Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Bobd29]

Love to see where that chart goes from there, but look at the PV it is in tatters...remarkable for a third way through November when we are accustomed to seeing it really ramp up!

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, Nouska said:

ECM ensemble mean at 360 hours is not showing anything way below average 850 temp wise but it does indicate the direction of travel will not be the S. westerly, mild variety of the last couple of Novembers.

There looks to be 2 distinct clusters developing on the London Ens graph as well so maybe signal muted, my guess that right at the end is the route back to cold after the aforementioned 60% of members which 'briefly' warm us up. Thanks for the chart.

 

EDIT  :   If your still around Sylvain, is there any chance you can fix the CFS monthly mean charts please.

Edited November 3, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[knocker]

21 minutes ago, Nouska said:

ECM ensemble mean at 360 hours is not showing anything way below average 850 temp wise but it does indicate the direction of travel will not be the S. westerly, mild variety of the last couple of Novembers.

Very true Nouska. But low pressure to the NNE and the Azores ridging a tad could see some systems winging in from the WNW.

Edited November 3, 2016 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Very true Nouska. But low pressure to the NNE and the Azores ridging a tad could see some systems winging in from the WNW.

Are they more likely to track on a more south Eeasterly direction than usual though, as opposed to just barrelling straight through us.

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are they more likely to track on a more south Eeasterly direction than usual though, as opposed to just barrelling straight through us.

Yes that would be the more likely scenario but all rather academic really.

Edited November 3, 2016 by knocker

[Nouska]

18 minutes ago, knocker said:

Very true Nouska. But low pressure to the NNE and the Azores ridging a tad could see some systems winging in from the WNW.

Indeed!

We all know the dangers of looking at blended solutions.

On the matter of JMA versus ECM - here's September stats for Europe region (last available).

You can play around with the parameters here.

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

 

 

 

[Ali1977]

Latest METO forecast suggest there is still a large degree of uncertainty from mid next week, although most point to a largely less cold feel.  It also says the East may hang on to the colder and dryer weather.

 Again, this is slightly different from yesterday with regards their wording, so the pattern is obviously very hard to predict with any degree of certainty even at this range.  I'm pretty sure the 12z and next ECM will put some meat on the bones, along with the 12z UKMO!!

Next please!!!

[bradymk]

Looks like Euro v America after a brief look at 00z suites. Feels like that's the 1000th time that has been the case while being on this forum. 

Looking at something more longer range.

JMA long range ensembles - Day 17-30 (19th Nov to 2nd Dec)

Obviously a more muted signal being almost a month away but clear signal for heights staying above normal to our north and below to our south. Nothing we don't really already know though and just reinforcing the potential for late November/early December. 

[legritter]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest METO forecast suggest there is still a large degree of uncertainty from mid next week, although most point to a largely less cold feel.  It also says the East may hang on to the colder and dryer weather.

 Again, this is slightly different from yesterday with regards their wording, so the pattern is obviously very hard to predict with any degree of certainty even at this range.  I'm pretty sure the 12z and next ECM will put some meat on the bones, along with the 12z UKMO!!

Next please!!!

Morning ,I was about to post a similar view of met office update , so to me it looks very uncertain after mid next week onwards  same as our visible models are showing .

But still uncertain whether we will get high pressure over Scandy or centred a little further south ,As ALI 1977 Said tonights runs could give us a few more clues ,So at least we have some good synoptics on offer ,the other out come could be diving low pressure areas ,all interesting stuff ,cheers gang 

[Polar Maritime]

Let's please keep METO outlook musings to the correct thread.

Thanks please continue.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a trend to milder (more average) beyond next midweek with ebb and flow of the Azores high vs lower heights to the nw / n / ne and for a while the Az High (ridging) has the best of it although it still looks changeable with the most unsettled weather across the north and the best of the fine weather further s / sw but later the high is forced further southwest and it's low pressure to the northwest which takes over and slowly pushes eastwards with an increasing chance of polar / arctic maritime incursions beyond mid month.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

CFS never the best model but starting to hint at a cold end to November!

[Barry12]

It's actually ECM, UKMO, JMA, NASA, NAVGEM vs GFS at the moment...

 

GFS

 

If the GFS is correct here, it will be the biggest upset since Leicester won the league!

Edited November 3, 2016 by Barry95

[Ravelin]

15 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

It's actually ECM, UKMO, JMA, NASA, NAVGEM vs GFS at the moment...

You forgot to mention the GEM, which seems to be sitting on the fence on this one...

[Ali1977]

I hope Ian doesn't mind me transfering this info to the thread!!

Indeed, and rapidly-growing spread remains evident post-Tuesday. Inspection of postage stamps shows a veritable raft of possible outcomes by Weds onwards (one member even with a deep low barelling-into the UK... just to keep us entertained!). However, both Op & experimental runs of 00z EC do jointly lean to a muted recovery in temperatures after midweek, peaking to average for a period towards end of the week/into mid-month. Tail-end of experimental run then suggests these start falling-away. Nonetheless, given ongoing spread and varied to-and-fro between models and inter-run within their respective suites, it's inescapable that confidence into the 10-15 & 15-30d periods remains very low.

All to play for , but beware as the GFS may be on the right track. "may", however even if the GFS is correct we are not talking warm weather.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2016 by Ali1977

[Barry12]

Certainly a cold next 10 days if ECM is correct...

 

No mild Atlantic weather to be seen...

Edited November 3, 2016 by Barry95

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

Certainly a cold next 10 days if ECM is correct...

 

No mild Atlantic weather to be seen...

 

Yes Barry the Ecm operational looks great, we just want to see a flip back to colder from the ensembles, especially the GEFS..when I say we I just mean my fellow coldies

Edited November 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[Geordiesnow]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

If we look at t192 ECM has made a big change overnight

                        00z                                                                    12z

Which goes to show how volitile the output can be and why you always have to be wary when looking from run to run, It would not surprise me if the 12Z ECM pushes too much energy in the Northern arm of the jet and we see a flatter evolution. However even if it does, its far from a foregone conclusion.

Either way, still hoping we see the slow ridge coming off which should generate some nice chilly frosty autuminal weather regardless what happens afterwards.

[Glacier Point]

Either way, those chasing rain are not going to be best pleased. Following a dry first two thirds to autumn on the back of a dry second half to the summer, winter recharge is going to become an issue.

[Seasonality]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes Barry the Ecm operational looks great, we just want to see a flip back to colder from the ensembles, especially the GEFS..when I say we I just mean my fellow coldies

Nice to see warmer uppers into Cornwall to keep @knocker happy  

[Frosty.]

Actually the Ecm 00z operational ties in more with the experts latest thoughts with colder & drier conditions more likely to continue further east / south-east than the atlantic mobility shown on the GEFS mean beyond next midweek..The Ecm is actually more bullish about cold weather persisting across the whole of the uk compared to the MO which is more of a halfway house with slightly milder air making it into the w / nw.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[Derecho]

Remember back in January 2013 when the GFS fell apart as it kept modelling for the Atlantic to blow away the Scandi high?

What actually happened was the block held firm and we got a decent cold spell for two weeks, I see some parallels potentially developing here.

If the UKMO also becomes firmly on board I think the GFS will also be dragged in.

Never underestimate stubborn cold over Scandi , interesting 12z's to come up.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Quicksilver1989

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Never underestimate stubborn cold over Scandi

I must say the Scandinavian cold looks impressive 

 

Edited November 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[MattH]

Given general model guidance and the overal signals from the EPS then, for now at least, it is the milder more W or SW'ly type that is 'most likely'. Clearly in meteorology there is always scope for another option, so certainly a few more model runs required to determine whether the more anticyclonic, colder regime is indeed maintained across the UK throughout most of next week, or whether a milder flow arrives from the W or SW. The spread becomes evident from next Tue/Wed but note for Reading at least the 00Z EC HRES (Deterministic) whilst at the bottom end of the spread isn't, overall, an outlier in terms of 850mb temps, but certainly some difference between CTR and HRES.

Compared with the likes of the GEM and the GFS mind from 00Z then it certainly is an outlier...

http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=eur&lang=en&size=large&run=00&stn=PNM&&range=long&type=sidebyside&hh=240

My money is on the block being removed circa Tue/Wed of next week...as things stand!

Matt.

[gottolovethisweather]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I must say the Scandinavian cold looks impressive 

 

 

 

That chart could easily be atypical of a February 7th chart, nevermind a November 7th chart. Winter's coming early to a whole host of countries over in Europe, will it spread its cold-loving hands over our little island as well, is the big big question. I think it will, especially given the propensity for Northerly based winds over Westerlies and those continual progressively colder dry blocking air masses around nearby as Glacier Point also alluded to. 

Edited November 3, 2016 by gottolovethisweather