Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[feb1991blizzard]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes I would agree with that obviously but have taken 5/2 with Ladbrokes.

 

Very good odds there, I think the ecm scenario is favourite and would back it at odds on, still think theres a chance of blocking continuing though even with ecm 240.

[karlos1983]

I know it's at +240, but it's an ominous sign on the ECM 00z. PV lobe right back where we don't want it. Not a given, but certainly one to keep an eye on now over the next runs. 

However there is also good general agreement now that it will turn much colder next weekend, with any showers likely to be turning more and more wintry on higher ground. 

I would imagine somewhere in the northeast with elevation will do quite well out of the below. 

Edited October 30, 2016 by karlos1983

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Yes I would agree with that obviously but have taken 5/2 with Ladbrokes.

 

A look at the 00z EC ens mean/anomaly suggests the mid-N Atlantic / Sern Greenland +ve height anomaly relaxing and slipping S/SW by day 10 - as 500mb vortex over Nern Canada shifts slowy E into Greenland. So the 00z deterministic maybe on to something wrt the flow shifting back to a NWly. But ens mean/anomaly charts are by no means a foregone conclusion that far out.

 

 

Edited October 30, 2016 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

ECM and GEM both lower pressure over Greenland by D9 to 10

More runs needed as ever

Edited October 30, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

I'm delighted by the 00z output this morning, especially the gfs but even the Gem has improved significantly since 24 hours ago and now looks in tune with the other models and beyond day 10 suggests more cold weather upstream with the jet axis tilted nw / se..for a welcome change its good to be a coldie looking at cold charts which are not a distant pipe dream! 

Edited October 30, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

In the short term, a very mild possibly warm Halloween is on the way for England and Wales temperatures in the south could easily hit 19c

[bobbydog]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

I know it's at +240, but it's an ominous sign on the ECM 00z. PV lobe right back where we don't want it. Not a given, but certainly one to keep an eye on now over the next runs. 

However there is also good general agreement now that it will turn much colder next weekend, with any showers likely to be turning more and more wintry on higher ground. 

I would imagine somewhere in the northeast with elevation will do quite well out of the below. 

Sorry, but I see fragments of a smashed up PV, transiting across Greenland in your first chart.

Consider where we were at that stage last year-

That was a strong looking PV we had there.

At this point, nothing in the charts gives me any cause for concern. Quite the opposite in fact....

[legritter]

Looking at todays charts a cooling off generally still looks on the cards for next week ,but beyond day 7 i feel that we have many options .There is some chatter on forums about the Vortex getting its act together , which i,m sure will set hearts a racing  But at this range and in this unusual pattern for october could be in many positions ,we could get a vortex set up in its usual home for us but high pressure also setting up in a favourable position that we get a good shot at some cold air .

All very complex [as usual ] but i do feel that some interesting times are ahead for us Model watchers ,so with 13 weeks of winter still to come and 4 weeks of autumn left please dont get down beat ,will be interesting to see if ECM 9/10 day chart later maintains some sort of high pressure to our far west /n west ,we are not alone in this quiet almost Calm situation , across the pond things are similar but some models are now toying with some action setting up in about 10/15 days time ,Action will come but not untill Mother nature gets to work on our upper air patterns , looking forward to future discussions on the best forum for weather ,cheers Gang 

[Nouska]

7 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, not sure what the verification stats are like but the FIM model seems to be doing a reasonable job in the 6/10 day area when anecdotally compared to ecm/gfs 

the 12z run is a broad reflection of the ecm parallel in its latter stages (which isn't far from the ecm op) 

The FIM has done a good job, so far, in picking out the blocking this autumn. Quite a difference in the fifteen day forecast between it and the GFS.

GFS  FIM 

Blocking centres on the FIM move to just east of us and round the dateline in week two. How that translates to surface features - a story still to unfold.

http://fim.noaa.gov/blocking/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=gfs_blocking_jet&domain=full&run_time=29+Oct+2016+-+12Z

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Sorry, but I see fragments of a smashed up PV, transiting across Greenland in your first chart.

Consider where we were at that stage last year-

That was a strong looking PV we had there.

At this point, nothing in the charts gives me any cause for concern. Quite the opposite in fact....

Well at no point did I say we were at anything like last year bobbydog? So if you compare yesterday's 00z from the ecm to today's ecm there is quite a difference. And personally I'd rather it wasn't showing the low heights over Greenland compared to yesterday. That's all.

 

[Ali1977]

Even if there are a few signs of things gathering pace at day 10 over Greenland, there was talk of the AO tanking even further later Nov and into Dec so it may only be a temporary glitch in the NH if it happens at all. 

It's only late oct and even the classic winters had a build up of PV at some point early in the Winter season, all things are still looking interesting for us coldies. 

[bluearmy]

The 00z eps at their furthest point are splitting the jet streak upstream the other side of the Atlantic but the northern arm is stronger and further north than in the preceding two weeks 

the options remain fairly wide for the time being - will probably be Thursday/Friday this week before we get a handle on which way the 14/24th Nov is likely headed

If I had a gun pointed at me I would plump for mid lat high sat close to the UK - centred just west of Ireland 

bit of a kop out !

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well at no point did I say we were at anything like last year bobbydog? So if you compare yesterday's 00z from the ecm to today's ecm there is quite a difference. And personally I'd rather it wasn't showing the low heights over Greenland compared to yesterday. That's all.

 

I wasn't trying to suggest you did I just think that we will see charts like you posted verify. That's not a bad thing, following the sequence of the ECM, it appears that the PV lobe is moving across Greenland which could then (hopefully) sink into scandi, leaving a void behind it for high pressure to ridge into. That huge aleutian low seems pretty consistent which keeps part of the PV over there. We will see some ebb and flow in the atmosphere, the key here is that the blocking theme keeps coming back. That in itself is unusual and as long as it keeps happening, this winter will be very different to the last few years. 

