Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

And even before that very disturbed end, the Ecm 12z becomes cold from the North next weekend and early week 2 with 528 dam thicknesses and even 522 dam almost touching the far NE (Shetland) for a time. There would be some upland snow for sure across the north of the uk, in fact, this cold end to the week is now firming up quickly.

Edited October 30, 2016 by Frosty.

[Dancerwithwings]

Don't know what all the fuss is about

[Scandinavian High.]

Staying blocked No westerly in there 

[phil nw.]

Modeling continues to show a colder change after mid-week as the first widespread unsettled weather spreads south courtesy of a low moving down from the Iceland area bringing with it polar sourced air.

 

It looks like we will see the jet aligning more NW-SE as future disturbances move down towards us with ongoing Atlantic ridging turning the upper flow north westerly.Temperatures falling towards the early November average with some days quite chilly,especially further north where snow over higher levels could well come into forecasting.

The air not yet cold enough for anything Wintry of a widespread nature but a more changeable and unsettled pattern is coming up by the looks of it- more on the colder side as the jet heads further south leaving the UK more on the Polar side of it.

 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Staying blocked No westerly in there 

be great if it wasnt five weeks away!!!.the cfs do tent to switch now and then but regarding oct- nov im not sure

[nick sussex]

After being the most bullish on the cold the GFS brings us the bloated slowly filling low stuck over the UK which means any cold is stuck to the north and ne. The UKMO solution is somewhat better with the ECM now at least clearing the low centre to the se. Having said this we lose the cold advection quicker as it pulls another low se'wards.

Regardless that the models agree on the overall pattern the issue of what the low does seems uncertain and with it whether it will be wet and cool or colder with some higher ground snow.

In terms of a second low dropping south/se again the issue of how strong any pressure rise will be to the west/nw will be to help drive the cold air se and whether we end up with another slow moving low or if this can clear to the se.

At this point the juries out, best to not get any high expectations here re cold and possible snow. It could develop into something colder than whats shown at this time but equally could turn into a bit of a damp squib.

 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

be great if it wasnt five weeks away!!!.the cfs does tend to switch now and then but regarding oct- nov im not sure

The cfs was showing mild recently so let's hope it stays cold

I'm not seeing anything mild as such after tomorrow really..and plenty of cold.

Edited October 30, 2016 by Frosty.

[Country Boy]

Well there are changes already going on. North California is having heavy rain after a two year drought and southern  Canada is starting to get a severe winter warning after two years of mild winters..And this winter is looking different from the last two for the U.K...lets hope the models get it right this year and make it... Third time lucky ????

 

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well we look like getting very unsettled, but the LPs are coming NW/SE angle if not steeper.  I'll take that.....Atlantic zoneality not in the game.  I have a feeling we will see lots of this type of set up this winter.  

BFTP

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Staying blocked No westerly in there 

Lovely setup abbie. Lets hope we get all these half hearted Greenland heights in November, with the real deal arriving in December like you show.  

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows an unsettled outlook and temps generally below average with indications of Pm / Am incursions at times as high pressure builds north in the atlantic and a nice trough alignment to the NE..so, winds generally from north of west but next weekend into the start of week 2 they veer Nly / NEly and towards mid Nov there are signs of further arctic maritime incursions.

Edited October 30, 2016 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All. After a very mild end to October is Winter starting Early???? We have been waiting for these synoptics  for a long time now. ............

[sorepaw1]

I live 534ft asl in North Yorkshire .and studied charts for 30years .my subaru forester is booked in for winter tyres normally I wait till December to have them fitted. Off topic sorry. But I'm not going to underestimate these set of charts. I've been monitoring the situation for several days now.

[Eskimo]

Because I'm bored and there's a lull until the next GFS run, I thought I'd share this. The difference between the forecast this year and the actual outcome last year and the year before. 

Today                                                             This time last year...                               2014

Forecast in 7 days.                                      Actual outcome last year                       2014

Forecast in 14 days                                    Actual outcome last year                         2014

What is distinctly lacking in the current forecasts is the long fetch south-westerlies that previous years had, which is obviously a standard pattern for this time of year.                                                      

[lorenzo]

I think we are overdue a pub run special to repeat Fergies 'Cold Nirvana' run - and @Steve Murr good call with sliders...

We are moving into the realms of snippets of hope for cold showing at all avenues on the modelling at present - really is fascinating, am 80% convinced it's a new mode of the atmosphere we are looking at given Arctic Sea Ice anoms - but plenty to do and watch unfold to endorse that view.

ECM out to day 10 has multi wave blocking, solar going flat and this I revisited from Ant on twitter - 4 easterly shear zones across EQ still in play at D10.

Play this out from the main high dissipating over Scandi which in itself you ccould argue was anomalous and imprinting on future evolution- one could have sensibly suggested a westerly regime taking over, seems even the canonical takeover is not ready to occur yet..

[NorthYorksWeather]

13 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I live 534ft asl in North Yorkshire .and studied charts for 30years .my subaru forester is booked in for winter tyres normally I wait till December to have them fitted. Off topic sorry. But I'm not going to underestimate these set of charts. I've been monitoring the situation for several days now.

Hopefully they will get a workout soon, do you live in the North York Moors? If so ECM shows the chance of wintry showers to high ground in that area next week, GFS not so keen. My snow tyres are on standby just in case 

[Zakos]

00z06z12z18z

Blocking in the Atlantic on Friday decisively better on each run with a more amplified pattern and better angle of WAA into Greenland

The GFS wants to flatten the pattern in the Atlantic, but it appears mother nature is having none of it.

Edited October 30, 2016 by Zakos

[feb1991blizzard]

-8c lurking a lot nearer, we could see it put in a British  isles appearance on this run.

[knocker]

Looking at the anomalies tonight, although all on the same page, there are enough differences vis precise orientation of the Scandinavian trough and Atlantic ridging to still leave open precisely how the surface analysis will evolve. For example the orientation of the trough adjacent to the UK is somewhat dependent on how the upper low which emanates from the Canadian vortex phases in with it and whether subsequently the resulting trough is positively tilted. This in turn is influenced by the extent and strength of the Atlantic HP. This will all influence the surface low pressure development in the eastern Atlantic. Fascinating stuff. I don't see alot of point in looking further ahead at this stage but it's looking much like Atlantic ridge, weakening trough, NW flow. I'll throw in the ecm 850mb as I posted the GEFS earlier

Edited October 30, 2016 by knocker

[Wilxy]

Over 100mm of Rain over the Welsh border if 18z verified just as well its still a week away so hopefully wouldn't be as bad as shown here!

[knocker]

And it could well have downstream connotations

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Its a shame its so early because in January some of these runs lately would have given us a right ol pelting!

 

The Mid strat vortex is coming under fire again at the end of the run as well. showing signs of splitting right up to 30, maybe even 10mb.

Edited October 30, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[lorenzo]

Won't often post a chart from the ridiculous realms of FI for any kind of narrative guidance.

However.

Just look at where the cold is loaded... not outwith the realms of impossibility for things to go right for once in what 5 years...

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a shame its so early because in January some of these runs lately would have given us a right ol pelting!

 

The Mid strat vortex is coming under fire again at the end of the run as well. showing signs of splitting right up to 30, maybe even 10mb.

And........

she gives us a nice smile at the end of the run

[snowy weather]

2 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Won't often post a chart from the ridiculous realms of FI for any kind of narrative guidance.

However.

Just look at where the cold is loaded... not outwith the realms of impossibility for things to go right for once in what 5 years...

 

 

(Very much a novice here) but those uppers dont look too cold for the uk?