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Supacell

Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

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A new thread for a new season.

Although summer 2016 is now behind us the storm season is not as traditionally thunderstorms still occur for the first part of Autumn at least. Summer as a whole was probably quite disappointing for a lot of people wanting storms. There were numerous thunderstorms during the first half of June and it was one of the best starts to summer for storms in recent years. Since then storms have been very few and far between.

The old thread is here

Please try to keep on topic and keep this to discussions regarding convective weather, severe weather and all things stormy.

Onto the here and now. I expect this may change but I am seeing the risk of something thundery tomorrow across Ireland during the day and then spreading into NW England through the evening. CAPE increases across these parts and this will be coupled with other ingredients such as shear and helicity. I will have another look this evening to see if it is worth me putting any meat onto the bones but at least worth an eye at this stage I think. Could be some overnight lightning and thunder for N England in general if it comes off.

 

 

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Weather pro app have a level two thunder storm alert for Saturday evening here

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yep, tomorrow night has sparked my interest, as there seems to be a bit of instability around post front.  It would be nice to have a night like last Saturday night again. 

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17 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

The storm alarm has gone off on my  weather station:cc_confused:

Well I've had a few showers, nothing anywhere near stormy though.

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4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Well I've had a few showers, nothing anywhere near stormy though.

Got drizzle and the alarm is going off:rofl:

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9 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Got drizzle and the alarm is going off:rofl:

lol

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 03 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 04 Sep 2016

ISSUED 20:32 UTC Fri 02 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

A complex low pressure and associated fronts will cross southern Britain during Saturday bringing heavy rain to places and the potential of some strong gusts to coastal areas in Wales and SW England. Some embedded convection cant be ruled out in the heavy rain as it moves through, but lightning seems unlikely. Once its cleared to the east later in the afternoon and into the evening a highly sheared (40-50kts DLS) and weakly unstable (200 j/kg CAPE) airmass will overspread southern Britain. During this time isolated fast moving sharp showers or a few thunderstorms will be possible. Narrow lines of more intense convection may develop into the evening hours in a zone from southern Ireland, across north Wales, Liverpool Bay and over to the Humber estuary. Given the shear in this zone a few weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-09-03

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Heavy ppn along the south coast of Cornwall, and a few sferics detected out to sea

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MO not having anything tonight, but the risk seems to still b there. 

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

MO not having anything tonight, but the risk seems to still b there. 

Hopefully, 1 - nil to the Germans?!

2016-09-03 (1).png

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Think there is a risk of thunder embedded in linear convection that may develop along cold front as it slowly clears S England this evening and overnight. Otherwise, post frontal airmass with steeper lapse rates could support one or two storms amongst heavy showers moving in from the west across western areas and Ireland overnight. Say the risk is small of catching a storm, but given decent shear, could be potential for isolated severe weather.

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_030916.png

Issued 2016-09-03 14:57:12

Valid: 03/09/2016 06z to 04/09/2016 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SAT 3RD-SEPT-2016

Synopsis

An upper trough to the west of Ireland Saturday morning will shift east across the UK later and overnight into Sunday morning. An area of surface low pressure also west of Ireland this morning will move east across N England this evening before moving out across the N Sea. Associated fronts will bring a spell of heavy rain across most parts today, cold front clearing SE England and E Anglia in early hours of Sunday could produce convection/thunderstorms and post cold front Pm airmass will also support heavy showers and some thunderstorms

… EIRE, ENGLAND and WALES …

Upper trough and associated cold air aloft moving in from the west this evening will steepen lapse rates across the above areas this evening and overnight, behind the frontal rainfall clearing east today. Some lines of convection/embedded storms may develop along or just ahead of the cold front clearing this evening/overnight across S England – as this colder air aloft overruns the warm/moist airmass ahead of front which is being forced to ascend along the front. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will likely affect western areas of England along with Wales and EIRE later today and overnight.

Fairly strong DL shear in the order of 30-50 knots maybe supportive of storm organisation, with strong convective wind gusts and torrential rain leading to localised flooding possible – particularly with any line convection along or near the cold front . Strong low-level shear just ahead of the cold font, with winds veering with height, may support long-lived linear cells or bowing line segments that may produce hail and an isolated brief/weak tornado too. Have issued a MARGINAL risk across S England and perhaps S Wales for the low severe risk along cold front as it slowly clears this evening and overnight.

Otherwise, post frontal storm risk is covered by a general thunderstorm area for isolated risk of storms that may produce hail, gusty winds and localised flooding.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited by Nick F
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Thunderstorm currently out to sea looks like it has the Bristol Channel in its sights. There is no telling if it will still be a storm by the time it reaches land though.

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35 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Thunderstorm currently out to sea looks like it has the Bristol Channel in its sights. There is no telling if it will still be a storm by the time it reaches land though.

Looks like it's losing it's intensity as it nears land, but some decent rainfall in those showers and the ones currently in south Wales.

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I can report some very angry looking clouds ,wind dropped , Radar now showing what the MET office said recently on their upgrade ,fingers crossed that some of us could see some lightning as its not far off dark now ,best of luck all .

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Some pretty intense echoes with lightning moving in across N Devon / N Somerset currently, must be wild on Exmoor.

First band of moderate rain clearing here in Kent where I am this evening, but it's the second band along second cold front coming through SW England and S Wales that is more active, be interesting if these bowing line segments continue to track further east with the thunder risk, certainly wise to have issued the alerts for flooding.

Nice little storm headed for Dublin too.

Edited by Nick F

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Can clearly see the anvil edge of what's moving in at the moment, above some lower stuff moving by a lot quicker. Could get very wet very soon. Not sure about thundery activity though, seemed to be more active further west.

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TORRO have a Convective Discussion out for S Wales, central and S England too ... which echoes my thoughts earlier

map.jpg

http://www.torro.org.uk/forecast.php

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My sister is camping on Exmoor! Unfortunately she has naff all signal so I'll not get an update unless she a)finds a pub b) comes home

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Some big clouds about now looking nice just after sunset 

 

It's gone very still and feeling warm

Edited by carl1980

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11 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

My sister is camping on Exmoor! Unfortunately she has naff all signal so I'll not get an update unless she a)finds a pub b) comes home

As much as I love watching storms, don't envy anyone in a tent on Exmoor right now! Hopefully in a nice warm and dry pub or in the car, that's where I'd be ...

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 I was in a tent on Anglesey during the MultiCell storm  in the early hours of 20 July. Brilliant, but slightly scary. I knew what I was in for though, did it deliberately. 

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Gusty squally showers passing on and off here ' wind

 do pick up when showers or longer outbreaks of rain arrive' also temperature has risen and feels quite warm and muggy .

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