Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Good job the para ecm wasn't the op or Steve would have been uncontrollable !!

more an undercut than a slider and then low heading back west towards uk from our east before the run ends with a potential rinse and repeat 

scandi high in situ 

Is there anywhere that we can see the Para ECM? Sounds interesting, and similar or better than the Op for us coldies.

[feb1991blizzard]

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Good job the para ecm wasn't the op or Steve would have been uncontrollable !!

more an undercut than a slider and then low heading back west towards uk from our east before the run ends with a potential rinse and repeat 

scandi high in situ though it tends to slip back towards w Russia with ridging west  

Well I don't know what's going to happen next...Although, way back in December 1962, I used to view the 'para ecm' down a microscope...The rest, as they say, is history?

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's where the trough disrupts against the block and slides se against rather than heading through it.

Okay no problem with that but I would have thought the main feature of the ecm run was the trough heading straight through the HP. I won't say 'block' because, IMHO, the word is misused too often.

Edited November 2, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

There is a lot of uncertainty beyond the cold weekend and first half of next week so the Ecm slider is possible to extend the cold throughout next week and beyond..far more interest for coldies and its not even winter for another month!

Edited November 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

Lets see if the 12z GFS and UKMO have another little step towards this mornings ECM. Fingers crossed but I think this little cold spell is fighting a loosing battle - all the same it is nice to feel some cold air for the first time this year and look forward to the coming deep freeze this winter.....I hope.

[Nouska]

28 minutes ago, knocker said:

Okay no problem with that but I would have thought the main feature of the ecm run was the trough heading straight through the HP. I won't say 'block' because IMHO the word is misused too often.

I'm not terribly au fait with day to day weather and forecasting but is the ECM 168 hour chart not an example of diffluent blocking?

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well I'm not too sure what you mean by differential blocking

I said diffluent in my post and only going by this diagram.

Think it can be called Rex blocking as well - but as I said, more a background science person so maybe writing waffle.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Nouska

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I'm not terribly au fait with day to day weather and forecasting but is the ECM 168 hour chart not an example of diffluent blocking?

Looks quite like one, the low to the South helps fuel the longevity of the high - I think

Edited November 2, 2016 by Ali1977

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I'm not terribly au fait with day to day weather and forecasting but is the ECM 168 hour chart not an example of diffluent blocking?

Well I'm not too sure what you mean by differential blocking  but as I read the run this morning and obviously this is just my opinion, the analysis at T168 shows the energy generated from the Canadian vortex, with some help from the eastern seabord, breaking through the Atlantic ridging, something it's attempted before. After that the trap door is closed with renewed ridging and eventually more amplification in the eastern Atlantic. To reiterate, just my opinion.

 

Edited November 2, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

I can see why there is so much interest in the potential longevity of the cold weather beyond next midweek via the Ecm op / para but we already have our first arctic shot in the bag for this weekend and first part of next week so there should be more focus on that in my opinion.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I can see why there is so much interest in the potential longevity of the cold weather beyond next midweek via the Ecm op / para but we already have our first arctic shot in the bag for this weekend and first part of next week so there should be more focus on that in my opinion.

because its also in the bag that the one this weekend wont get anyone (within a realistic residential location) an absolute pasting so we are trying to deduce when our next shot at getting one will arrive.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

because its also in the bag that the one this weekend wont get anyone (within a realistic residential location) an absolute pasting so we are trying to deduce when our next shot at getting one will arrive.

My point is its the first arctic incursion of the autumn and its being skipped over with barely a mention, some parts of the north will see snow and we will all have widespread frosts with icy patches..it's worthy of a mention.

[SMU]

44 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I still have nighmares about that day

anyway heres the GFS 06z 162 to test the model & see if we gain amplitude of Scandi high

of note is the jet behaving very directional from Iceland across Scotland  - with the amplitude of the 564 line just getting into Norway!

S

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My point is its the first arctic incursion of the autumn and its being skipped over with barely a mention, some parts of the north will see snow and we will all have widespread frosts with icy patches..it's worthy of a mention.

