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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

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Yep, only v early Nov so chin up. I'm sure we'll start seeing some positive changes towards mid nov in the next few runs as the Azores high decides where it's heading 

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its a bit of a let down, but it is only one set of runs... not sure what year it was think maybe 2012/13 we had the GFS dragging its feet when ECM UKMO etc were bullish with output only for the GFS to come towards the others for the others to then drop the output for 24 hrs before all of them reverting back to the previous ideas... either way we have a cold spell coming up for around 5 days... so thats 5 more than most saw last winter and its only Autumn... as others have said the NH is completely different to the last few winters at this stage... still all to play for... think it will another 24 hrs before this is resolved....

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is it unexpected?

i thought this was well advertised driving the American ridge and downstream trough - question for Europe is whether we see a mid Atlantic ridge and if so, does it drive the jet into the e euro trough via amplification or coldish zonality ??

Well I apologize in that case as I must have missed it. I did realize quite a nasty low was forecast but not in the realms of 927mb. And surely the American ridge has been around quite a while and is not just driven by this depression materializing although it may reinforce it. And also yes it does pose the question for Europe that you point out.

Edited by knocker
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I wonder if this Tropical feature in the Atlantic will help or hinder us? Is this what has ultimately brought the end of the attempted trough disruption favoring our shores and drawing in the Easterlies?

gfsnh-0-12.png

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GFS hasn't blown up the low between Greenland and Iceland quite as much on this run, so consequently everything is a little further West at Day 7/8..

0Z  gfsnh-0-186.png  6Z gfsnh-0-180.png?6

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06z gfs disrupts the low ever so slightly further west at t120 hours compared to 00z!!dont think its done yet!!12z may prove a bit of a surprise!

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Then this, late Nov would be a better time to ha e a cold spell when a few more factors are on our side - colder NH / seas etc....this may not happen of course but looking promising for now.

IMG_3424.PNG

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6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Just seen this???

IMG_0065.PNG

As been pointed by Ian himself the chance of westerlies persisting for a large period seem unlikely. With the end of nov looking increasingly blocked as staying so for the start of winter. With low heights residing from greenland. 

Nothing to worry about as its the 4th of November and things for the start of winter haven't looked this good in years.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Then this, late Nov would be a better time to ha e a cold spell when a few more factors are on our side - colder NH / seas etc....this may not happen of course but looking promising for now.

Being really pedantic, but Ian said "later Nov", which could well be before "late Nov". I'm sure he'll be along at some point today and might clarify current thinking.

Edited by Ravelin

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Bit of a setback this morning, I'm sure the outlook will change in our favour, maybe even later today. 3steps forward 2steps back

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Yes all looking very good later November with a signal for more blocked conditions and colder start to winter very interesting times ahead much much better to this time last year.:D

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Increasing support now from ENS for a Wly/NWly flow to take over from mid-week next week through to mid-November, as 500mb Polar Vortex over northern Canada shifts east across Greenland combined with a strong Azores high which ridges NE toward UK at times. More unsetttled towards the north of the UK in such a pattern. Gone is any -NAO signal for now.

BUT, with the MJO moving through phases 7 and 8 around mid month, maybe even 1 at a push and longer range EC, GEFS and others (GloSea5) hinting that we may see blocking and colder/drier weather return towards the end of the month.

So, no point worrying about the pattern change to more mobile next week just yet, could be a temporary thing as the PV still shows no signs of becoming strong or lingering over Greenland.

Edited by Nick F
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16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Then this, late Nov would be a better time to ha e a cold spell when a few more factors are on our side - colder NH / seas etc....this may not happen of course but looking promising for now.

IMG_3424.PNG

Rinse and repeat of winter for me. This will keep the average or just below about right until Xmas, but nothing seriously cold just usual winter fare (on the drier side though).

Edited by vase1234
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FI but that's a great looking chart going forward - going to be great model watching over the next few weeks I feel

IMG_3425.PNG

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Ok if you can all hold off posting for a couple of minutes i have a new thread ready to open.Will be locking this:)

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

FI but that's a great looking chart going forward - going to be great model watching over the next few weeks I feel

IMG_3425.PNG

:rofl: HAHA .After yesterdays episode please dont.If nothing elae yesterday showed that anything 140 plus is fraught with danger ete.yesterdays white xmas and 47 comments showed that..Lets see how the pv reacts to any strat pressure and take it from there.I think autumn is in the air and thats what we have ,chilly breezy weather:D

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11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

FI but that's a great looking chart going forward - going to be great model watching over the next few weeks I feel

IMG_3425.PNG

I'm not sure I have the energy levels to chase that Easterly :nonono:

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Ok guys this is now locked  new thread here

 

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