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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

GFS 18z very, very similar to the ECM at 72hrs now, small and subtle changes but perhaps important ones. Is the GFS finally about to correct to the ECM?

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

At 120hrs and there's more than a passing similarity between the ECM and GFS.  GFS is definitely on the move!

 

ECH1-120.gif

gfsnh-0-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL

A comparison of the GFS and ECM at day 6:

 

image.png

image.png

Better 18z so far.... Although not quite there, it seems like the GFS is slowly getting to the pattern the ECM is showing. Hope it continues into tomorrow!

Edited by Kieran
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Its a fail now but the point is that its still moved nearer to ECM, if it keeps moving in right direction then this time tomorrow it will be a pass and we will get a proper undercut, over to the 46 and the 0z op runs now.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a fail now but the point is that its still moved nearer to ECM, if it keeps moving in right direction then this time tomorrow it will be a pass and we will get a proper undercut, over to the 46 and the 0z op runs now.

If the ECM doesn't back towards what is now showing on the GFS that is...that could happen as much as the other way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a fail now but the point is that its still moved nearer to ECM, if it keeps moving in right direction then this time tomorrow it will be a pass and we will get a proper undercut, over to the 46 and the 0z op runs now.

Yep, not quite there yet so there's hope that the final resolution won't be the often used term 'halfway house'.  We want the ECM to stick to its guns on the 00z

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

If the ECM doesn't back towards what is now showing on the GFS that is...that could happen as much as the other way. 

The direction of travel is moving the right way currently, yes it could change but at the moment, every run has been a progressive improvement over the last 24 hours from all the big 3 that is.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

every run has been a progressive improvement over the last 24 hours from all the big 3 that is.

Indeed, progressively less progressive as far as the atlantic is concerned, fingers crossed for further upgrades to the longevity of cold on tomorrow's runs!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Just now, Frosty. said:

Indeed, progressively less progressive as far as the atlantic is concerned, fingers crossed for further upgrades to the longevity of cold on tomorrow's runs!:)

Spot on. GFS is slowly backtracking towards Euro's like MR Murr has been discussing. Good steps today. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
10 hours ago, tight isobar said:

GFS clearly seems as-per' over enthusiastic with mobility and block destruction. 

And has massive data misinterpretation with dealing in such scenarios. 

The Ecmwf' had a major wobble itself last season . However in such scenario as at current face value (moreso) 0hrs-168' is imo vastly superior to the former.

Think gfs will however show compliance in coming suites. 

I know where my money's at!

Yes "certainly" a step In the right directIon via 18z suite

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

h500slp.png00h500slp.png06zh500slp.png12zh500slp.png18z

GFS at +144

Heights over Scandinavia stronger on each run, a sign that the GFS is underestimating the blocking here perhaps?

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, with SSTs currently being what they are, and irrespective of whatever the 'BOOM!' runs might suggest, any snowfall next-week will be confined to high ground away from the coast...Bog standard November weather, if you ask me...:oops:

 
 

Can we hold you to that then, Pete? This is no bog-standard November upcoming. I have to be careful of putting the horse before the cart but I might well start stocking up with extra hay for it soon. Early wintry scenes about this coming weekend, a most festive scene for Christmas Bonfire Night. Some hail and sleet in them there showers for a few prone locations and briefly settling up at the highest elevations. Brrrr..........................

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Hmm, new EC week 4 (start of winter) is a zinger. Coherent -AO signature, even allowing for the differences between the 00z and 12z.

Whats this mean please Glacier Point? Sorry if im a bit slow tonight-. Great having you back by the way.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Hmm, new EC week 4 (start of winter) is a zinger. Coherent -AO signature, even allowing for the differences between the 00z and 12z.

I'm looking to see a correlation between the op and parallel 46 dayers. Not had that too often thus far.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Regardless of if this run verifies it's amazing to see the warmth being sent way up into Canada. Amazing 

temp2.png

Agreed, Canada is far above average for the time of year and there is little sign of this changing based on the models.

temp4.png

Whereas the majority of Europe  is below average. All we need is a small shift west...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
19 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Regardless of if this run verifies it's amazing to see the warmth being sent way up into Canada. Amazing 

A polar (pardon the pun) opposite to what we've seen in recent winters too. WIth us, consistently mild, wet and stormy and Northern US and Canada under the snow-fields. Must surely be a relevant part of the overall hemispheric picture when looking for something akin to some of the famous winters of the past. It's simply a case of being patient and watching where the coldest of the cold dice land, Northwestern Europe (i.e. our part of the world) or elsewhere? Further East or over in the good ole US for instance.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Can we hold you to that then, Pete? This is no bog-standard November upcoming. 

I'm sure it was a tongue in cheek comment, as for the latest models, there are encouraging signs that the upcoming cold will not be brushed aside next week as earlier runs suggested. Hope tomorrow brings more good news.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I'm sure it was a tongue in cheek comment, as for the latest models, there are encouraging signs that the upcoming cold will not be brushed aside next week as earlier runs suggested. Hope tomorrow brings more good news.

 

Time will tell. I'm still sticking to my guns as per my recent status update. Yes. the road ahead will have its ups and downs like any other winter (mind you, I keep forgetting we're still in bleeding November too), enjoy the ride!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, gottolovethisweather said:

Time will tell. I'm still sticking to my guns as per my recent status update. Yes. the road ahead will have its ups and downs like any other winter (mind you, I keep forgetting we're still in bleeding November too), enjoy the ride!

If the models keep trending colder, I will enjoy the ride.:D

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