Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I can't see the ecm being wrong on this gfs to backtrack today 

Heck of a lot of uncertainty that far out though abbie

 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Here you go, interesting reading from the METO.

Yes, intriguing. Next week remains tricky: as of last night, a switch to a more mobile, milder W'ly pattern was slightly more favoured to emerge onwards into mid-month (60% prob), albeit the opposite scenario (retention of cold blocked set-up) had fairly sizeable minority backing (40%). The 00z EC ENS are awaited, of course, to assess level of support for the deterministic run. In many respects, recent GFS runs towards mid-month seem over-cooked (re scope of more vigorous westerly patterns) and are viewed with suspicion. The more favoured outcome at present remains a slightly higher chance of a transient westerly phase into mid-month (coupled to a bounce-back in temps), but a likely resumption of cold, blocked scenarios later in Nov (postage stamps from GloSea showing a variety of these). As we've seen in previous winters, expect operational models to struggle/take a few bites to adequately synthesise the route ahead, set against emergent influences (MJO expected into phase 7/8; and ongoing stratospheric shenanigans).

 

40% showing a blocked set up - this could still go either way I guess.

where is this 'quiote' from please?

[snowflakey]

I seem to remember ECM " leading us up the garden path" on quite a few occasions over the last couple of horrendous winters.. Lets hope its. GFS being over keen on letting the Atlantic in on this occasion..

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

where is this 'quiote' from please?

Ian F in the SW Regional

 

Edited November 3, 2016 by karlos1983

[Ali1977]

Just now, johnholmes said:

where is this 'quiote' from please?

SW England thread from this morning John.

[mother nature rocks]

Just been watching Weatherbell daily update from yesterday. Joe bastardi saying that global patterns for now pretty much same as 1950( not just America). Looking at late Nov/Dec for over here in that year then we could all be in for a good time. Enjoy!!

[sundog]

5 minutes ago, snowflakey said:

I seem to remember ECM " leading us up the garden path" on quite a few occasions over the last couple of horrendous winters.. Lets hope its. GFS being over keen on letting the Atlantic in on this occasion..

Indeed ,the ecm certainly owes coldies one after some of its teasings the last few winters. I would go 60/40 in favour of the ecm being correct this time.

[Ali1977]

I can't post pictures, but I think the GFS has gone towards the ECM - albeit a little further East....12Z may move this west, then it's game on.

The warmer air isn't getting into the UK on this run, the block is fighting back. 850s don't get above freezing. Aberdeen day 8 -  00z 850 = 8c,  06z 850 = - 2c  

Lets see if the GEFS give us any info, if it is a full fightback i'd hope a few start showing the ECMs idea.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Ali1977

[Ravelin]

Are we starting to see the GFS come towards the ECM?

GFS 0Z   GFS 6Z

More ridging towards Greenland and over Scandinavia at this point.

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I can't post pictures, but I think the GFS has gone towards the ECM - albeit a little further East....12Z may move this west, then it's game on.

Yes that sums it up, is that our compromise I wonder.... I certainly hope not.

00z06z

Edited November 3, 2016 by karlos1983

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Are we starting to see the GFS come towards the ECM?

GFS 0Z   GFS 6Z

More ridging towards Greenland and over Scandinavia at this point.

certainly leaning more towards the Ecm on this run    Totaly different pattern 

Edited November 3, 2016 by weirpig

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

certainly leaning more towards the Ecm on this run

Definitely , in my amateur eyes...

ECM 0Z t192

GFS 6z t186

GFS 0Z t192

 

[weirpig]

Gfs  totally different at a relatively short time range.  Slighty different times  but you get the idea

 

[Zakos]

GFS height anomaly at +174

00z06z

This is a recurring theme from the GFS. it is consistently underestimating the low heights over Europe. It is also consistently underestimating the strength of blocking in the Atlantic.

The effects are even more noticeable at +204

00z06z

The GFS is far too eager to flatten the pattern and remove low heights (and the cold pool) from Europe. 

00z06z

It is also consistently underestimating the flow of WAA into the arctic.

on the 06z we have a pronounced flow of WAA into the Canadian arctic on Tuesday. On the 00z, it is a far more slack and less effective flow.

