Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

Well no sign of the milder atlantic making inroads across the bulk of the uk next week on the Ecm 12z, high pressure with crisp bright chilly days and frosty nights with an increasing risk of freezing fog, not a sniff of those south - westerly zephyrs

Edited November 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

If i could describe ecm in two words it would be frost, and probably fog!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Snow and storms said:

the high pressure laying down to our south west at 168hrs, is this not considered a bartlett high? i struggle to see this moving any time fast especially with the jet riding over the top and a weak polar vortex. Would i be right in saying that we can either hope for an easterly high to push it west/a north easterly to slide against it/it to link up with a long draw scandi high? 

Theres low pressure over Europe, a Bartlett is like above, covers the whole of continental Europe and sticks around remaining robust.

[Summer Sun]

The next week sees precipitation staying below average week 2 could see this increase especially so for northern and western Scotland

[phil nw.]

Just signs that we lose the marked ridging in the Atlantic flow as it topples across us next week with the northern jet sweeping across to the north by then.

In the meantime quite a chilly week to come with the flood of cold air coming down from the north especially over the weekend.Single figure max's and frosts at night in the forecasts now and for a few days to come.

At present the main mobility in the weather looks to be further north and  It could well be the high remains close to the UK's latitude in week 2 maintaining the chilly feel as lower pressure over C.Europe is shown.

[blizzard81]

On 29/10/2016 at 23:45, Ravelin said:

 

The CFS ensemble 500 hpa mean anomaly for week 4 (last week in november) shows very impressive Greenland heights. Incredible for a mean chart. Sorry, can't post the chart.

 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The CFS ensemble 500 hpa mean anomaly for week 4 (last week in november) shows very impressive Greenland heights. Incredible for a mean chart. Sorry, can't post the chart.

 

Sounds good to me! Hopefully with the vortex sat across Scandy

[coldwinter]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The CFS ensemble 500 hpa mean anomaly for week 4 (last week in november) shows very impressive Greenland heights. Incredible for a mean chart. Sorry, can't post the chart.

 

This one?  

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

This one?  

That's the baby

[Johnp]

Run of the evening has to be JMA...Sorry can someone post the charts?

It shows an easterly at day 8 with -8c uppers.

Hopefully a trend setter. :-)

[knocker]

Just need to nudge this warm plume a little further east and Sid wil be up that tree before you can say nuts

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Run of the evening has to be JMA...Sorry can someone post the charts?

It shows an easterly at day 8 with -8c uppers.

Hopefully a trend setter. :-)

 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Run of the evening has to be JMA...Sorry can someone post the charts?

It shows an easterly at day 8 with -8c uppers.

Hopefully a trend setter. :-)

Nice 

 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Run of the evening has to be JMA...Sorry can someone post the charts?

It shows an easterly at day 8 with -8c uppers.

Hopefully a trend setter. :-)

Here they are..very impressive JMA 12z

Karlos beat me to it, too many Karl's on netweather. lol

Edited November 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[Aiden2012]

Cracking JMA iv had a gut feeling it could turn into a easterly hope it does

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Cracking JMA iv had a gut feeling it could turn into a easterly hope it does

Yes it's an Epic end to the JMA run, I'm sure Teits would love this chart too 

[Polar Maritime]

Some off topic posts have been hidden, Please keep on topic with sensible discussion based on current Model Output, Thanks please continue.

[phil nw.]

Yes JMA maintains the cold high further north and makes more of the European low thus we do see cold uppers heading this way from the continent.

Quite a possible evolution with the PV still under strength as indicated by the continuing +ve height anomalies over the pole.That run weakens the northern jet and sees a re-invigorated Scandinavian high from day 6.ECM next best for this and shows a high across the UK.

Plenty of changes to come for later next week i think until modeling decides on how much influence the Atlantic will have on it's attempts to push away this colder spell.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Folks , perhaps the models are down playing the up coming cold spell, the 500mb chart shows a likeness to 2010 in the next few days albeit a little later in the month. Fascinating to say the least!!!

[knocker]

Pretty unequivocal from NOAA with average confidence

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM 12z no problem for me. HP domination is good.  Another burst of Indian summer?  As long as the Atlantic doesn't take hold then on my long range method all is good

 

BFTP

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

53 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Run of the evening has to be JMA...Sorry can someone post the charts?

It shows an easterly at day 8 with -8c uppers.

Hopefully a trend setter. :-)

 

Forgive me for asking, Moderators (genuine question), but isn't the JMA a bit of a joke model (or at least rather unreliable), or am I thinking of something else?

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

Forgive me for asking, Moderators (genuine question), but isn't the JMA a bit of a joke model (or at least rather unreliable), or am I thinking of something else?

Usually yes but, sometimes, it forecasts loads of snow...And, in such situations, it's the beez neez!

[Met4Cast]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

Forgive me for asking, Moderators (genuine question), but isn't the JMA a bit of a joke model (or at least rather unreliable), or am I thinking of something else?

It's taken for canon fodder by most people though the Met Office do rate it and sometimes use it to aid with forecasting.

GFS seems to be a little on it's own this evening with the ECM standing it's ground and the UKMO agreeing with it in some ways. GFS made a small movement towards the ECM, I wonder if we'll see it completely agree with tonights pub run?

[Frosty.]

It certainly looks as though next week will be colder for longer compared to yesterday's output, hopefully this trend will be maintained / strengthened tomorrow. The Ecm is known as the top model and for most of the uk it shows cold air and at least cold surface conditions lasting through to T+240 and beyond!