Of course its worthy of a mention as indeed anything weather related is on a forum, its just that the vast majority of people on here now are on here for one reason and despite the fact that a lot of people criticise me for only wanting one weather type, they actually want the same thing but they wont go the whole hog because it offends people who just want to describe the models whatever they do and give an accurate analysis (and a grand job they do as well btw) but the fact that when a heatwave is in progress in summer ive seen as little as 4 online members on the MOD wheras when we are chasing the cold there is a minimum of 200 usually and when a crackerjack chart is within the reliable it goes into the thousands and smashes the online record, the numbers speak for themselves.

 

PS - Steve - 6 inches in brum that day, you just had it stall 10 miles west of you didn't you?

Edited November 2, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Of course its worthy of a mention as indeed anything weather related is on a forum, its just that the vast majority of people on here now are on here for one reason and despite the fact that a lot of people criticise me for only wanting one weather type, they actually want the same thing but they wont go the whole hog because it offends people who just want to describe the models whatever they do and give an accurate analysis (and a grand job they do as well btw) but the fact that when a heatwave is in progress in summer ive seen as little as 4 online members on the MOD wheras when we are chasing the cold there is a minimum of 200 usually and when a crackerjack chart is within the reliable it goes into the thousands and smashes the online record, the numbers speak for themselves.

I'll second all of that. My eyes are looking for phase 2,3,4 err and the rest already 

 

The Low tracking SE seems a little deeper and closer to the UK on this run already, interesting to see if that helps or not

Edited November 2, 2016 by karlos1983

[booferking]

The GFS 12z is slightly more amplified at 96hrs to the north.

[karlos1983]

GFS reluctant to follow the ECM, so Unless the UKMO pulls one out of the hat, I expect a climb down on that front from this evenings ECM.

[Frosty.]

Nice charts these from the Gfs 12z for early November especially northern europe, I could get used to this!

Edited November 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

GFS reluctant to follow the ECM, so Unless the UKMO pulls one out of the hat, I expect a climb down on that front from this evenings ECM.

Agreed , especially as nothing mentioned in METO 6-15 day. Starting to get into the reliable time frames too.

mmm UKMO looks better 

Edited November 2, 2016 by Ali1977

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Agreed , especially as nothing mentioned in METO 6-15 day. Starting to get into the reliable time frames too.

Looks like the UKMO is making more of an effort, trough disruption evident to the west of the UK @ +120

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Looks like the UKMO is making more of an effort, trough disruption evident to the west of the UK @ +120

Its crap at 144 though.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its crap at 144 though.

Yep, too much energy coming of the southern tip of Greenland. But, that means this isn't quite dead yet....it had a go. Expectation level down to 10% though for me

Edited November 2, 2016 by karlos1983

[SMU]

So the GFS makes its first pidgeon steps forward

comparable ( & expected changes ) based on GFS past performances 

- Lower heights in the NE flow expected in decrease by around 8 -12 DAM over the next 48-72 hours

- Scandi High amplitude to increase - it has done on this run so at 168 SE england is still in an Easterly flow where as the 06z had the Easterly sunk into Nw france

- The GFS has difficulty dropping energy South through the block - its tried tovat about 144 on the 12z however lifts it out - where as ECM takes it through as as a slider & the UKMO 144 is starting that same process-

S

[Ali1977]

One thing for sure is that the Alps look like having a very good start to the season - plenty of snow over the next 10 days. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So the GFS makes its first pidgeon steps forward

comparable ( & expected changes ) based on GFS past performances 

- Lower heights in the NE flow expected in decrease by around 8 -12 DAM over the next 48-72 hours

- Scandi High amplitude to increase - it has done on this run so at 168 SE england is still in an Easterly flow where as the 06z had the Easterly sunk into Nw france

- The GFS has difficulty dropping energy South through the block - its tried tovat about 144 on the 12z however lifts it out - where as ECM takes it through as as a slider & the UKMO 144 is starting that same process-

S

Isn't it going to still be too far East though even with expected corrections?

Edited November 2, 2016 by feb1991blizzard