mix of) dynamic/convective precipitation northeastwards at various stages through Saturday and Saturday night. All of these features have the potential to produce some sporadic/isolated lightning activity, most likely over open waters and on windward coasts where relatively warm SSTs beneath cold mid-levels will increase instability. 

One such feature will arrive across S/SW coastal areas this afternoon, and already has a history of producing some sporadic lightning near the Brest peninsula so far this morning, but is expected to weaken as it moves further inland through Saturday evening. Nonetheless, squally gusts of wind and some small hail will be possible from the most intense embedded cells.

Attention then turns more to the overnight hours as the upper trough advances from the southwest, a sharpening shortwave rounding the base and running north across Ireland/Irish Sea later. An increase in shower coverage/intensity is expected here through Saturday night, and given some marginal instability have issued a low-end SLGT where slightly better environmental conditions look likely to develop to produce lightning. Again, some small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest cells.

Later in the night, another showery feature approaches the south coast from the English Channel. Given slightly better instability and stronger wind shear, this will need monitoring for the potential for a waterspout/tornado. This is considered very low risk in any one location, but similar setups in the past have yielded some tornadic activity, which is climatologically most likely along coastal areas between Gosport and Brighton

In reality, other local-scale SLGTs could be issued, but it is near-impossible to be any more precise as to where the best ingredients could (briefly) come together to increase lightning potential on a local scale.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-10-15

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

There were two torrential downpours last night here.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

There have been lightning strikes S of Cornwall.

Edited by Grimers
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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

As always, right on the edge. Don't think we'll get anything but rain here

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Pretty close flash just now followed by fairly instant thunder. Nice little treat this. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_151016.png

Issued 2016-10-15 10:22:26

Valid: 15/10/2016 0600 to 16/10/2016

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SAT 15TH OCT 2016

Synopsis

Upper and colocated surface will low in the southwest approaches will drift slowly NE across southern Ireland by early Sunday. Associated cold front will lift north across the UK and Ireland during Saturday, clearing N Scotland by midnight. Shortwave trough ejecting NE ahead of upper low and associated frontal wave will bring an area of squally heavy thundery downpours NE across southern England, Midlands, E Anglia and Wales this afternoon and evening, followed by further showers towards southern and western coasts of England, Wales and EIRE overnight that could be thundery.

... S ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, E ENGLAND AND IRELAND ...

Cold front lifting north brought a line of heavy rain and isoated thunder earlier this morning across far SW England, SW Wales and southern Irish Sea. Now Water Vapour imagery, 500mb relative humidity and vorticity charts indicate a marked shortwave trough moving NE towards SW England this morning - stronger lift and dry mid-level air of the shortwave is supporting an area of heavy convective rainfall with embedded isolated thunder and lightning now moving in across Cornwall and Brittany. This area of heavy rain with isolated thunder will continue NE across S England, Wales, Midlands and E England through the afternoon and evening. Strong southwesterly flow aloft and deep layer shear in the order of 30-40 knots will  be sufficient for organisation of convection/storms - with a risk of heavy rainfall leading to localised flooding and isolated strong wind gusts possible. Have issued a MARGINAL risk for localised flooding towards S England - where higher rainfall signal is indicated.

Further heavy showers will follow this convective/thundery area of rainfall from the southwest to affect southern and western coastal areas of England, Wales and EIRE this evening and overnight, as steep lapse rates overspread southern and western areas. Some heavier showers producing isolated lightning towards coasts where warm SSTs create stronger updrafts/high cloud tops through cold air aloft. Isolated localised flooding, hail and gusty winds will be possible with these showers.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

There is a thunderstorm in SW Cornwall.

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