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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, UxbridgeLondon said:

Yes that's correct, the Amber region really got hit hard earlier by most reports, leaving the ground and drainage systems extremely saturated. It's by no means an indication that this area will be hit any harder than the surrounding areas. 

Essex etc in warning area

did Essex have any substantial rain earlier ?

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

That Met Office Amber warning sounds pretty ominous. Mass disruption to transport?

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I'm going to try to get some shut eye. Could be a night of little sleep if goes to plan so will try and get some in now.

Good luck all, stay safe and I hope none of us have to suffer any flooding!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

That Met Office Amber warning sounds pretty ominous. Mass disruption to transport?

Yep. Boris bikes are no good in 4" of water.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m

Good luck to the south and Midlands I'm calling it a night would love to stay up and watch this unfold but work calls early.

Edited by Love Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Yep. Boris bikes are no good in 4" of water.

Might give them a good clean though. I suppose 100mm of rain would completely muller the tube.

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon
3 minutes ago, Buckster said:

Essex etc in warning area

did Essex have any substantial rain earlier ?

Until now Essex has been dry as a bone!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Micheldever, Hants - north of Winchester
  • Location: Micheldever, Hants - north of Winchester
5 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Constant rumbling started up here again ...

Yep looks like a new storm approaching Alresford from the east

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
1 minute ago, Moisty said:

Yep looks like a new storm approaching Alresford from the east

It's putting out some impressive rumbles! Can you hear it?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_160916.png

Issued 2016-09-15 21:21:06

Valid: 16/09/2016 00z to 17/09/2016 00z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - FRI 16TH-SEPT-2016

Synopsis

Slack upper and surface flow pattern across the UK on Thursday, between upper trough to the west and upper low over France will be replaced by a more progressive / strengthening W/NWly flow at all levels on Friday, behind upper trough and attendant surface cold front moving in from the west. So unusually warm and humid plume that’s been across much of England and Wales since the beginning of the week will be kicked out and replaced by cooler and fresher conditions from the west. During this transition, thunderstorms are likely to become increasingly widespread across S and E England during Thursday night and Friday morning, before clearing east later on Friday.

… S and E ENGLAND, MIDLANDS …

Convergence north of W-E frontal boundary pushing up across the English Channel and a subtle shortwave moving NE appears to be the forcing mechanism for back-building lines of storms across Dorset, Hampshire and Sussex this evening. These storms are forecast by models to expand in coverage across central S and SE England (including London) and perhaps S/E Midlands overnight, as forcing and cooling increases aloft from the west.

These storms will continue the tendency to back-build over some spots – leading to an enhanced risk of flash-flooding from rainfall rates as high as 30-40mm per/hr. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will pose an additional hazard. Also these storms will be capable of producing hail and gusty winds.

There is a SLIGHT risk for central S and SE England during the first half of Friday morning for of flash-flooding.

Eventually these storms and heavy showers will merge into a broad band of heavy thundery rain, with isolated embedded storms, that will spread east across much of S and E England … as the cold front moves in from the west. Lightning may become less prolific and more isolated during the morning as CAPE is reduced by cool outflow/cold pooling from overnight storms and also cooler and drier air undercutting from the west. But there will continue to be an isolated risk of flash-flooding from stronger convective cells, as well as a risk of gusty winds. Band of thundery rain with embedded storms eventually clearing east coast Friday evening.

There is a MARGINAL risk over S and E England for the continued risk of flash-flooding, though there is a SLIGHT risk over the far SE of England –where a higher risk for stronger storms with flash-flooding will exist into the afternoon.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

That Met Office Amber warning sounds pretty ominous. Mass disruption to transport?

Thats just a normal day here in the London area!

Showers seem to be popping up further back toward the east now. Hoping for something here in the next hour. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I just checked my cam out, and a big juicy spidey just slid down his silky rope, right in front of the lens! I went out to clean it off, and I thought I heard a very deep rumble? It sounded far away, but surely not from that train of showers East of Winchester?

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Just come it out of the football in Southampton. Clear sky overhead but lightning visible in several directions.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset

I have a feel somewhere around Yeovil is a good place to be at the moment, the cold front should start to interact with the convergence line very soon.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

Big flashes to my south now. 

edit. and my first sound of thunder!

Edited by John Hodgson
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Posted
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards,Hot Thundery nights.
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
17 minutes ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

Don't forget your MW radios peeps, there's a lot of strikes not shown on lightning detectors online, your average MW radio will detect local strikes up to 20 miles away.

Just tune to a weak station and listen!! After a while you can also tell the difference between CG and IC strikes, CG's sound like a sudden crack and IC's crackle!!!

 

Remember doing this as a kid living in Essex, when storm's came up from France overnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

The storms south of London are lighting up the haze level above me despite not being able to physically see the lightning! 

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