Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

[Supacell]

2 hours ago, Frosty hollows said:

This is the Reading cell from the evening isn't it? This was followed by apocalyptic overnight rains which flooded both Newbury and Didcot areas.  Great footage showing the intensity of the lightning which missed me only 15  miles away

Yes, the same cell. It moved into Newbury from Reading.

[Mesoscale]

Im quite sure my area was one of the most effected by Fridays storms, we had a landslide which caused a train to derail and crash into another train. A lot of the pond life around my fathers pond where killed, including water skimmers and a lot of bees succumbed to the torrent. September seems to be the month around here for storms. 

[Muffelchen]

On ‎16‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 20:20, virtualsphere said:

@Muffelchen ...here in west Wales we haven't had any thunder this week although we came close on Tuesday - the storms stopped being electrically active just east of us near Swansea.  We've had 5 thunder days so far this year which is about average, this compares to the 14 thunder days we had in 2014 which is the most I can remember.  So you have had quite a thunder drought in your area even by our standards  

Hi VS,

Originally from Pembrokeshire I always compare where I live now to home when it comes to storms. Scotland was a disaster storm-wise but, when I moved to East Yorks, I thought I had struck the mother-lode!  Been good generally here but the last tow to three years haven't been quite so stormy. However, this year has been the worst since moving here 13 years ago! Not sure why as there seems to have been a good number of storms nationwide this year.

Oh well, there's always next....

[Windblade]

Some lovely convective skies around here today. Seen a few mini towers and cauliflowers going up, as well as sun rays coming through the gaps in the clouds. Would take a picture but phone is charging. Hoping the next storm opportunity isn't too far away. It's still pretty warm and humid for september here, and although much more bearable and cooler than those horrible heatwaves we've had this year it still feels above average. There's still some time.

Edited September 21, 2016 by Windblade

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Can't wait til the next event - even if we do have to wait until March next year... ;-)

In the meantime I've finally found an outlet for all my footage!

Volume 1 is a compilation of slow-motion strikes from the storms last Thursday

Enjoy!

[Sparkiee storm]

Rain stopped about half hour ago but before then we had about an hour an half to 2 hours of heavy rain with some torrential bursts mix in, the local stream over flowed into the lake next to it and also very large puddles on the roads, no lightning or thunder though, but wasn't expecting anyway but the torrential rain come as a surprise, even though I was soaked through.

[Chris.R]

Some sferics off to  The north surprisingly, creeping closer. 

[Supacell]

3 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can't wait til the next event - even if we do have to wait until March next year... ;-)

In the meantime I've finally found an outlet for all my footage!

Volume 1 is a compilation of slow-motion strikes from the storms last Thursday

Enjoy!

This is an awesome video, thank you for sharing. 

Edited September 21, 2016 by Supacell

[Jan]

On 13/09/2016 at 18:04, Chris.R said:

Omg the sferics on  The  Radio are mad. How are they not close enough to hear, and very frequent now. 

It looks like it's all going to miss us. My house is in silence just so I don't miss hearing anything

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 22 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 23 Sep 2016

ISSUED 20:35 UTC Wed 21 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

In the post-frontal environment, cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs will steepen lapse rates as a sharp upper trough migrates NE-wards, allowing deep convection to bring showers, sometimes in more organised bands, with a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms possible too. The lightning risk will be greatest (but considered sub-SLGT criteria) over Ireland and Northern Ireland on Thursday afternoon, the focus then shifting NE with time to W Scotland by evening. Gusty winds and hail up to 1.0-1.5cm in diameter will be possible with the best organised showers/storms.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-09-22

[Jan]

Just had a quick look at radar Chris, not been paying attention as it's been so quiet. You reckon it's worth hanging around for the slightest rumble or flash?

Edited September 21, 2016 by Jan
Missed word out

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, Jan said:

Just had a quick look at radar Chris, not been paying attention as it's been so quiet. You reckon it's worth hanging around for the slightest rumble or flash?

I'm here sitting in the garden because I'm just desperate for anything but it  seems to have pretty much  died out now. You never know around here though. 

[Jan]

I'm kind of sitting out but bob inside again, I don't really think we'll get anything it doesn't feel right but we can live in hope. I'm desperate for a storm, missed the one at the end of August, I was abroad. I was jealous when I heard about it

[Jan]

There seems to be lightening strikes further North up Cumbria way. It's  moving away from us 

[Chris.R]

14 minutes ago, Jan said:

I'm kind of sitting out but bob inside again, I don't really think we'll get anything it doesn't feel right but we can live in hope. I'm desperate for a storm, missed the one at the end of August, I was abroad. I was jealous when I heard about it

 

 It feels right to me  but pretty sure everything has died for good now. Not been any sferics for 15 minutes. 

 That storm on 28 August wasn't much to write home about  really, although it was nice that it came in the early hours, and the build up for me was great. 

 I was lucky enough to be in Holyhead camping on 20 July when I saw an epic storm  at night, but nothing noteworthy here this year. 

