Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[legritter]

Just now, fergieweather said:

Correct. GloSea5 points to a weakened PV throughout the period. Note the markedly low probability for +ve avg temperatures overall (compare to last year's prognosis!). Anyway, it's all for a different thread: Apols mods. :-)

Thanks for your contributions ,certainly some interesting times ahead , Great though that we dont know whats far ahead in this model output forum ,remember back in the 1980s getting charts posted to me from weather centre , big improvements of course these days but nice to know that every day see,s a new possibility .

Great that we have probably the best forum around ,especially when you see some of the rubbish turned out on other outlets etc ,cheers .

[bluearmy]

Just a note that the eps AO out to mid Nov has gone from -2 yesterday 00z to -1.4 today

the 06z gefs also more neutral beyond the first week than previously shown

absolutely no doubt that the current direction of travel is 'towards less blocked at the higher latitudes week 2 although nothing very convincing as yet. 

Also note that the eps extended having been keen to drop the low sceuro anomaly at the end of week 2 has now restored it over the past couple  runs and infact the 00z update showed quite a marked sceuro upper trough which deflected the invigorated northern arm se across the U.K. on the eastern side of the Atlantic high anomaly. If upstream sharpens up a bit more (as it probably will as the days tick by) then wouldn't take much of a retrogressive nudge to get us the cold side of that again. 

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Just a note that the eps AO out to mid Nov has gone from -2 yesterday 00z to -1.4 today

the 06z gefs also more neutral beyond the first week than previously shown

absolutely no doubt that the current direction of travel is 'towards less blocked at the higher latitudes week 2 although nothing very convincing as yet. 

Also note that the eps extended having been keen to drop the low sceuro anomaly at the end of week 2 has now restored it over the past couple  runs and infact the 00z update showed quite a marked sceuro upper trough which deflected the invigorated northern arm se across the U.K. on the eastern side of the Atlantic high anomaly. If upstream sharpens up a bit more (as it probably will as the days tick by) then wouldn't take much of a retrogressive nudge to get us the cold side of that again. 

 

Blue, just a quickie if i may. In light of the recent UKMO winter forecast does anyone have any access to GLosea ? I assume its behind a paywall ?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Blue, just a quickie if i may. In light of the recent UKMO winter forecast does anyone have any access to GLosea ? I assume its behind a paywall ?

I would imagine glosea is only visible to Exeter 

if you pay a big whack then I suspect they will give you forecasts based on the model runs but pretty confident the actual model output is restricted 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I would imagine glosea is only visible to Exeter 

if you pay a big whack then I suspect they will give you forecasts based on the model runs but pretty confident the actual model output is restricted 

Thanks Blue, i suspected as much .Glosea evidently forecasting a cold winter for NW Europe, presumably the model is going for some sort of Strat warming quite soon if the text is inline with it, fwiw i'm not a big fan of LRF but i will quite happily snatch Exeters hand off if thatupdate is anywhere near correct!

[weirpig]

Tweeted by Judah.  Look at the temp Anom  in Northern America

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Blue, i suspected as much .Glosea evidently forecasting a cold winter for NW Europe, presumably the model is going for some sort of Strat warming quite soon if the text is inline with it, fwiw i'm not a big fan of LRF but i will quite happily snatch Exeters hand off if thatupdate is anywhere near correct!

It's hard to gauge how cold they are actually saying it could be. Below average looks likely but how far would presumably be subject to change.

I wonder what the Nov planners forecast was saying in 2009 and 2010.

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Blue, i suspected as much .Glosea evidently forecasting a cold winter for NW Europe, presumably the model is going for some sort of Strat warming quite soon if the text is inline with it, fwiw i'm not a big fan of LRF but i will quite happily snatch Exeters hand off if thatupdate is anywhere near correct!

Maybe Ian can confirm, but I guess because the update suggests easterly and northerly winds bringing the cold, it would suggest that the model is showing Europe would be on the colder than average side as well.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Maybe Ian can confirm, but I guess because the update suggests easterly and northerly winds bringing the cold, it would suggest that the model is showing Europe would be on the colder than average side as well.

 

 

Its hard to imagine the UK being cold and the rest of Europe being mild Jvenge. Not sure if ian will put any meat on the bones for us all at some point, for me personally its a long range forecast model which always have a high risk attached to them so although it is of course exciting news, i havent gone from guarded mode to full on iriational crazy snow fanatic just yet...:D

Edited November 1, 2016 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It's hard to gauge how cold they are actually saying it could be. Below average looks likely but how far would presumably be subject to change.

I wonder what the Nov planners forecast was saying in 2009 and 2010.

