Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[ALL ABOARD]

Just find it so interesting that given GFS bias for zonality that each op run continues to show little or no return to the zonal onslaught that we have become all so familiar with over the past few winters . Interesting times ahead I believe. 

Any updates for us Ian F? 

18z .... Need I say anything else.

[Ice Day]

10 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

18z GFS going off on a November journey into a coldie's Nirvana. Did one of you lot hack into NCEP's dynamical core coding? ;-)

Ian - so you do get us!!!!

[northwestsnow]

The 18z really is great viewing ! !

Blocking galore across Greenland and scandanavia with Europe cooling down quite dramatically in the medium to long term, indeed Russia, the Baltics Belarus Ukraine etc all look primed for a very early freeze -

[Frosty.]

A cold end to the Gfs 18z but most of the snow affected France and Germany but we also get some snow and at least we all got some frosty weather later in low res.

 

[fergieweather]

12 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Just find it so interesting that given GFS bias for zonality that each op run continues to show little or no return to the zonal onslaught that we have become all so familiar with over the past few winters . Interesting times ahead I believe. 

Any updates for us Ian F? 

18z .... Need I say anything else.

No, not much to add other than I'm trying to recall the last time we saw output (irrespective of ultimate veracity) appear like this in early Nov. I'm sure someone keen on archive-fishing can tell us. Either way, as you rightly note the paucity of unambiguously zonal signals into medium range lately is all the more noteworthy, given typical model tendency to ultimately lean or revert towards climatology (ie a more energetic W'ly). In all honesty, it's all very extraordinary stuff (as per Lorenzo post), but we were anticipating an extended period of 'curiosities' to characterise NWP watching over coming days (weeks??).

Edited October 25, 2016 by fergieweather

[Ice Day]

32 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

No, not much to add other than I'm trying to recall the last time we saw output (irrespective of ultimate veracity) appear like this in early Nov. I'm sure someone keen on archive-fishing can tell us. Either way, as you rightly note the paucity of unambiguously zonal signals into medium range lately is all the more noteworthy, given typical model tendency to ultimately lean or revert towards climatology (ie a more energetic W'ly). In all honesty, it's all very extraordinary stuff (as per Lorenzo post), but we were anticipating an extended period of 'curiosities' to characterise NWP watching over coming days (weeks??).

As a rank amateur, these are certainly strange times to be model watching, I've never seen such inter run inconsistency over such a prolonged period. Ian - Is there an equal amount of head scratching going on at the Met Office?

Edited October 25, 2016 by Ice Day

[tight isobar]

Evening. 

No matter what the devient' of note! One thing is a "certainty"

Both thermodynamics and upper hemispheric evolution is of MAJOR interest.  (Polar vortex is uncomfortably in array) 'of note is the unlikely vergance of the eastwards progression 'of' which we haven't become a custom to for a while. 

The warmth v-alignment into polar geographical this season is in 'atm' massive favour to or part (uk) going forward. 

Its High time the progression into winter favour s our part for potential' for a turn of curve for winter synopsis for potential real winter for the for UK.....

Mass potential via output thus far..

*optimistic*

[SylvainTV]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Are you sure it's in the public domain?  I mean you linked to it so assume it's ok ?  Not sure what you meant by being wary about sharing the charts and then posting a link!! 

Anyway, it the parallel op is freely available, perhaps sylvain can stick it on meteociel as he often does pre implementation.

Hello, sorry can't do that, I have no access to parallel ECMWF data at all . It seems only customers have access to it.  I think he forgot to put a restriction on this page, ECMWF parallel data is usually even more restricted than operationnal data so it shouldn't be accessible freely, ( and the Op is actually available there too ... ). Maybe it's just a sample

Edited October 26, 2016 by SylvainTV

[SLEETY]

It be interesting how many of the infamous cold spells of the victoria n times and before had HLB like we are seeing now in Autumn,shame there are no charts that go back that far,I think they only go back to 1871 ,but THERE have been some notable cold spells since ,1871,has anyone checked the sypnotic patterns in late autumn preceding the cold spells since 1871??

[Frosty.]

Northern Europe goes into the freezer later on the Gfs 00z, the 18z was astonishing late on and so is this..and yes, just like the 18z the 00z shows some snow around in the first half of November.I will let these charts speak for themselves..dive bombing jet stream and all

[SLEETY]

Impressive charts ,last time I saw snow in first half of nov was ,1980,i think gosh at that depth of cold for so early in season,from gfs this morning

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Going by the GFS alone. I don't think it's right to just highlight the cold over 300 hours away because in all honesty the cold spell has never got any closer than 200 hours. It's an absolute mess until the low resolution because at that range it doesn't pick out the small areas of low pressure that forms due to large temperature gradients over warm seas. So whilst I'm not saying it won't go cold which is always possible with the vortex  in demolition mode I would urge caution before thinking we are gonna go cold because the last cold spell has that was forecast for this wkend has now upper air of +10 over us with no cold air coming into the mix until the very last few frames. Not saying this is right of course.

