South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 1st September 2016 onwards

[Optimistic]

It seems the latest met office extended outlook for 8 November to 17 November mention the s word for the high ground of the south east 

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Optimistic said:

It seems the latest met office extended outlook for 8 November to 17 November mention the s word for the high ground of the south east 

I'm below sea level

[frozencanals]

Afternoon all,

It was my first car window scraping event this morning, it was 1 degree (according to my car) in Southend this morning, saw -2 in Leicestershire on my way to Nottingham.  It clouded over quite quickly after the early morning sunshine....

Cheers

FC

 

[Captain Shortwave]

A frosty start again, there was a lot of high level cloud but also some hazy sunshine at times.

[alexisj9]

It's raining, didn't expect it lol. 

[lassie23]

4 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

It's raining, didn't expect it lol. 

8.4c here, didn't expect that temp.

Edited November 4, 2016 by lassie23

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

8.4c here, didn't expect that temp.

Temp went right up to 10 before starting to head back down again here. Originally gt down to 7.4, from a high of 11.1. It's now 9.1 and droping.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Temp went right up to 10 before starting to head back down again here. Originally gt down to 7.4, from a high of 11.1. It's now 9.1 and droping.

I  was expecting a frost

[Ben Lewis]

Just had a read through the MOD thread. Yep you've guessed it.. The ECM and UKMO have followed the GFS ( Bog standard Late Autumn Winter affair)

In my opinion the GFS is the strongest model and many many times the Euros have lagged behind every winter. I feel for the folk in the MOD thread.. it must be exhausting phantom chasing.

You never know, the models could switch back to something colder and drier in 12 hours.. Odds are pretty low though.

 

[lassie23]

9 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Just had a read through the MOD thread. Yep you've guessed it.. The ECM and UKMO have followed the GFS ( Bog standard Late Autumn Winter affair)

In my opinion the GFS is the strongest model and many many times the Euros have lagged behind every winter. I feel for the folk in the MOD thread.. it must be exhausting phantom chasing.

You never know, the models could switch back to something colder and drier in 12 hours.. Odds are pretty low though.

 

They will ignore the gfs again in the future, if the ecm shows them what they want to see,they never learn

[Blessed Weather]

Looks like most of us will see a bit of rain today; it's just started here. But it's the developing area of rain that's moving along southern coastal counties that caught my eye. Looking like a very wet spell for Sussex and Kent later this afternoon. That'll make the bonfires soggy!

Radar 08.50  10.45

Arpege 06z for 17.00

[alexisj9]

Yep it was forecast this morning, very heavy rain for the SE coast. Must be slightly further north than thought though  as it didn't hit the SW at all in the forecast. and that other stuff north of the more south stuff, wasn't in the forecast I saw, that was showers, not a band of rain.

[Ben Lewis]

Correct, BBC and ITV TV forecasts this morning had Hertfordshire dry with only heavier rain affecting Sussex and Kent. I can confirm is raining moderately here for the past 1 Hour.

Unreal that in this day and age Weather Services still cant get an accurate forecast 3 hours out.

Edited November 4, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[Dami]

So I look at the radar as you do, to decide what coat to put on. See there is rain about but a fair distance from me. Choose grey wool coat with a hood and ankle boots. Go outside thought i felt a drip. Then by the time bubs gets in the school gate its chucking it down and i'm in my non water proof coat with an oversized' can't see out of hood' feeling stupid. 

But it was a lovely temperature. AT least I didn't feel cold. 

Then i notice a movement in the garden and realise it is a small mouse that has probably had it's home dug up in place for a recycling centre. Fine great super. And we don't own a cat.

 

 

[alexisj9]

The closer it's getting to me, the heavier that rain heading for here is looking. Must be orographic lift from the north downs.

Edited November 4, 2016 by alexisj9

[lassie23]

Heavy rain here in London.

[Daniel*]

I can see why Ian discussed potential for 'snowfall' in SE corner of England I would raise an eyebrow if I lived on a big hill I think most will see cold rain showers. Nice convergence zone the fax is modelling T+120 which takes us to Tuesday, hard to call, maybe Tamara will see something with that elevation.  

Edited November 4, 2016 by Changing Skies.

[Dami]

just about clear here now, lovely yellowy sunset.

Fish and chips for tea after swimming.

Lovely.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Grim afternoon here just stopped raining after starting around 1pm

Suprise suprise the models are all pulling round to an above average temps from mid next week as we pull in some very mild air.

I love a good cold harsh winter and love all kinds of weather. But I won't get sucked into getting "excited" over cold wind and a tiny bit of frost at the start of November, nor say that it looks better for cold this year than before without waiting to see what happens further into November. 

Once you fire that Atlantic up it can be bloody hard to close it down...

 

[Jimmyh]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Grim afternoon here just stopped raining after starting around 1pm

Suprise suprise the models are all pulling round to an above average temps from mid next week as we pull in some very mild air.

I love a good cold harsh winter and love all kinds of weather. But I won't get sucked into getting "excited" over cold wind and a tiny bit of frost at the start of November, nor say that it looks better for cold this year than before without waiting to see what happens further into November. 

Once you fire that Atlantic up it can be bloody hard to close it down...

 

@surrey

Please mate explain to me where you see a train of low pressure systems waiting in the atlantic to unleash itself. Nowhere. Nothing like the previous 3 autumns. as I said earlier a couple of pages back. There is no roaring huge purple PV that is organised itself this year. No-one is banging on about it being different what we are trying to say and in a very amateur way I am picking up signals like everyone else. At the end of the day no one knows wot the weather will do. I have already had ice on the car this year. something not achieved at all during the whole of 2013-2014 and most of last year as well.

If we have a cold December the I for one will be happy as I hate mild dross. love a good storm. This feels like a cold weekend coming up we shall see.   

[Dami]

I can safely say that in my square foot of Bedfordshire it isn't going to snow from December 20th onwards so I'm going to hibernate till it's the thunder storm season again. 

 

[lassie23]

19 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Grim afternoon here just stopped raining after starting around 1pm

Suprise suprise the models are all pulling round to an above average temps from mid next week as we pull in some very mild air.

I love a good cold harsh winter and love all kinds of weather. But I won't get sucked into getting "excited" over cold wind and a tiny bit of frost at the start of November, nor say that it looks better for cold this year than before without waiting to see what happens further into November. 

Once you fire that Atlantic up it can be bloody hard to close it down...

 

Horrible day here too, it was on the cards that a proper cold spell would be dumped by the models eventually, I think November will be average. Not sure why people still need to comment on or take every model run seriously. People say they love the chase and the ride they get in the MOD thread, but it is counter productive, if you are just going to be left seriously disappointed at the end.

Edited November 4, 2016 by lassie23

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Dami said:

I can safely say that in my square foot of Bedfordshire it isn't going to snow from December 20th onwards so I'm going to hibernate till it's the thunder storm season again. 

 

I think you will get sleet on the 21st

[Dami]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think you will get sleet on the 21st

I won't be setting any alarms.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

I won't be setting any alarms.

4pm thankfully.