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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

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43 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Interesting to see signs of steadfast blocking to our NE so early in the season. There is a hypothesis that the anomalously low sea ice in Barents/Kara could help with blocking over Scandi, but that might not be relevant until late autumn and early winter.

Whatever the case, a standoff could keep us on the warm side for some time to come. The 12z GFS has us strolling through a great number of warm afternoons until some two weeks from now.

Hmmm, I'm not keen on big NE blocks this time of the year, they always seem to go pop on December 1st...

Next Thursday could be hot on many charts if the Atlantic front doesn't progress too fast - good SSE draw, 16C uppers. Mind you with a mini-trough up against a high to the east, the final solution may not have been reached yet.

Beyond that, chances are we'll do it all over again in week 2! 

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3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well the ECM looks decent for most of next week.

ECM1-96.GIF?02-0   ECM1-120.GIF?02-0   ECM1-144.GIF?02-0

Throughout these three days the 850s are predicted to be around 12-16C for most areas.

ECM0-96.GIF?02-0   ECM0-120.GIF?02-0   ECM0-144.GIF?02-0

30C would not be out of the question as we see a stronger south easterly flow which allows the warmest air across the continent to drift into the southern half of the UK, mid to high twenties for Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS seems to mix the 850s out a lot more for Tuesday and Wednesday but agrees on that push of warmth on Thursday, It does looks like fronts will try to push east from Friday onwards but there is real doubt in how far east they can get and how much rain would be on them.It does looks like fronts will try to push east from Friday onwards but there is real doubt in how far east they can get and how much rain would be on them.

5

Maybe not that far east with high pressure always close by

Recm1921.gifRecm2161.gifRecm2401.gif

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Right out to D10 I can't see much in the way of rain away from the NW once tomorrow's blip clears away with high pressure either over the UK or always close enough to keep lows at bay

EDM101-72.GIF?02-0EDM101-120.GIF?02-0EDM101-168.GIF?02-0EDM101-216.GIF?02-0EDM101-240.GIF?02-0

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' tomorrow's blip ' have constantly fallen on a Saturday . In S. Yorks / Derbyshire cricket league we will have had 8 games rained off or abandoned out of 18 this season . 

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Apart from the ecm which is slightly more progressive with the trough the anomalies are all singing the same song. It's all a bit knife edgy rather depending on the precise position of the trough and where the surface high parks itself but the outlook is looking pretty good with HP having the greater influence. Regarding the EPS as we go into the post ten day period it remains favourable with the trough weakening quite rapidly allowing the Azores HP to nudge north and maybe connect to the high pressure to the east. It has to be said though the NOAA 8-14 doesn't appear to go along with this interpretation.

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

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Today

Rain spreading from the west to all areas in England and Wales with showers in Scotland.

ens_max1hrprecip_21.pngens_max1hrsfcgust_24.pngens_max2mtemp_22.png

ens_mean1hrprecip_43.png

The GFS this morning.

Generally speaking the high pressure to the east remains in charge, except for Scotland, until Sunday and then mayhem ensues which is best left for another day.

So a couple of things of note. The upper low to the SW is still there on Thursday with a shallow surface feature to the south but not much comes of that. Then later in the week the trough is realigned to the west, running a fair way south, whilst in conjunction the HP to the east is beginning to move north. This opens the way for developments under the high pressure which as previously mentioned is best left at the moment.

gfs_z500a_natl_21.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.png

gfs_z500a_natl_31.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_33.png

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Talk about repetitive synoptics!...week after week low pressure setting up well to the NNW of us leaving us in the 'bubble' of heat which continues over Europe, when was the last time the whole country had a good dolope of Pm air?

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The EPS has the start of the breakdown of next week's pattern around next weekend with the movement east of the Omega Block and gradual dissolution of same with the quite rapid weakening of the Atlantic trough. This will leave a not unfamiliar scenario of a trough to the NW and HP to the SW, ergo the upper flow veering westerly, and the usual N/S split with the day to day weather depending on the phasing of the cooler and warmer air. The dry spell in the south/south east looks like continuing a while yet.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_natl_11.pngecm_eps_z500a_natl_11.png

Edited by knocker
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54 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Just glancing through the GFS 06z run and the heat to our South over Iberia and N.Africa has really built up and by Tuesday has extended north over many parts of the UK.Max temperatures into the 20's C quite widely with high 20's down south on many days- and i wouldn't be surprised to see Scotland and areas further north seeing in excess of 21c on some days. 

heat 2.pngheat.png

The stalling Atlantic trough and the developing blocking high to the east wafting the warmth north for much of next week by the look of it.

This is the pressure anomaly for the end of the week-3 day mean

anom.png

Still looking very promising towards next week end with that high restricting any rain bearing systems from the Atlantic,maybe just skirting the far north west at times,this looking more likely as we enter week 2 of the outputs.