 The Irish sea is warmer than average I believe  so  i'm looking forward to some lively convection for us  this autumn and winter. :-) 

Edited September 21, 2016 by Chris.R

[Arnie Pie]

"Can't wait til the next event - even if we do have to wait until March next year... ;-)

In the meantime I've finally found an outlet for all my footage!

Volume 1 is a compilation of slow-motion strikes from the storms last Thursday"

Yep ...great compilation there Flash bang......Nicely composed

Which camera are you using?

[Jan]

I was in Spain round about that date, we had a whole day of storms, nothing over head but it was great watching them all around us 

[Jan]

Lashing down here !

[Chris.R]

26 minutes ago, Jan said:

Lashing down here !

 That was a squall-line and a half! A cold front.  That'll be it now. :-) 

Edited September 21, 2016 by Chris.R

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 hours ago, Jan said:

I was in Spain round about that date, we had a whole day of storms, nothing over head but it was great watching them all around us 

Off to Majorca tomorrow and they're under a level 1 estofex warning. A possibility, albeit a low one of a potential 'cold drop' known as gota fria in Spanish later into next week! This is known to bring devastating floods and sometimes days of monsoon like rains. May have to be careful what I wish for. Those storms really do mean business. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

"Can't wait til the next event - even if we do have to wait until March next year... ;-)

In the meantime I've finally found an outlet for all my footage!

Volume 1 is a compilation of slow-motion strikes from the storms last Thursday"

Yep ...great compilation there Flash bang......Nicely composed

Which camera are you using?

I used to use my Nikons (one for stills and one for video) but this last event it was all taken on my iPhone.

Just generally easier and quicker to use and view. Not to say I won't be using the other cameras next time though.

I used iMovie to put it all together too. Such a great app!

Glad people liked the result - hopefully more opportunities to come our way soon!

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 24 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 25 Sep 2016

ISSUED 20:30 UTC Fri 23 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Strong DLS along the cold front, with a high WBPT low-level plume in advance, will create an environment conducive to episodes of line convection as the frontal boundary moves erratically eastwards through Saturday and Saturday night. In such conditions, true convective depth tends to be relatively shallow, and so lightning is often very infrequent or non-existent - and hence a broad but low-end LOW threat level (i.e. near 5-10% chance) has been issued to cover the frontal passage through this 24 hour period. That said, a brief funnel or weak tornado cannot be ruled out.

Aside from this, most areas will remain void of lightning during this forecast period, with the exception of portions of Ireland on Saturday night as a sharp upper trough and associated cold mid-levels create an environment of notably steep lapse rates. Expect an increase in shower coverage here through the early hours of Sunday, extending into far western extremities of Britain by the end of this forecast period - though not phasing ideally with diurnal heating, and so coverage of lightning is expected to be too sparse to issue a SLGT. Nonetheless, some small hail and gusty winds will be possible with this activity.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-09-24

[Sparkiee storm]

A small squall line looks to have developed in Northern Ireland but no lightning yet.

[Stuart]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 25 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 26 Sep 2016

ISSUED 16:23 UTC Sat 24 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Strong DLS along the cold front boundary may continue to produce some elements of line convection, especially on the leading edge of the precipitation field, as the front clears eastwards across E/SE England on Sunday morning - although the risk of lightning is very low (near 5-10%).

 

Otherwise, the post-frontal environment will exhibit notably steep lapse rates as a sharp upper trough slides NE from the Atlantic across the British Isles. Numerous showers, as a result of cold air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs, will be ongoing at the beginning of this forecast period over portions of Ireland, and will tend to become more widespread in coverage through the day across many areas - although very few in sheltered eastern parts. Lightning will be rather sporadic in nature, hence the broad LOW threat level issued, but a favourable overlap of instability phasing with peak diurnal heating suggests a better chance of showers becoming electrified across northern parts of Ireland into Northern Ireland on Sunday afternoon - hence a SLGT issued here.

 

The strongest cells will be capable of producing gusty winds and hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-09-25

 

 

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-09-25 08:38:33

Valid: 25/09/16 0600 - 26/09/16 0600

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SUN 25TH-SEPT-2016

Synopsis

Longwave upper trough moves in from the west across the British Isles. At the surface, N-S aligned frontal system bringing overnight rain clears east coast first thing ahead of low pressure system to NW of Scotland. An increasingly unstable Polar maritime (Pm) flow spreads in from the west through Sunday, with blustery showers accompanied by a risk of hail and thunder affecting the W and NW.

... EIRE, N. IRELAND, N WALES, N ENGLAND, SCOTLAND ...

Upper trough moving in from the west will increase lift of moist maritime flow and introduce increasingly cold air in the mid-levels which will steepen lapse rates. As a result, moderate instability will develop across the above areas, aided by modest surface heating, with 300-600 j/kg CAPE forecast sufficient for hail and thunder to accompany the heavier showers expected to spread in/ develop from the west today. Deep layer shear will be fairly weak, so showers /storms are unlikely to produce organised severe weather, though there is a risk of minor localised flooding, hail and gusty winds from heavier cells.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis