Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[tight isobar]

Ecm...is rock solid on its evolution at present.....

Lets see where she ends!!??

[SMU]

Lol - Icing on the cake ?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Old skool November on the cards, and i love it !! (Doesn't mean snow, but it means cold foggy and frosty )..

PS If ecm has the right handle, and i'm not sure we will know until maybe the 00z runs tomorrow

you say doesn't mean snow but once (reasonably) cold air is in place and another slider / undercutter comes then something could fall from the sky and on the Eastern flank, guess what it could be!!!!

[Frosty.]

Cold all next week according to the Ecm 12z with widespread frosts and crisp days, even some wintry showers in the east..and its still autumn No mild!

Edited November 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

TBH, with SSTs currently being what they are, and irrespective of whatever the 'BOOM!' runs might suggest, any snowfall next-week will be confined to high ground away from the coast...Bog standard November weather, if you ask me...

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

you say doesn't mean snow but once (reasonably) cold air is in place and another slider / undercutter comes then something could fall from the sky and on the Eastern flank, guess what it could be!!!!

Lets get the correct evolution first and then think anout the white stuff, hope knocker didn't actually go and deliver sidney the 'good news' the other day when it looked like an Atlantic victory ....:D

[Ali1977]

Is this similar to the slack low Ian F was mentioning I wonder - looks cold with lots of potential moving forward.

[karlos1983]

That's one hell of an ending if longevity of holding out the Atlantic and increasing cold potential is what you're after. Take a bow ECM 

WAA nice into Greenland as well

 

Edited November 3, 2016 by karlos1983

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, with SSTs currently being what they are, and irrespective of whatever the 'BOOM!' runs might suggest, any snowfall next-week will be confined to high ground away from the coast...Bog standard November weather, if you ask me...

Sounds about right to me 

[Mucka]

21 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

It'll be fascinating to see if this ultimately goes the recent GloSea route (slack low established across UK into mid-month)...

Did you forget to finish your sentence there Fergie?

(slack low and Easterly flow established across UK into mid-month) 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lol - Icing on the cake ?

The thing to note about that chart is the PV, theres going to come a tipping point (a good way off just yet admittedly) when if the PV is still in that state and the stratosphere forecasts look favourable then we may have to evaluate our targets and think more about at least a 09-10 or 95-96 winter or even dare I say it 62-63.

[tight isobar]

Ends as good as it starts.

Yes its no major cold.

However on the face of things its as far from mild as anything. 

Plus the expansion of upper thermos (850hpa..have plenty of scope for change for our part in coming days.ie colder pooling making in roads in future outputs! 

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, with SSTs currently being what they are, and irrespective of whatever the 'BOOM!' runs might suggest, any snowfall next-week will be confined to high ground away from the coast...Bog standard November weather, if you ask me...

Pete. Typical November weather is wind and rain  blocking looks great for me at the moment it's all about frost and cold. The snow can wait 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, with SSTs currently being what they are, and irrespective of whatever the 'BOOM!' runs might suggest, any snowfall next-week will be confined to high ground away from the coast...Bog standard November weather, if you ask me...

Yes Pete it's looking more wintry than anything we saw last November and December for that matter..bog standard indeed

Edited November 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[lorenzo]

ECM fancying a trip down memory lane and tempting a stroll into 'That ECM' territory.

Enjoyed watching the 850 flow on that run and the Scandi solution cranking up notch 168> 192. That plus a look at 150hPa and the support there.

Given GFS and it's sluggish steps to toe the line, we are possibly due an outrageous pub run as it over corrects itself and leaves a certain Mr Murr at the controls.

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, with SSTs currently being what they are, and irrespective of whatever the 'BOOM!' runs might suggest, any snowfall next-week will be confined to high ground away from the coast...Bog standard November weather, if you ask me...

But the bigger picture, i.e. NH profile, most certainly not Bog standard November 

[Geordiesnow]

Certainly look like the cool/cold feeling weather could well last longer than first thought, the Atantic does make an impact but on this run, the projected height rises to the NE plays a part in this run.

Its ashame its only November and not further ahead into winter because for all the nice looking charts, as Ed says, snowfall does look limited(although I would not fully rule out any wintriness in any showers come Sunday night into Monday) although at least the weather will feel like Autumn. Monday night into Tuesday at the moment has the potential to be the coldest night of the season so far but if the Atlantic does edge in like on this ECM run, I do feel it will be more of the dull and cold type that we could see for the middle part of next week but of course its way too early to say without any full certainty.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Yes Pete it's looking more wintry than anything we saw last November and December for that matter..bog standard indeed

That, Frosty and weirpig, is coz I is older - much older - than you are!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, with SSTs currently being what they are, and irrespective of whatever the 'BOOM!' runs might suggest, any snowfall next-week will be confined to high ground away from the coast...Bog standard November weather, if you ask me...

Ed, that's why I don't mind if these charts fail! very selfish of me I know, but for my location it's too early for snow, kinda hoping GFS is right, I wanna see cold setups 4 weeks from now

[nick sussex]

Nothing like an early season model drama to get the punters in!

The ECM continues its trend to slide some energy se and keeps a stronger high over Scandi, the GFS less interested which is one of its biases with throwing too much energy ne rather than se. The UKMO is a middle ground solution. If you look upstream over in the ne Canada there is a difference between the ECM and GFS/UKMO with how they handle low pressure over Hudson Bay, you'll note the weaker feature on the latter two, the ECM is more developed and amplified this helps to shear some energy away from the deep low over southern Greenland at between T120 hrs and T144hrs as the low moves east.

The more amplified the pattern is over the east/ne USA the better chance of getting to the colder outcome so something to keep an eye on over the next few runs.

Edited November 3, 2016 by nick sussex

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

But the bigger picture, i.e. NH profile, most certainly not Bog standard November 

And if the NH profile keeps up, we certainly wont be looking at a bog standard December, more chance of 2010 if we enter it with the current NH charts.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And if the NH profile keeps up, we certainly wont be looking at a bog standard December, more chance of 2010 if we enter it with the current NH charts.

I understand GloSea5 is indicating increasingly blocked conditions later in Nov and wouldn't it be amazing if we had another 2010 Nov / Dec freeze!

Edited November 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I understand GloSea5 is indicating increasingly blocked conditions later in Nov and wouldn't it be amazing if we had another 2010 Nov freeze!

Theres an EC46 tonight, over to the usual suspects if they can be kind enough to do us the honours around 11pm tonight>

[Cloud 10]

The perils of day 10 charts perfectly illustrated by this evening's GFS and ECM.

 

GFS..ECM..

 

Makes for great viewing though.

[weirpig]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ed, that's why I don't mind if these charts fail! very selfish of me I know, but for my location it's too early for snow, kinda hoping GFS is right, I wanna see cold setups 4 weeks from now

I understand that. But surely it must be better going into winter with a blocked setup and pressure on the vortex then a Atlantic driven pattern ?