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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

I think to be more charitable you could argue the 00Z GEFS has a number of options very much on the table at T+168 and while the strength of the jet and the strengthening vortex carries the day on the OP it's not a unanimous scenario by any means.

The critical difference is the Scandinavian HP is destroyed by the GFS OP at T+120 which allows the jet to power through whereas on ECM the jet is weaker, the Scandinavian HP survives and strengthens and the block is preserved.

The strength of the jet is the key - if GFS has it right, we're probably looking at 10-14 days of Atlantic-dominated weather through mid month whereas if ECM is right, a more blocked scenario is on the cards.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I'm not sure the ens are that useful at the moment because they will for sure by skewed if they are wrong at the critical juncture , ie 96-120 hrs.

One would expect at that range the higher res ops to have a better handle on the crucial developments, and the way the energy from the jet is transfered. :)

^^

Agree with the above post :)

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

We are looking at small differences in the various suites that for the UK make big differences in where this little block heads (Squashed South by a stronger jet or a Scandy high), we are only talking 6 days away so not exactly FI.  I really hope the ECM is correct but looking at the 6-15 day METO I'd say their models are pointing more in line with the GFS at this stage. As someone mentioned earlier, I think by the end of today we'll know which way this is heading.

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Morning all  Just a quick question  is the ECM still the king when it comes to verification up to 144?  Has anyone got a link to the verification stats ?

Yep. ECM > UKMO > GFS 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Bang on. Which is why you should take any attempts to talk down an ECM outcome using GFS means as an argument with a pinch of salt! ECM is still the king of models, throw in UKMO and JMA and you have a good suite to make decent forecasts on.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Indeed, however the metoffice seem to be leaning towards a more mobile set up(ala gfs) than the blocked scenario (ala ukmo/ecm). :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Morning all  Just a quick question  is the ECM still the king when it comes to verification up to 144?  Has anyone got a link to the verification stats ?

The Ecm is definitely king when it comes to scandi blocks..nuff said!:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Indeed, however the metoffice seem to be leaning towards a more mobile set up(ala gfs) than the blocked scenario (ala ukmo/ecm). :)

METO are leaning towards a more mobile set up, but 40% showing a blocked set still gives those ECM charts a decent chance of verifying.  Not sure what time the 00z EC ENS come out. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

METO are leaning towards a more mobile set up, but 40% showing a blocked set still gives those ECM charts a decent chance of verifying.  Not sure what time the 00z EC ENS come out. 

The ecm mean is not really supportive of the op, but the ens mean will be pointless if they are wrong at 96 - 120 - in short its very complex but i think by the end of today we will have a decent idea.(ie either ukmo/ecm or gfs will jump ship from the respective positions).:)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Btw, if the more mobile pattern is the winner here then the eps extended point to it not lasting much beyond mid month as the PFJ sink south and the upper trough to our east retrogresses a little and  sharpens.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS mean does support the det, run at T!44 where the energy from the west splits the HP from the Azores ridging NE and forces heights to build over northern  Scandinavia for a time. But the key player is the strength of the Azores to the west of the UK so temps do tend to rise towards the end of the ten day period. This continues into the ext period but the HP does retrogress and the trough more in evidence over the UK

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_natl_11.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Cold lovers chart of the day from ECM. Classic cyclonic trough distruption of the advancing front that will create a cut of circulation into France with possible quasi - stationary cold front over SE Britain. Could eventually give way to some real cold advection from the East. However, the forecasting of this is very hard to predict, in comparison the other N American models are not going along this route.. In the coldest of winters , this picture becomes a regular feature and is hard to displace. I hope we are on the cusp of something very special for a real cold winter to start. I will have a chat with Offenbach guys later this morning to get there view on this chart coming off. Could be interesting. Meanwhile we are currently having the ski lifts weighted and  safety tested in the resort, that's a  sure sign that winter is just around the corner.

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

If we look at t192 ECM has made a big change overnight

ECMOPEU00_192_1.pngECMOPEU12_192_1.png

                        00z                                                                    12z

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If we look at t192 ECM has made a big change overnight

ECMOPEU00_192_1.pngECMOPEU12_192_1.png

                        00z                                                                    12z

Indeed Gavin, looks much better now!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's not often we see charts as good as this so early in November but the Ecm 00z keeps the dream alive that the cold spell will be extended!:santa-emoji:

GEFS 00z P1 agrees!

48_mslp850uk.png

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850uk.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850.png

1_240_850tmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Gibby said:

Definitely a stand off between the Euros and the Americans this morning. My full thoughts are on my website but I have banked my money on the Euros having a better handle on things at the moment. If only it was one or two months time.

I'm not sure Gibby-

I think its 50/50.

I find it fascinating viewing - i'd like the euro to be right, nothing to do with winter, i just want to see some cold blocked foggy/frosty weather in November.

I most certainly don't want GFS to be correct in any shape whatsover as it will bring a period of mild sw gunk with associated wind and rain,esp for my neck of the woods.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I have to say if it wasn't going to materialize I was expecting the Euro's to back down this morning, I didn't think we would be in the same position today observing the GFS 06z waiting to see if it will fall in line or persist with the more mobile pattern. 

That said, I seem to remember this happening a few times last winter, GFS stood firm, flirted with the idea of agreeing with the Euro's, only to swiftly move back again, and then the others followed. Different setup altogether at the moment I know, but still.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I have to say if it wasn't going to materialize I was expecting the Euro's to back down this morning, I didn't think we would be in the same position today observing the GFS 06z waiting to see if it will fall in line or persist with the more mobile pattern. 

That said, I seem to remember this happening a few times last winter, GFS stood firm, flirted with the idea of agreeing with the Euro's, only to swiftly move back again, and then the others followed. Different setup altogether at the moment I know, but still.

The GFS 6 is notorious for been over progressive mind so wait for the 12 I would 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I most certainly don't want GFS to be correct in any shape whatsover as it will bring a period of mild sw gunk with associated wind and rain,esp for my neck of the woods.

That is certainly what the GEFS 00z mean indicates with ebb and flow of the Azores high and lower heights to the nw / n / ne.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That is certainly what the GEFS 00z mean indicates with ebb and flow of the Azores high and lower heights to the nw / n / ne.

Looks like the 06z is having none of the ECMs idea on this run - however the low swinging out of Greenland doesn't look to be as intrusive on the block as the last run, so maybe a little move towards it.

Edited by Ali1977
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