Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

This is classic ECM territory though. Almost always the first to see a breakthrough of the trough to split west / east heights.

If T168 did materialise, you'd have to raise serious questions about when the Atlantic would eventually get in.

I suspect (and have done since all this kicked off tbh) that the second half of Nov will see zonality (of sorts) but will it be rampant zonality with trough after trough raging through Scotland-Iceland or quasi zonality by where its wet and rainy but with a steady trough over us or to the west which will still be driving warm air into the polar regions thus attacking the strat and trop vortices?, will the zonal winds in the strat still be running below average when the vortex does intensify?, will it still be vulnerable to more attacks and easier to bring down completely as we get well into December?

[bobbydog]

Just for the 'atlantic energy worriers'-

 

I'm seeing lots of similarities in the NH  profile to this year.

And.... after much teasing, through the floor she goes- 

[winterof79]

15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is classic ECM territory though. Almost always the first to see a breakthrough of the trough to split west / east heights.

If T168 did materialise, you'd have to raise serious questions about when the Atlantic would eventually get in.

The GFS suite is not a million miles away from what the ECM shows at 168

Nor the controle

 

Peturbs 1,9,10,16 and 17 all show Scandi height rises at that time frame so all to play for.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

Meanwhile it will be cold for the foreseeable.

Edited November 2, 2016 by winterof79

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Just for the 'atlantic energy worriers'-

 

I'm seeing lots of similarities in the NH  profile to this year.

And.... after much teasing, through the floor she goes- 

Yes, the time to worry is when the trop vortex is massive and round shaped with no wave breaking, when the zonal winds start running above average and when the 10mb temps over the pole get near to -80c, until that time, I remain optimistic for the first half of winter.

Edited November 2, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Frosty.]

plenty of early cold heading our way according to the Ecm 00z..BANK!

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

 

Meanwhile it will be cold for the foreseeable.

You hit the nail on the head, very good to see a cold outlook and tonight looks even colder than last night..I'm relishing the next 4/5 months!

Edited November 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Brutal cold slips away NE as the UK is suffused in a warm glow. And the Black Sea the destination for an Autumn break.

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Brutal cold slips away NE as the UK is suffused in a warm glow. And the Black Sea the destination for an Autumn break.

Indeed knocker, 3 or so days of very warm (unusually warm) days for that region coming up. There looks to be a return to average after that, though. Personally I'm looking forward to a little warm up, as it was a cold October and I feel Autumn skipped. 

[Summer Sun]

GFS control is most definitely on the warm side from the 12th

As for the Inverness snow row it still looks good for the 5th with a peak of 17

[vase1234]

32 minutes ago, knocker said:

Brutal cold slips away NE as the UK is suffused in a warm glow. And the Black Sea the destination for an Autumn break.

and Greenland is suffused in a HOT glow...hmmmm.

[gottolovethisweather]

35 minutes ago, knocker said:

Brutal cold slips away NE as the UK is suffused in a warm glow. And the Black Sea the destination for an Autumn break.

 

 

I like the look of that, given it's at a D7 to D10 range and it suggests average temperatures at worse (for coldies like me) away from the rain-affected NW where it will be briefly milder. Kind of sounds like where we are right now in fact, temperatures perhaps a degree or two up on current values. With Europe looking cold and all that bottled up cold over the Russian territories, it'll be a mighty battle for the default zonality cup, it will likely go into extra time. A few chilly/cool days for most of us, with a brief interruption of a rainband/showers on Friday before a return to largely crisp and dry weather thereafter.

Edited November 2, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

A cold start to next week before temperatures recover slightly by the end of the week as winds shift around to more of a westerly

[karlos1983]

So having a break from model watching was going well, until this happened 

 You little tease you

I shall be going nowhere for the foreseeable

Edited November 2, 2016 by karlos1983

[carinthian]

Morning all, Cold lovers chart of the day from ECM at 144 hours. Super cold Scandinavia uppers, Baltic blizzards. Arctic Continental Cold air mass advection into Northern and Central Britain.  Lots of variance in model outcomes. I would favour now that the cold scenario continues . ECM and particularly GEM has held heights in the 7-10 day period over Scandinavia with possible frontal stalling over the Western part of the British Isles with a possible upper trough forming near to the British Isles (NW/SE axis ) Great model watching continues.

PS . My daughter in Stockholm reports the first snowfall of the season in the City this morning.

C

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

So having a break from model watching was going well, until this happened 

I shall be going nowhere for the foreseeable

If this GFS run follows, or moves closer to the ECM I imagine a busy day ahead in this forum - if however it doesn't, I'd be surprised if the ECM doesn't back-track later.

[terrier]

I can't see the gfs following the ecm to be honest. Ecm doesn't have much support for the Scandinavia high in its ensembles. Think we will see the ecm move towards the gfs on tonight's output. Looks like gfs 00z wants to bring some sort of westerly influence into next week. Still settled but not feeling as cold as these few days coming up. Then from there who knows. But we are certainly a million miles away from last year looking at the northern hemisphere. 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If this GFS run follows, or moves closer to the ECM I imagine a busy day ahead in this forum - if however it doesn't, I'd be surprised if the ECM doesn't back-track later.

I'm not holding my breathe, BUT it certainly isn't out of the question. if the GFS 06z doesn't follow, then probability does go down, but 12z runs will decide this IMHO.

[Met4Cast]

Better WAA on the 06z compared to the 00z. Hopefully that'll make a difference and we'll lean more towards a cold outcome with this run. Cracking ECM, been hinting at the Scandi High for a couple of days. Until there's more support for it though, not worth paying it too much attention.

[karlos1983]

ECM Ensemble support to my untrained eye 

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Brutal cold slips away NE as the UK is suffused in a warm glow. And the Black Sea the destination for an Autumn break.

Come now Knocker, that shows 0 degrees anomaly for most of the UK and you know it unless you mean the warm glow of the North Sea 

[weirpig]

 Slightly Different orientation of the high  and colder uppers on this run  were will it lead?

Edited November 2, 2016 by weirpig

[karlos1983]

Close but no Cigar as far as the GFS 06z is concerned. But the opportunity certainly still exists because it is not a million miles away. More runs needed 

[booferking]

Atlantic held back more in this run improvement in my eyes..

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Atlantic held back more in this run improvement in my eyes..

Looks rather messy over Greenland though, those deep purples aren't something we'd ideally want to see - WAA into the Arctic from North America though, might see the PV lobe over Greenland move Eastwards towards Scandi in the later frames.

Overall, quite a messy picture from the models to start the day today. Encouraging signs from the GFS with regards to SSW and zonal wind reversal though.

[Man With Beard]

GFS 06Z - massive move towards the ECM in my opinion. A little bit of disruption around T168 (traditionally GFS op is later on the disruption radar than the ECM op) - low heights stay more significant over Europe and by T192 there's nearly a meet-up of cold between NW and SE - cold continental air still over the SE, and the milder uppers quickly being squeezed out in the middle:

not breathtaking uppers by this time but certainly not mild.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Man With Beard