Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[jvenge]

GFS ensembles are in broad agreement out to T192 or so, which has been rare these past few weeks. Of course, doesn't mean they are right!

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, jvenge said:

GFS ensembles are in broad agreement out to T192 or so, which has been rare these past few weeks. Of course, doesn't mean they are right!

I have seen GEFS flip at much closer range than that, its amazing how the odd shortwave can destroy everything in one foul swoop.

Anyway, im enjoying the early season model output,fascinating stuff for sure..

[bluearmy]

All this mid autumn cold chasing will invariably lead to even worse symptoms come December onwards (assuming we don't get a November freeze! )

any coldie dismissing the ecm op 00z as disappointing needs to have a word with themselves ! 

'Atlantic trough disrupts west of the UK and ejects system to our south creating a Euro low'.  Sounds dreadful!! I would far rather see that evolution on the fi models in mid winter than a greeny ridge. 

 

[Hocus Pocus]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

All this mid autumn cold chasing will invariably lead to even worse symptoms come December onwards (assuming we don't get a November freeze! )

any coldie dismissing the ecm op 00z as disappointing needs to have a word with themselves ! 

'Atlantic trough disrupts west of the UK and ejects system to our south creating a Euro low'.  Sounds dreadful!! I would far rather see that evolution on the fi models in mid winter than a greeny ridge. 

 

Indeed, it's not about the here and now or early November but the bigger overall picture. The NH profile is a sight to behold and as long as that stays very much in situ then our chances for the months ahead  remain higher than normal, for a cold  pattern to develop that is.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens and Op show quite a big difference at t144 the Op has LP to our SW whilst the ens has high pressure

Edited October 26, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

In response to Ian's post on the last time the Northern Hemispheric conditions were so benign.I did have a peek at Nov 1977.

 

I am sure the weather got "somewhat" interesting later in that mid winter even after the vortex eventually formed.

Ehm, am I missing something but that chart is dated 30th September 2016. The chart for this day in 1977 is quite different...

And 1 month later, so end of Nov,,,

And Boxing Day 1977...

Difficult to get a full feel from snapshots but doesn't look too much like what we currently have to me.

[Ali1977]

Ravelin, I did wonder the same about the dates.  I had a quick look and 2010 seemed to have a crazy NH late Oct and Nov - a repeat of that early winter period would do nicely!!

[Man With Beard]

A little further out, quite a number of GEFS members showing a trough centred to our east at T240, and heights favourable in the Atlantic to promote a short N or NEly - around 50%.

The macro details remain favourable for winds from the north, now we just need the right evolution for the UK - the persistence in troughing to the SW could yet see the thermometer bashed in an upwards direction - indeed, this very pattern on the UKMO at T120 suggests another balmy end to the month.

[Day 10]

The big 3 at 120, where's all the usual wind and rain???

Looks like a very pleasant weekend coming up, is this the last warm hurrah before we plunge into an early winter. Lets hope the 1000-1 GFS outsider comes steaming down the rail as we approach mid November!!!

[SMU]

10 hours ago, fergieweather said:

No, not much to add other than I'm trying to recall the last time we saw output (irrespective of ultimate veracity) appear like this in early Nov. I'm sure someone keen on archive-fishing can tell us. Either way, as you rightly note the paucity of unambiguously zonal signals into medium range lately is all the more noteworthy, given typical model tendency to ultimately lean or revert towards climatology (ie a more energetic W'ly). In all honesty, it's all very extraordinary stuff (as per Lorenzo post), but we were anticipating an extended period of 'curiosities' to characterise NWP watching over coming days (weeks??).

 

To answer your the November query, its very easy.

NO !

November for the last 16 years has been a mostly positive index month with the odd bout of negativity.

2009 had a low AO reading which started to feed into the winter - circa -3, however never this much sustained 'negative output'

October is on the cusp of breaking the -AO record & November will be starting around -3 values.

There arent really any comparable years unless you head back into the 60s .... 

S

( Nov 62 was in the top 5 date records of negativity )

 

Edited October 26, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Gael_Force]

8 hours ago, SylvainTV said:

Hello, sorry can't do that, I have no access to parallel ECMWF data at all . It seems only customers have access to it.  I think he forgot to put a restriction on this page, ECMWF parallel data is usually even more restricted than operationnal data so it shouldn't be accessible freely, ( and the Op is actually available there too ... ). Maybe it's just a sample

That's what I was thinking. A little teaser for more customers and he might just have succeeded

I've refused to pay for access before but that is a very attractive model package even if the price has got a bit steeper.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Gael_Force

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

That's what I was thinking. A little teaser for more customers and he might just have succeeded

I've refused to pay for access before but that is a very attractive model package even if the price has got a bit steeper.

Net weather whip round ?

[jvenge]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Net weather whip round ?

Knockers has weather bell access, I believe.

