Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Gael_Force]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks like an average of about -2 to me!! Am I looking at the wrong thing?

Comparing apples and pears. Knocker will be looking at ECM graph on the WxBell site and you are posting the GEFS ones from NOAA.

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Oh well, looks like 1 is wrong then or somewhere in the middle!! 

Not at all I'm not suggesting you are wrong, We are looking at two different graphs albeit showing the same index. The ecm does appear to have broken ranks,not for the first time. Not to forget these are forecasts as well and subject to the variations the other forecasts are currently experiencing.

Edited November 1, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Well the 18z wasn't dull, there is no mild for the next 10 days and then a mix of cold and mild.

[Eskimo]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well the 18z wasn't dull, there is no mild for the next 10 days and then a mix of cold and mild.

I think I know what you mean  

EDIT: Read it wrong 

Edited November 1, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I think I know what you mean 

It's good that the mild on the Gfs 18z is out in FI and its mostly chilly before then but seeing mild in low res is nothing to be concerned about as its still only autumn and the gfs is famous for cranking up the atlantic and trying to go into default mode..time will tell.

Edited November 1, 2016 by Frosty.

[Barry12]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's good that the mild on the Gfs 18z is out in FI and its mostly chilly before then but seeing mild in low res is nothing to be concerned about as its still only autumn.

Yes Frosty its staying cold throughout the reliable according to the GFS 18Z, just got to be patient and wait for the real cold that will come later.

patience grasshoppers...

[Mucka]

Aha! Spotted a slider in the ensembles. I like it when an ensemble illustrates something I have talked up as a possibility

 

Unfortunately it is an outlier (for now)

Be nice if it became a trend though eh?

 

Edit

9, 13 and 20 give a little support if not quite so dramatic. 

Edited November 1, 2016 by Mucka

[karlos1983]

I think I need to take a couple of days leave from model watching. Or it could be a long winter. Now seems the perfect time, about to enter our first real cool down, new pattern needs to evolve.

see you all tomorrow then 

 

[Mucka]

Beginning to look like GFS was hugely over progressive yesterday as suspected.

Another step toward pushing heights into Scandi and increasing the prospects of blocking and a slider scenario even though it doesn't quite get there this run. 

 

UKMO not dissimilar at 144 only marginally more amplified.

Will ECM produce a slider and Easterly in FI?

Probably over optimistic at this stage but the output is heading in the right direction again if you want to maintain the deep cold over the continent and some blocking.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Mucka

[shaky]

28 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Beginning to look like GFS was hugely over progressive yesterday as suspected.

Another step toward pushing heights into Scandi and increasing the prospects of blocking and a slider scenario even though it doesn't quite get there this run. 

 

UKMO not dissimilar at 144 only marginally more amplified.

Will ECM produce a slider and Easterly in FI?

Probably over optimistic at this stage but the output is heading in the right direction again if you want to maintain the deep cold over the continent and some blocking.

Good start to the day then mucka!!lets see what ecm produces!!just looked out the window and theres a thick frost out there :)!!

[knocker]

Today and the next few days

Now the cold front has cleared it is much cooler than it has been of late with frosts abounding this morning and tomorrow. Sunny and mainly dry in most areas but the coastal areas of Scotland and eastern England being the exception a fairly breezy down the east coast. Tomorrow sees the beginning of the change with fronts encroaching NW Scotland in the early hours which then travel SE bringing rain and then showers to most. By 06z Friday the expected low is situated over Stowaway and this also travels SE bringing rain with it which then clears by the weekend leaving the UK in a cold unstable northerly airstream with showers, some heavy, and quite windy in places.

The GFS this morning

The above doesn't quite give the true picture for Sunday because the complex upper trough orientated from the SW - NE then east into eastern Europe does a few convulsions, deconstructs and reforms with another low centre in the North Sea by 12z on Sunday bringing rain and strong winds to the east coast and feeling decidedly cool.

From here the surface low tracks south west as it swings around the general area of low pressure and is situated in SW France by 12z Tuesday leaving the UK in a light easterly.

So what next? The upper trough moves away SE, brief ridging NE over the UK, which is quickly broken down by the energy rushing out of the Canadian vortex leaving this position on Thursday which is not a total surprise as something of this nature was indicated by last night's anomalies. However the detail of all of this certainly not a done deal as there is too much volatility regarding the Atlantic high pressure and the energy emanating from two sources to the west so we continue to be somewhat at the mercy of the interactions of the warm and cold air.

Off to see Sidney this morning and he is expecting good news

 

Edited November 2, 2016 by knocker

[Ali1977]

ECM does follow suit, if not a little better than the GFS , another step in the right direction like this and things could get interesting. 

This then leads to a Scandy high and the UK still in a cold E/NE feed.  

Edited November 2, 2016 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

HERE WE GO!!!!!

 

[Tom Jarvis]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM does follow suit, if not a little better than the GFS , another step in the right direction like this and things could get interesting. 

This then leads to a Scandy high and the UK still in a cold E/NE feed.  

Also looks like we finally get energy going under the block as well going to be good the next few frames 

[northwestsnow]

Big improvement ECM!!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Scandy high!!

[feb1991blizzard]

-8c in a loaded gun over scandi with -12 not far behind, the trigger is the shortwave about to be ejected south east from the atlantic.

[Man With Beard]

Did we just find the mother lode?

Atlantic embargo!

[Ali1977]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Did we just find the mother lode?

Atlantic embargo!

We aren't talking the realms of FI here so this could actually happen.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

We aren't talking the realms of FI here so this could actually happen.

We need to garnish some support from other models within next few runs.

[northwestsnow]

Well this is fascinating model watching-

Atlantic hits a brick wall in the shape of a scandy high- looks to be disrupting at 168 with plenty of energy going under ..

And looks outside to the first frost of the season, lovely !

Edited November 2, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We need to garnish some support from other models within next few runs.

Yep, no real support for the ECMs Scandy high in other suites, so best not get carrried away. 

[knocker]

Well lyrical's are certainly being waxed this morning by the troops. "mother lodes"; "shortwave trigger lows", (an old favourite) but where will it all end I ask myself. I came over quite faint as I read.

The ecm finally achieved, at T168, what it has attempted previously and driven the energy through the ridging Atlantic HP to form a mid Atlantic trough as the high pressure is shunted of to the NE.  This briefly opens a conduit further south for the troughs to shoot through and track east over the UK before ridging reestablishes itself and by the end of the run the ridge has edged east to just west of the UK, stretching NE to the HP which is now well to the east of Scandinavia and the trough is orientated Scandinavia to the western Med.

But there is huge amount of energy poised over Greenland and the western Atlantic so as I mentioned previously, where will it all end?

Edited November 2, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

I think people are foaming at the mouth a bit early too knocker....there's a whole heap of energy sat out there that can't just vanish into thin air! No Atlantic steam-train coming into effect, but no rollicking easterly either.

[winterof79]

Whatever energy is generated?I am erring on that ending up on the Eastern side of the pole or fragmented.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=240

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=384

No clear vortex formation on show.

ECM has no sign of a marauding Vortex either

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

Edited November 2, 2016 by winterof79

[Man With Beard]

33 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, no real support for the ECMs Scandy high in other suites, so best not get carrried away. 

This is classic ECM territory though. Almost always the first to see a breakthrough of the trough to split west / east heights.

If T168 did materialise, you'd have to raise serious questions about when the Atlantic would eventually get in.