South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 1st September 2016 onwards

[lassie23]

10 minutes ago, Dami said:

I don't know, judging from last years, probably a bit of a waste to snow watch here in December sadly. Probably no point in january either.

April?

[Dami]

The way things seem to sift forward, I say never say never!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sunshine now 

[essex coast matt]

Just had heavy shower,with a small T Storm just a few miles off the coast,1st proper heavy rain for ages

[alexisj9]

Have had plenty of showers through, two with thunder, one of those last night, and at about 11ish this morning.

[lassie23]

sunny afternoon here

[Milocation]

 

Just now, lassie23 said:

sunny afternoon here

Same!

[lassie23]

Just now, LimoPreacherman said:

 

Same!

Raining all morning so the sun is welcome

[Milocation]

Literally the same here

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:

Literally the same here

cold as well lol

[Emz by the Thames]

Well we've had a bit of everything today - fog early this morning (I bounced out of bed - "Fog!! Fog!!!"), rain cleared the fog in seconds, rained very heavy, cloudy, then glimpses sun, then warm sun and blues skies, the dark cloud, then thunderstorm! Don't you love autumn! 

Was recently reminded of this October day:http://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/photosales/photogalleries/snow2008/22/

I went to ASDA and when I came out I was gobsmacked - everything was coated. Not as gobsmacked as my sister and her boyfriend who were visiting and camping in the garden as we have no spare bedroom!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Weather-wise, the conditions were not the write off which seemed to be predicted, the sun was out until around midday, there was some showery rain for an hour or so and then it has brightened up again. It does feel rather cool today though.

[80sWeather]

Just had a nice thunderstorm here with hail too.

[Dami]

Bit o' rain this morning, other than that just cloudy/sunny and any thing decent looking breaking up before it gets here.

[lassie23]

Had a heavy shower and a double rainbow a few hours ago.

[Dami]

bubs got soaked and caked in mud while she was and covered her rainbows top in a coffee like strain which didn't come out in the wash

[Blessed Weather]

As Surrey said this morning, given today's set-up with bands of showers, sometimes heavy and thundery, and with an occluded front that would move north, stop, and then pivot and move south again, it's been a struggle for the high res models to accurately forecast the rainfall amounts for specific locations. Arpege certainly got it wrong on this morning's (overnight 0z) output, suggesting the Wash and north Norfolk area would see just a few mm of rain.

Arpege accum precip to midnight tonight

Well this afternoon it was belting down in that area as the front moved slightly further north than anticipated, and this evening the front has done it's pivot and is now returning south to give an encore for the same area. As a result weather stations up there were already recording 11mm by late afternoon, with totals no doubt rising further this evening.

Radar 15.50  22.20

But..... whilst struggling with today's synoptics, high res models do play an important role in daily forecasts and it's interesting to dig out an old quote from fergieweather from a year or so back about what models the Met Office use for short term forecasts. Interesting that they never use NMM but do use Euro4 and Arpege:

"NMM is never cited by UKMO (ditto likes of Hirlam or CFS), nor have I ever heard it discussed in verbal briefings (we have these ordinarily 4x daily to hear Chief Forecaster's prognosis). So I doubt it is used in any operational sense. But for the <72hr to <24hr lead, key models used for comparative purposes are Euro4, UKV (this will ultimately become primary short-lead UK model), UKMO-GM & MOGREPS; ECMWF; GFS and very often ARPEGE".

[Reefseeker]

14 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

As Surrey said this morning, given today's set-up with bands of showers, sometimes heavy and thundery, and with an occluded front that would move north, stop, and then pivot and move south again, it's been a struggle for the high res models to accurately forecast the rainfall amounts for specific locations.

Well this afternoon it was belting down in that area as the front moved slightly further north than anticipated, and this evening the front has done it's pivot and is now returning south to give an encore for the same area. As a result weather stations up there were already recording 11mm by late afternoon, with totals no doubt rising further this evening.

Well, for the mini-school reunion, how the rainfall amounts affected us this morning. Poor chapesses arriving from the west country and the midlands were greeted at West Kensington at 9.30 am with torrential rain and semi-flooded roads that had us all soaked through and taking most of the morning at Kensington Palace to dry out (what a lovely park by the way). A calm midday followed, then the skies flared up around 3.30, when dark black clouds with thick bases appeared out of an almost clear-blue sky to create beautiful lit-up rain falling heavily in the sunlight and leaving rainbows galore from West Ken to Wimbledon. It has continued to rain this evening, but it looks good for a sunny day driving across Salisbury Plain to the west country in the morning. 

[lassie23]

10C and falling

[Blessed Weather]

Bright and breezy here this morning with odds and ends of low cloud zipping along at a rate of knots. Had a brief shower an hour ago. Currently 13C.

Satellite shows cloud streaming down the North Sea and clipping eastern counties. Hopefully everything shuffles a bit further east sooner rather than later so we lose the wind and cloud.

I'm wondering if some favoured 'frost spots' in the Region (my location included) might squeeze a ground frost tonight? Temps away from the coast are forecast to drop to 4C or 5C. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Lots of sunshine to start here, the coming looks pretty sunny and quite warm for a time, turning cloudier later in the week with the risk of a little rain or some showers moving in from the east potentially.

[lassie23]

looks like stainsbloke will be complaining about vile easterlies in stead of vile westerlies

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

He should move to the central midlands then, less affected by all! Lol

[Dami]

Just been out with bubs for a walk round the village so she can ride her scooter, it's seriously T-shirt weather STILL out there and for someone who puts on 8 layers at any stiff of cold that is saying something - cosy cardie off, thin jumper sleeves rolled up, even the wind was refreshing rather than annoying.

Talking of annoying can't get the weird stains off bubs rainbows top, wasn't there when she went on her trip and after much rubbing and extra washing, it now looks like the tops not been washed for months. It's like a bleach stain like someones splashed her, found marks all over. Not happy when I've made sure the uniform is looked after.

On hubs lappy now and the M key sticks'cos he split coke on it a while back so that's annoying 

Everything's annoying, even yesterdays showers did nothing here in the end.

annoying. 

[lassie23]

25 minutes ago, Dami said:

Just been out with bubs for a walk round the village so she can ride her scooter, it's seriously T-shirt weather STILL out there and for someone who puts on 8 layers at any stiff of cold that is saying something - cosy cardie off, thin jumper sleeves rolled up, even the wind was refreshing rather than annoying.

Talking of annoying can't get the weird stains off bubs rainbows top, wasn't there when she went on her trip and after much rubbing and extra washing, it now looks like the tops not been washed for months. It's like a bleach stain like someones splashed her, found marks all over. Not happy when I've made sure the uniform is looked after.

On hubs lappy now and the M key sticks'cos he split coke on it a while back so that's annoying 

Everything's annoying, even yesterdays showers did nothing here in the end.

annoying. 

tried vanish