Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Man With Beard]

Frosty, good to have you back!

Latest GFS 18Z even hotter than the 12Z for more people. Monday now approaching 30C and Tuesday hotter still ... when was the latest ever 90F in a year?

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Frosty, good to have you back!

Latest GFS 18Z even hotter than the 12Z for more people. Monday now approaching 30C and Tuesday hotter still ... when was the latest ever 90F in a year?

Thanks MWB, it's good to be back and even better to see yet more summery weather looking increasingly likely by early next week.

[Singularity]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/18_144_uk2mtmp.png?cb=143

Steady on there GFS... Stagnating hot air in mid-September leading to projected values of 31*C which historical cases suggest could mean a localised 33*C.

At this point, if feeling skeptical of the plausibility of this figure, it's a good idea to think back to the final days of Sep 2011, which had lower 850s yet pushed 30*C in the SE, this being achieved with the daylight hours being some 45 minutes less than at mid-month.

Sea surface temps reach their peak around this time of year and I expect that's what allows for such high temperatures from continental heat plumes despite having some 2.5 hours less daylight than in the middle of summer (more than that up north).

So when looking at these model charts, it seems reasonable to expect several degrees into the 30s as a UK max IF the uppers reach the high teens to low 20s while there is plenty of sunshine making it to the surface at one or more of the usual hotspots.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z looks stunning during the first half of next week with increasingly hot / humid sunny weather with temps close to 90F in the south and then a growing chance of isolated severe thunderstorms..not september like conditions at all..more like July!

[Summer Sun]

GFS 18z ramping up the heat for next week some stunning charts for the time of year

Welcome back Frosty too

Edited September 8, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS 18z ramping up the heat for next week some stunning charts for the time of year

Welcome back Frosty too

Cheers Gavin, yes the charts look amazing for the second week of september, let's hope another summery plume is on the way!

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi guys

not posted in a while due to being busy with erecting another fence(the third time in so many years),gone for the full monty this time of concrete posts etc cos the wind we have here is quiet blowy being exposed with the fields out back

sos to derail the thread a tad,but this summer has been better than recent years here and there has been quiet a bit of nice weather around and looks set to continue next week

i have been monitoring the 500mb outlook for the last week or so showing an upper trough west of the BI(6-10 and 8-14) and has been consistent within that time drawing up some continental air from the south,bang on the money i would say IF next weeks plume came off and still showing it on the 6-10 dayer now

and a pos re-load from the SW on the 8-14 dayer

a quick look at the latest ensembles and BANG,and BANK with maybe a +30c in offer midweek,not too shabby for September is it

enjoy the weather what ever you are doing and it is nice to here from you again Karl

 

Edited September 8, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[knocker]

Today

Mainly dry in England and Wales (perhaps some drizzle) but rain and becoming increasingly windy by lunchtime in N. Ireland and western Scotland. Temps no great shakes.

The GFS this morning. The fronts associated with today's rapidly moving low (some very nasty sea conditions in some areas reaching violent storm 11) will move slowly SE across the country tomorrow. Then brief ridging before the next system arrives with the upper trough stretching south to Portugal. This facilitates a couple of days of WAA, mainly into the SE quadrant of the UK and as the trough deconstructs a small unstable low pressure area that drifts north.

The deconstruction of the trough is actually quite good news, if it validates of course. It creates a cut off low but far enough south to allow ingress from the Azores HP which has the potential to bring two or three days of pleasant weather to all of the UK The HP remaining influential until the !9th at least but I think that will keep.

[mb018538]

First signs of some disagreement this morning....

GFS keeps hold of the heat, but the UKMO isn't having any of it today, instead sweeping the trough through and pushing the heat away. More runs needed as usual.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I wouldn't even say GFS holds on to the heat? Tuesday warmest for me 19°, not what I'd call hot

[cheeky_monkey]

31c in my location is certainly hot for Mid September

[markyo]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

First signs of some disagreement this morning....

GFS keeps hold of the heat, but the UKMO isn't having any of it today, instead sweeping the trough through and pushing the heat away. More runs needed as usual.

Fingers crossed UKMO is on to something,time will tell.

[mhielte]

32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I wouldn't even say GFS holds on to the heat? Tuesday warmest for me 19°, not what I'd call hot

It's worth noting the 00z operational was one of the cooler options for western areas in particular.

[mb018538]

ECM is also holding on to the heat - maybe UKMO is an outlier?

[Summer Sun]

The south and SE hold onto the very warm temps till Thursday

Even temps into the high teens is very pleasant for the time of year assuming it was dry

Beeb for london

Monday sunny 26c

Tuesday sunny 28c

Wednesday sunny 27c

Thursday sunny spells 24c 

[knocker]

I've been wondering for some time whether this thread is an arm of the SE tourist board.

Edited September 9, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Well ECM looks best for heat this morning- ukmo is not interested in any warmth/settled weather next week and introduces a trough at 120 and 144 .

GFS probably somewhere in the middle..

[Summer Sun]

This is the thoughts from Fergie could well be UKMO is too quick shifting the high this morning

 

 

[cheese]

Well needless to say I'm backing ECM this morning - delivers very warm or hot conditions widely on Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS is hot only for the SE, and UKMO isn't hot for anywhere.

Go ECM!!

Edited September 9, 2016 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

GEM keeps the warmth/heat till Thursday

[Weather Boy]

53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The south and SE hold onto the very warm temps till Thursday

Even temps into the high teens is very pleasant for the time of year assuming it was dry

Beeb for london

Monday sunny 26c

Tuesday sunny 28c

Wednesday sunny 27c

Thursday sunny spells 24c 

That last chart is amazing.  27C in Sussex and 20C for my location (north of London).  Has that ever happened before?

[Man With Beard]

We've been here so many times this summer - the models are pretty poor when a small low gets cut off to the South West. Look at the latest three runs from GFS/ECM/UKMO for next Wednesday - no consistency, except perhaps slightly more progressive as time has gone on. Anything could happen really apart from snow:

    

    

    

[Summer Sun]

Very good agreement on the GFS 00z ens for Tuesday to Thursday it's not really till the weekend temps in the south would be in the lower 20's

[Scorcher]

The BBC are showing higher temperatures and less cloud for Tuesday in NW England than they did during the recent warm spell. As mentioned before, you don't need pressure to be as high with a flow off the continent- so even with the lows seemingly close to us, conditions on the ground could still be good (and very warm).

[knocker]

Looking at the EPS Weds marks the end of the SE hot spell but quite pleasant after that with most of England being in the anticyclonic circulation. Which still leaves the NW in the path of systems tracking NE

Edited September 9, 2016 by knocker