 

[Ravelin]

35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

There arent really any comparable years unless you head back into the 60s .... 

S

( Nov 62 was in the top 5 date records of negativity )

*cough* Boss is out of the office *cough* and I was bored *cough*

So here's Nov '62 in animated form....

 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

*cough* Boss is out of the office *cough* and I was bored *cough*

So here's Nov '62 in animated form....

 

And still we are likely to have a weaker PV than that on Nov 1st this year, this is a record breaker for PV weakness, AO and intuitively would mean a record breaker for OPI negativity as well. can we smash the winter records for continuous cold is the question?

[Ali1977]

This GFS looks like a better run, the low over the West of Greenland is a different shape and looks like staying to the West of Greenland alowing a better chance of a block to form.  Also, the 3 lows at 192 on the 00z are now showing 1 big low so a less complicated picture.  That's my untrained eye on things so far this run.

In fact, this could be a great run from day 9, if we get a NE wind going there is much more cold weather close by in Scandy to tap into - relative to the time of year of course.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Ali1977

[legritter]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This GFS looks like a better run, the low over the West of Greenland is a different shape and looks like staying to the West of Greenland alowing a better chance of a block to form.  Also, the 3 lows at 192 on the 00z are now showing 1 big low so a less complicated picture.  That's my untrained eye on things so far this run.

In fact, this could be a great run from day 9, if we get a NE wind going there is much more cold weather close by in Scandy to tap into - relative to the time of year of course.

Gfs certainly a good run for coldies , Ecm still hard to pin down after 144hrs  but will wait for Met of update to think what their thinking is ,of course we dont get to see their later charts but we can read between the lines ,and there is some good signs available in other data , its a hard life for us but Meteorology is so enjoyable ,catch you all up later ,cheers .

[weirpig]

Well  eventful run from the Gfs op   we got nice calm warm conditions  northerlies  north westerlies  north easterlies  and then a windstorm at the end of the run.  Blocking however still prevalent till the end of the run, With some quite cool uppers  again  through the early part of the month.    still have no idea   eyes to the ensembles.

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, legritter said:

Gfs certainly a good run for coldies , Ecm still hard to pin down after 144hrs  but will wait for Met of update to think what their thinking is ,of course we dont get to see their later charts but we can read between the lineForums s ,and there is some good signs available in other data , its a hard life for us but Meteorology is so enjoyable ,catch you all up later ,cheers .

Well don't read between too many lines as the ext EPS is pretty benign with ridging in the Atlantic and a positively tilted tough to the E/SE so the upper flow still in the NW quadrant with temps perhaps a little below average in general.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Couldn't be more different this year and especially now compared to recent years regards to weather..

Firstly how dry and continued dry weather the models are showing.. By now at least somewhere in the UK has had a "autumn storm" already or a few. 

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

47 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well don't read between too many lines as the ext EPS is pretty benign with ridging in the Atlantic and a positively tilted tough to the E/SE so the upper flow still in the NW quadrant with temps perhaps a little below average in general.

The mean upper flow is in the nw quadrant so with low sceuro anomaly showing I would expect mean scandi trough/Atlantic ridge which ebbs and flows. Resulting in most systems heading into nw Europe mainly travelling to our south. Tough without the clusters or spreads 

i guess the ecm run from this morning could be a decent representation of what could occur within that mean/anomaly 

 

 

[knocker]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The mean upper flow is in the nw quadrant so with low sceuro anomaly showing I would expect mean scandi trough/Atlantic ridge which ebbs and flows. Resulting in most systems heading into nw Europe mainly travelling to our south. Tough without the clusters or spreads 

i guess the ecm run from this morning could be a decent representation of what could occur within that mean/anomaly 

 

 

That of course is a possibility but if the ridge edges east then this would probably be negated and you would have an analysis something like the 850mb streamline chart at T300.

Edited October 26, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean looks very quiet and settled across most of the uk until at least later next week with variable cloud but fog looks like being an increasing problem night and morning although it should clear to give pleasantly warm, bright or sunny afternoons..very respectable weather for late Oct / early Nov.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Frosty.

[weirpig]

Some  nice charts on the ensembles  here is my favourite just to  wet the appetite   out in Fl  but nice to look at.

[swilliam]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

 

To answer your the November query, its very easy.

NO !

November for the last 16 years has been a mostly positive index month with the odd bout of negativity.

2009 had a low AO reading which started to feed into the winter - circa -3, however never this much sustained 'negative output'

October is on the cusp of breaking the -AO record & November will be starting around -3 values.

There arent really any comparable years unless you head back into the 60s .... 

S

( Nov 62 was in the top 5 date records of negativity )

 

The last time I can remember significant cold at the beginning of November was 1980 when there was snow in the channel islands and -8 uppers in SE England

 

 

Edited October 26, 2016 by swilliam