Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Polar Maritime]

Some sharp frosts for the South showing for next Thursday..

Edited October 29, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Some sharp frosts for the South shown for next Thursday..

If this came true, this is probably as cold as it got all last year down here. 

[ALL ABOARD]

Better ECM run out to 144 so far , higher heights around Greenland and also better separation of the LP system.

 

[ALL ABOARD]

Spot the difference

168 ECM

 

 

 

Edited October 29, 2016 by ALL ABOARD

[Frosty.]

I'm liking where this Ecm run is heading..

 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Spot the difference

168 ECM

 

 

 

Great upgrade, along the lines GFS but an even better block to the NW. Are we slowly getting some agreement in the models here I wonder, 168 was the time that Ian F was saying was tricky to look beyond. 

[Frosty.]

I'm liking where this Ecm run is heading..

I'm liking it even more now!

 

[Spah1]

Just 8 days away 

[SMU]

Morning -

look at the ECM 192 - western Greenland Hint Hint !!

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning -

look at the ECM 192 - western Greenland Hint Hint !!

Very november 2010ish!remarkable similarities!!gfs ukmo and ecm look similar at 144 hours!!

[ALL ABOARD]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Great upgrade, along the lines GFS but an even better block to the NW. Are we slowly getting some agreement in the models here I wonder, 168 was the time that Ian F was saying was tricky to look beyond. 

Yeah totally agree. The thing for me is something I touched on the other day which is the continued lack of reformation in any run of the re emergence of the PV(in its usual home). Given model bias to revert to a 'normal' default pattern makes it even more interesting as any run that shows a hint of a more westerly regime is followed quite swiftly by the removal of this notion with subsequent runs. All in all it makes for very interesting model watching over the next couple of days(weeks).

 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning -

look at the ECM 192 - western Greenland Hint Hint !!

Beautiful, kinda bitter sweet really Steve, fast forward a month and i'd be foaming at the mouth, now if we could just see that purple blob north of Greenland to move east a couple of thousand miles

[Matthew.]

A showery cold next Saturday if the ECM 0z is on range. Mother Nature to do a clean sweep:

[Frosty.]

T+216 is better still, dare I say..this is looking very good for coldies.

[SMU]

The 216 chart has a pool of 524 thinkness over NE england, no doubt the 850's would be lower than 1290 !

[northwestsnow]

Look at those uppers heading into Greenland on the ECM

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Wonder what impacts that will have down the line...

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning -

look at the ECM 192 - western Greenland Hint Hint !!

No where near the depth of cold that was in place in 2010 unfortunately

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Look at those uppers heading into Greenland on the ECM

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Wonder what impacts that will have down the line...

And -16c 850s in Norway, which is our source of air in this set up.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

No where near the depth of cold that was in place in 2010 unfortunately

Beggars can't be choosers, I would take this Ecm 00z run anyday

Edited October 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

No where near the depth of cold that was in place in 2010 unfortunately

You can't compare this, this is late Nov. If anything -16c uppers now is probably as extreme than -20c late Nov.

Edited October 29, 2016 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

This is worth a Boom!

What a cracking Ecm 00z..much better than the 12z

[winterof79]

 

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Beggars can't be choosers, I would take this Ecm 00z run anyday

Agreed Frosty,I was just responding to the comparison with 2010.

All travelling in the right direction.....or left in this case

Edited October 29, 2016 by winterof79

[Newberryone]

Please don't disregard this mods as I feel it's not off topic and overall considerably relevant to the present discussion re medium term cold prospects...Just been listening to this mornings 7:55 weather update from Ireland's met service and what's being forecast from midweek onwards doesn't seem to concur with what we're seeing here on the likes of both the  Ecm and Gfs 00z  

Wednesday will be a mainly dry day with sunny spells followed by a cold, clear night with minimum temperatures coming closer to freezing with light to moderate northwesterly winds. The winds will begin to back to the southwest later. 

The further outlook to towards the end of next week is for southwesterly winds and temperatures around normal for the time of year. There's a signal for a spell of rain for Friday but otherwise a good deal of dry weather.

[knocker]

I won't run through the upper air evolution of the ecm as in many ways it's not dissimilar to the GFS and I'm sure it's been covered in the flurry of previous posts. Suffice it to say the main difference is that the second upper trough dips SE earlier next Friday over the UK as it phases in with the low pressure to the east.

So what does this mean vis the surface analysis, Friday 00z see a low to the NW with associated frontal systems lying across Ireland. The fronts quickly traverse the country and the low tracks SE and establishes a broad area of low pressure over the UK by Saturday 00z bringing some blustery showery conditions with temps below average. This low pressure area drifts east veering the winds northerly that drops the temps well below average and at the same time, hallelujah, a shortwave forms out west and runs up the channel. My cup runneth over.

[Frosty.]

It's worth pointing out the Gem 00z is rather milder than the Ecm 00z so nothing is in the bag but it's brilliant model watching, far more exciting than this stage last autumn which was run after run of Atlantic driven mild dross!