ECM GFS

ECM and GFS height anomaly at +216 hours. I dont see any signs of the Atlantic returning anytime soon as some people are suggesting. Are the models not, especially the GFS, infamous for overestimating the speed of removal of entrenched cold over Europe? 

Cold air and certainly snow are not guaranteed for the UK, but im not seeing any signs of blocking in the Atlantic weakening.

 

Edited November 3, 2016 by Zakos

[Ravelin]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Gfs  totally different at a relatively short time range.

Still not getting the Scandi heights on the GFS, but no one would expect it to backtrack in one run, if it ever does.

ECM 0Z GFS 6Z 

But as @weirpig points out, a massive change from the run just 6hrs ago...

GFS 0Z

[SMU]

All continues to go as on expected really-

The GFS movement to the euros is because its now starting to resolve the energy better & seeing it drop south instead of east-

thats why the euro heights are a lot lower around 180-192

watch the 12z continue this pattern with more energy moving south - Futher enhancing the undcut- 

standard fair really.

[legritter]

At this point looking at current charts and reading chatter on weather sites etc ,next week is looking cold to start then one big question mark as to where we go after next wednesday .

Todays Met office update could throw a few clues in as to what they see that we dont ,and tonights main players will i,m sure be eagerly watched  perhaps from behind the firniture ,with my dog wagging his tail ,one wag for atlantic dross six wags for cold continental ,Great posts today ,cheers gang  .

[SylvainTV]

2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Hi, Chris. I don't know about the JMA op as it is not part of the verification comparisons provided by NCEP:

 

JMA stats are available for the 12Z runs, the 0Z run does not go far enough :

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/

 

Besides, I have added again the NCMRWF model, they now run the MetOffice Unified Model for their model (but not the same assimilation) once a day. Not many fields to look at though.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ncmrwfe_cartes.php

Edited November 3, 2016 by SylvainTV

[weirpig]

Looking at the Gfs Ensembles  their are quite a few now going for a ECM type of solution with the energy droping more south  however most if not all have the pattern a little to far east at this juncture.    Loads still to be resolved 

Edited November 3, 2016 by weirpig

[Ali1977]

28 minutes ago, SylvainTV said:

JMA stats are available for the 12Z runs, the 0Z run does not go far enough :

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/

 

Besides, I have added again the NCMRWF model, they now run the MetOffice Unified Model for their model (but not the same assimilation) once a day. Not many fields to look at though.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ncmrwfe_cartes.php

ECM the form horse of most occasions then ?

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS mean right at the end of the run looks mightily impressive, weve had the murr special with the correction towards amplification, now weve got the BA special ie- the trough sinking south of us, in such a setup one might expect " 'runners'  around the base of the trough".

 

 

 

[knocker]

No worthwhile differences to mention between the 06z GFS and 00z and in the same ball park at T240. The differences are all essentially to do with volatile evolution of the interaction between the war and cold air.

Edited November 3, 2016 by knocker

[Allseasons-Si]

The navgem has the trough disruption @144 hrs

so gfs is on it's own but catchy! catchy!....

Edit:forgot about the gem oops!

id take the nasa geoss past 174

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geose_cartes.php?ech=3&code=0&mode=1&carte=0&archive=0

Edited November 3, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[tight isobar]

GFS clearly seems as-per' over enthusiastic with mobility and block destruction. 

And has massive data misinterpretation with dealing in such scenarios. 

The Ecmwf' had a major wobble itself last season . However in such scenario as at current face value (moreso) 0hrs-168' is imo vastly superior to the former.

Think gfs will however show compliance in coming suites. 

I know where my money's at!

Edited November 3, 2016 by tight isobar
miss type

[Nouska]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS mean right at the end of the run looks mightily impressive, weve had the murr special with the correction towards amplification, now weve got the BA special ie- the trough sinking south of us, in such a setup one might expect " 'runners'  around the base of the trough".

 

 

 

ECM ensemble mean at 360 hours is not showing anything way below average 850 temp wise but it does indicate the direction of travel will not be the S. westerly, mild variety of the last couple of Novembers.