[Frosty.]

The Gefs 00z mean is impressive if you like below average or cold temps and generally unsettled trough dominated weather with the flow north of west and sometimes east of north with ridging in the atlantic. This would bring rain and showers and sometimes windy weather but also cold enough for wintry ppn at times, especially on northern high ground where snow could accumulate. Night frosts also look more likely with icy patches and freezing fog could also make an appearance..This could be a good November for coldies!

Edited October 30, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

GFS looks like another upgrade towards blocking on this run by bonfire night. Bottom one is the latest showing more WAA into Greenland.

There is a fair difference with regards PV at this point with the ECM, ECM has it building to the NW of Greenland , GFS has it to the North and it looks like its heading East... Not sure where that would lead us but may be important down the line.

Edited October 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Here's what I mean, PV looks very different even by day 8...FI therefore before this point.

Edited October 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[karlos1983]

A chilly day for most next Sunday if the gfs 06z is to be believed, with frost setting in come early evening for some. Might have my fireworks on the Sunday! 

Edited October 30, 2016 by karlos1983

[MR EXTREMES]

just to put things into perspective 2 charts november the 7th 2009 and todays gfs 6z 

 and then 20th november 2009

 

Edited October 30, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[Sky Full]

I remain a rank novice at model output interpretation compared with almost everyone else posting in this thread but I think I know enough to like these images from the GFS this morning.  Colder air seems to be creeping our way slowly but surely and to get snow anywhere in the model output south of the Cairngorms at this time of year is really promising!   Is it time to look at the odds for a white Christmas I wonder? 

[karlos1983]

Sorry, but away from elevation, I'm not expecting anything witty falling out of the sky. The air isn't cold enough this time round. However, hopeful that the scene is set for changes further down the line. 

[Day 10]

Nice GFS 6z:

Still looking good, especially when winter hasn't even begun yet!

Law of averages and all that, a decent (cold/snow) winter is due.

Edited October 30, 2016 by Minus 10

[snowflakey]

25 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

Nice GFS 6z:

Still looking good, especially when winter hasn't even begun yet!

Law of averages an all that, a decent (cold/snow) winter is due.

 

A very distressed looking PV to my untrained eye there,  the HP ridging over Greenland  seems to be doing a lot of damage.

Edited October 30, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To separate post from quote.

[Sn0wmad79]

2 hours ago, bobbydog said:

Sorry, but I see fragments of a smashed up PV, transiting across Greenland in your first chart.

Consider where we were at that stage last year-

That was a strong looking PV we had there.

At this point, nothing in the charts gives me any cause for concern. Quite the opposite in fact....

I wouldn't call it smashed up, I would call it under developed. Low heights start to dominate the arctic region prior to 120 so to me that is signalling the delayed but inevitable strengthening of the Polar Vortex and probably a return to a +AO. If modelling continues in the same vein then any weak ridging into Greenland will get flattened out as we head through Nov.

Model watching has been good the past week or so but I don't think there has ever been modelled a full on Greenland block and the chart posted in the quote from last year, well, we could end up back in that position by mid month imo.

[gottolovethisweather]

On 24/10/2016 at 18:33, gottolovethisweather said:

I haven't been following the models or model output discussion thread of late, but I think November will bring some quite widespread cold and wintry Synoptics to all. I like most others like to attempt their pattern match routines, and so far this Autumn and in part the Summer CET mean comparisons lend themselves to a 2010 situation developing. Given the blocking and deep cold bottled up under the stubborn upper high, it wouldn't take much for the cards to fall right for once. Please regard this, simply as a "gut feeling" post from gottolovethisweather, and not much else. A frosty bonfire night would be a good bet right now, I feel.

 

As others have stated, the Northern European picture has changed little for several days now, as my post from last Monday above shows and seemingly my attempt at a forecast still holds true as we head into the first 7-10 days of November. I do think most of us can make relatively accurate predictions (as can the models themselves) of the short-term and sometimes into the mid-term or further ahead, when High Pressure and associated blocking holding patterns rule the roost. As a result, I can't claim to be ahead of the game, yet when default zonality does eventually return, prepare yourselves for turmoil in here as inter and intra-run will chop and change like the err (forecasted) weather. FWIW, I see no reason to believe why we shouldn't get some early wintriness progressively heading south as we go deeper into the first half of November (especially favouring Northern and Eastern parts) as none of the model output suites are currently showing much else other than what I suggest. Wrap up warmly next bonfire weekend, is all I'll say for now.

[Zakos]

2 hours ago, bobbydog said:

I wasn't trying to suggest you did I just think that we will see charts like you posted verify. That's not a bad thing, following the sequence of the ECM, it appears that the PV lobe is moving across Greenland which could then (hopefully) sink into scandi, leaving a void behind it for high pressure to ridge into. That huge aleutian low seems pretty consistent which keeps part of the PV over there. We will see some ebb and flow in the atmosphere, the key here is that the blocking theme keeps coming back. That in itself is unusual and as long as it keeps happening, this winter will be very different to the last few years. 

I must admit, I was worried this morning by the ECM,I dont recall seeing deeply low heights setup over Greenland in a while from either ECM or GFS.

However, looking at the hemisphere the PV lobe does appear to be on the move rather than firmly setting up over Greenland, and I believe the WAA from the aluetion low  is displacing this lobe from Northern Canada, and as you said it could potentially sink into scandi.

 

Both ECM and GFS maintain the cold in Europe out to day 10, no reason for coldies to worry too much just yet

Edited October 30, 2016 by Zakos