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Going by the GFS alone. I don't think it's right to just highlight the cold over 300 hours away because in all honesty the cold spell has never got any closer than 200 hours. It's an absolute mess until the low resolution because at that range it doesn't pick out the small areas of low pressure that forms due to large temperature gradients over warm seas. So whilst I'm not saying it won't go cold which is always possible with the vortex  in demolition mode I would urge caution before thinking we are gonna go cold because the last cold spell has that was forecast for this wkend has now upper air of +10 over us with no cold air coming into the mix until the very last few frames. Not saying this is right of course.

Agreed, what is great imo is that we are unlikely to get endless wind and rain for the foreseeable with chances of cold depending on how the blocking sets up. What more could we ask for at this time of year.

Edited October 26, 2016 by That ECM

[Matthew.]

ECM 0z:The Low misses virtually the whole of the Uk next Wednesday as it moves south to the west of Britain. No sign of cold just yet but it does move south:

Edited October 26, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[knocker]

Today

Mainly dry in England and Wales, and the eastern half of Scotland, but fog patches in the south in the light winds. A fresh westerly wind in Scotland with some patchy rain in the west.

What of the GFS this morning. I must admit when I saw the defibrillators on standby i feared the worst, But no.

Friday sees the high cell south of the UK with an upper trough, and a succession of low centres, running from the Canadian vortex to Scandinavia  and a not unimportant player a trough that has tracked up the eastern seaboard and is east of Newfoundland.

From here we have another amplification burst with the Euro HP ridging north disrupting the trough which swings south east bringing some cold air into eastern Europe and warm over the UK. Simultaneously the Newfoundland trough has phased in with the trough to the north to form a new trough running N/S in the eastern Atlantic which translates to some surface fronts edging in from the west.

from here we are back to a familiar scenario as the trough disrupts as HP ridges NE resulting in yet again a cut off low. I think I'll leave it there for the time being.

Edited October 26, 2016 by knocker

[Seasonality]

Lovely plunge of cold air into central and eastern Europe on the 12z GFS. And the snow row on the ensembles showing increasing chances for snow for Warsaw.

 

[knocker]

Well the ecm is thinking along the same lines as the GFS and has the disrupting trough to the west of the UK 18z Sunday and by 12z Tuesday we have the cut off upper low SW of Cornwall. Having said that it's a bit of weird looking chart. Anyway this low develops to give a broad area of low pressure over France by Friday with some ridging in mid Atlantic. It should perhaps be noted that this scenario does drag some quite warm air into the UK over the weekend.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2016 by knocker

[Frank Trough]

I can't believe how benign everything is! I can't be the only one who is missing a good autumn storm just a little bit? another mild/warm even Halloween to come:

 

didn't we used to get the odd frost in October?

I really hope we end up with all this initial blocking ending up in the right place so we get an early taste of winter. I can't help feeling that all the while the westerlies remain absent the chances of them returning (for they surely will) for the start of winter slowly rises.

[Frosty.]

Indian summer conditions from the Ecm 00z, really impressive charts from a warm perspective for so deep into autumn with 564 dam thicknesses encroaching on the south..and on the cusp of November! BBQ this weekend and early next week anyone?

Edited October 26, 2016 by Frosty.

[Dorsetbred]

7 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

I can't believe how benign everything is! I can't be the only one who is missing a good autumn storm just a little bit? another mild/warm even Halloween to come:

 

didn't we used to get the odd frost in October?

I really hope we end up with all this initial blocking ending up in the right place so we get an early taste of winter. I can't help feeling that all the while the westerlies remain absent the chances of them returning (for they surely will) for the start of winter slowly rises.

Bournemouth airport was down @ 0C last week.. Short range models showing seasons' last stand for some warmth?

Edited October 26, 2016 by Dorsetbred

[legritter]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Indian summer conditions from the Ecm 00z, really impressive charts from a warm perspective for so deep into autumn with 564 dam thicknesses encroaching on the south..and on the cusp of November! BBQ this weekend anyone?

yes bbq this weekend ,Brilliant interesting charts currently something for us to get our teeth into , something i hope is lurking out there ,cheers gang

[winterof79]

Oh yes did it!!!! and some

 

[Summer Sun]

An early November cold snap is far from done and dusted yet as this mornings ECM shows

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

An early November cold snap is far from done and dusted yet as this mornings ECM shows

Indeed Gavin, it s a nice benign very mild to warm outlook from the Ecm 00z, not a sniff of anything cold, quite the opposite in fact!

[Ali1977]

GFS and ECM are very different at day 10, I'm pretty sure we are nowhere near knowing the actual outcome at this point using these models. 

If anything the ECM is on it's own, the GFS , GEM and JMA are more in line with each other with a cleaner Greeny high and N/NE flow.  The JMA looks like the one many coldies would prefer in a perfect World.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Ali1977