There wasn't one as such

glosea 4 ( the predecessor to 5) must have been seeing late Nov/Dec quite clearly as the 30 dayer was pretty specific on v cold from early Nov)

 

[karlos1983]

37 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Tweeted by Judah.  Look at the temp Anom  in Northern America

Those Graphics don't add up to me. So what it is showing effectively is that almost the entire northern hemisphere is going to run above average temps? That makes no sense to me.

Edited November 1, 2016 by karlos1983

[Scandinavian High.]

Looking cold for December.

Edited November 1, 2016 by abbie123

[karlos1983]

Lots of scatter on the Ensembles post D6, with some cold runs in there too, which is encouraging, and some warm ones for Sidney.

A crazy run in there for Berlin, I do like an underdog..

 

Edited November 1, 2016 by karlos1983

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Looking cold for December.

That would be extremely cold if true, not far off a CET of 0c going off those dark blues.

[Mucka]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Just a note that the eps AO out to mid Nov has gone from -2 yesterday 00z to -1.4 today

the 06z gefs also more neutral beyond the first week than previously shown

absolutely no doubt that the current direction of travel is 'towards less blocked at the higher latitudes week 2 although nothing very convincing as yet. 

Also note that the eps extended having been keen to drop the low sceuro anomaly at the end of week 2 has now restored it over the past couple  runs and infact the 00z update showed quite a marked sceuro upper trough which deflected the invigorated northern arm se across the U.K. on the eastern side of the Atlantic high anomaly. If upstream sharpens up a bit more (as it probably will as the days tick by) then wouldn't take much of a retrogressive nudge to get us the cold side of that again. 

 

 

I like this idea and it is something GFS has been sniffing at if not modeling.

I could very easily see a sliding low into central Europe with WAA toward Scandi and much better amplification in the Atlantic sector in run up to mid month which would give a potentially cold and blocked period after mid month.

Pure speculation at that range and tempered by a slight trend toward a more Westerly regime in the output but as you say it wouldn't take a great deal of changes to start seeing a strong Atlantic block and WAA toward Greenland again at those ranges.

[Ali1977]

Is the EC seasonal  due in the next few days also, that showed a very blocked and cold looking pattern last month which now looks quite possible.

[igloo]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Tweeted by Judah.  Look at the temp Anom  in Northern America

 

i'm not really surprised of this the temps for the year as a whole has been well above average and will more than likely continue get used to this its the norm for now on 

[karlos1983]

Looking at the ECM ensemble 850's you can take the positive right out to +240hrs shown below that in contrast to the Pacific, the Atlantic Temperature gradient is much more spread out (if that makes sense) still, so that shouldn't translate to a steam train of a Jet heading across the Atlantic in stark contrast to the Pacific NW. Which the GFS shows quite nicely.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2016 by karlos1983

[Gael_Force]

54 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Those Graphics don't add up to me. So what it is showing effectively is that almost the entire northern hemisphere is going to run above average temps? That makes no sense to me.

It's well out of date; run early october. New run out in this next week usually.

[karlos1983]

Just now, Gael_Force said:

It's well out of date; run early october. New run out in this next week usually.

ah ok, cheers G_F

[feb1991blizzard]

59 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Those Graphics don't add up to me. So what it is showing effectively is that almost the entire northern hemisphere is going to run above average temps? That makes no sense to me.

A lot of these long range models seem to do that, watch Gav's seasonal model round up on Gavsweathervids on youtube, they show mild for us even when theres huge areas of srongly +ve height anoms stretching right the way from Iceland to E Scandinavia!!  and some show no cold throughout the Northern hemisphere whatsoever sometimes, the ones that are of any use are JMA,ECM and GLOSEA5, the Jamstec is the most ridiculous thing ive ever seen

Edited November 1, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Yarmy]

3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

It's well out of date; run early october. New run out in this next week usually.

Cohen is being mischievous too, I suspect, as his own theory will likely predict a -AO winter which would paint a somewhat different picture to the anomalies he's posted.

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

It's well out of date; run early october. New run out in this next week usually.

whoops yes should have added  that was just to illustrate the temp anom  in North America  I expect big changes this month.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A lot of these long range models seem to do that, watch Gav's seasonal model round up on Gavsweathervids on youtube, they show mild for us even when theres huge areas of srongly +ve height anoms stretching right the way from Iceland to E Scandinavia!!  and some show no cold whatsoever sometimes, the ones that are of any use are JMA,ECM and GLOSEA5, the Jamstec is the most ridiculous thing ive ever seen

I think it all depends on which historical mean they're using to base the temperature anomalies on. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I think it all depends on which historical mean they're using to base the temperature anomalies on. 

It should be 1980-2010, that's industry standard surely by now, all the data for the last decade must have been verified.