 

9 times out of 10 you'll get something like this in September seems to have happened in some form in recent years never seems to happen in summer any more where if it happened you'll get a real roasting

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Hints of the weather starting to turn more unsettled the closer we get to mid-month from GFS and GEM

gfs-0-216.png?12gfs-0-240.png?12

gem-0-216.png?12gem-0-240.png?12

The GFS ens would probably give more of an NW-SE split initially 

gens-21-1-216.png?12gens-21-1-240.pnggens-21-1-264.png?12gens-21-1-312.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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ECM also shows low pressure starting to develop later next week and into the following week

Recm1681.gifRecm1921.gifRecm2161.gifRecm2401.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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The ecm is looking at a breakdown of the stable warm weather on Saturday. Friday has a cut off upper low to the SW facilitating a southerly flow over the UK with temps maybe touching 30C in the east. But this pattern rapidly gives way to a trough rushing from the west by Saturday with fronts tracking NE across the country. Quickly followed by the next front on Monday which is associated with a new depression which initially tracks NE but swings north to combine with the old depression south of Iceland.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_7.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.png

Edited by knocker

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Tonight's ECM ens anomaly shows high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west whilst all parts would be at risk of some rain in the extended range the SE could see the longest drier spells

EDM101-144.GIF?03-0EDM101-168.GIF?03-0EDM101-192.GIF?03-0EDM101-216.GIF?03-0EDM101-240.GIF?03-0

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The GFS 18z has the heat coming back WC 12th for a short time

On phone so no idea if the charts will show 

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

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Today

Rain quickly clearing from the NE leaving a mainly dry day for England and Wales with some showers around. Heavy showers in Scotland, possibly thundery. Rain approaching from the west later.

ens_max1hrprecip_24.pngens_mean1hrprecip_43.pngens_max2mtemp_22.png

The GFS this morning for the next ten days

Midweek set for three days of settled and warm days but by Thursday, with the upper low just to the west of Ireland, an area of low pressure is effecting N. Ireland and Scotland. This soon moves away but a more organised frontal system pushes east, then SE, over the weekend although as usual the SE remains fine until Sunday. Thereafter,, after very brief ridging, a bit of a nightmare scenario with a new low tracking NE and bringing rain and gales,

gfs_z500a_natl_20.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_20.png

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_29.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_37.png

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Could an even stronger area of high pressure from the Azores start moving back in day 8+ Monday? Here's the ECM 0z for today:

image.png

image.png

image.png

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Needless to say the ecm has a completely different take on the evolution next week. It does agree on fronts traversing the country next weekend bot no Armageddon to follow.. More a N/S split which I suspect is the correct road  to travel. But given the complete lack of agreement a watching brief is the best option for  now IMO.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.png

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Longer term GFS and GEM go for a deep low at D9 and 10

Rgem2161.gifRgem2401.gif

Rtavn2161.gifRtavn2401.gif

At the same time, ECM goes for high pressure to build more so across the south

Recm2161.gifRecm2401.gif

As ever more runs needed

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Trying to decipher what may happen in the 6-10 day outlook is not easy.

Below are the links for the latest 500mb anomaly charts.

Two go with the trough being the main influence and one part way to that but with +ve heights still quite close to the E/NE of the UK. There is still the added complication of ex hurricanes/Tropical storms likely to get into the North Atlantic to complicate matters.

To me I think after the return of a degree of heat during this next week then some kind of trough influence on the weather seems the most likely for the 6-10 day period with systems, whatever their origin, moving close by the UK, more especially as is the usual case, to the NW of the country. This perhaps suggests the oft seen NW-SE split in terms of how changeable or not ones weather is?

the NOAA link for Tropical storms

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

500mb chart links

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited by johnholmes
spelling/grammar as usual!
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GFS 06z shows high pressure starting to rebuild as we move into WC 12th the best of the temperatures would be in the south where the mid 20's can't be ruled out for a time the far north and northern ireland see's majority of the rain

h500slp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukprec.png

h500slp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukprec.png

h500slp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukprec.png

The 2nd half of the week see's pressure starting to fall but remaining warm and dry for the south and SE initially

h500slp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukprec.png

h500slp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukprec.png

 

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As a total novice in this area of Meteorology Tamara I quote your last but one paragraph

Tropical convection forecasts are highly fickle however. For what it is worth though, based on MJO trends through the summer - which have shown enough eagerness for activity against a relatively benign ENSO state, there are decent enough grounds for anticipating a consensus for another round of convection later in September. So plenty to look out for in the coming days ahead.

Do you believe that doing a hindcast would show that the MJO has given good or bad advice over the summer months. I understood that MJO signals over the summer were less reliable than during the winter months?

A total novice question=At what stage does does GWO and AAM have significant effects on the MJO signal. I am talking in terms of how far ahead?

thanks Tamara, pm on its way

 

Edited by johnholmes
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