Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[mpkio2]

And so the hunt for D10 on ECm begins yet again!

I think the 12z suite of models this afternoon demonstrate how quickly the models change; how they all have the ability to pick up a signal, drop it and then come back to it again.

I also believe that patience will be required this season and well-leveled-headedness. The models are gonna swish and flip and flop all over, but sitting back and waiting might be key.

Keep chins up cold lovers; we're in a btter position for cold weather this winter than we have been in a long time!

[blizzard81]

The ECM 12z op says "The great UK bonfire night blizzard of 2016 began with a low pressure system diving south across Scandinavia on the 02nd Nov. This advected very cold air from western Russia towards the UK over the next three days. At the same time, low pressure approached the UK from the south west - the rest is history" ;-)

[Timbo]

Well the way thing are shaping up with the models today, we could be on the way to a very cold period from mid November onwards.

The potential is there this year for the winter that we have all been praying for , bring it on !!!!!!!

Lets see how hard  the BEAST FROM THE EAST is, its been a little feline cat for to many years.

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The ECM 12z op says "The great UK bonfire night blizzard of 2016 began with a low pressure system diving south across Scandinavia on the 02nd Nov. This advected very cold air from western Russia towards the UK over the next three days. At the same time, low pressure approached the UK from the south west - the rest is history" ;-)

If only eh!!

[blizzard81]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

If only eh!!

Stranger things have happened :-o

[January Snowstorm]

I suppose we have to realise that the first bite won't be cold enough.

However it's the rinse & repeat that excites me as we move further into November.

Remember 2010 was a 1 in a 100 type event.....In its severity and depth of cold.

If it were to happen again so soon would be remarkable. I for one don't believe it will...

[knocker]

Interesting the key player with the ecm, or one of them, appears to be the cut off upper low to NW of the African coast. Depressions tracking up the eastern seaboard then NE phase with it as it declines and we have a trough in mid Atlantic and the beginning of another cut off low to the south west of the UK  This low could do as the ecm suggests and hang around to the south west and ultimately phase in with the trough to the east. What is also possible  is it creates a trough running south over the UK.

[SLEETY]

If the ecm verifies I cant see how the uk COULD not be heading for a cold spell fairly soon,if this mega northern blocking continues for much longer I should think the met office might be issuing early warnings to the local authorites ,that a cold winter could be heading for the uk !

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

If the ecm verifies I cant see how the uk COULD not be heading for a cold spell fairly soon,if this mega northern blocking continues for much longer I should think the met office might be issuing early warnings to the local authorites ,that a cold winter could be heading for the uk !

We are miles away from any Met office warnings. Let's not get carried away here.

 

Great charts for us coldies, but let's not bring newbies up a garden path here with such emotive talk!

[tcc]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

If the ecm verifies I cant see how the uk COULD not be heading for a cold spell fairly soon,if this mega northern blocking continues for much longer I should think the met office might be issuing early warnings to the local authorites ,that a cold winter could be heading for the uk !

Haha! You just know that ECM will show something different tomorrow!

[Ali1977]

On 25/10/2016 at 20:40, SLEETY said:

If the ecm verifies I cant see how the uk COULD not be heading for a cold spell fairly soon,if this mega northern blocking continues for much longer I should think the met office might be issuing early warnings to the local authorites ,that a cold winter could be heading for the uk !

You won't get the met office issuing warnings this early, that's more Daily Express territory. 

[Geordiesnow]

I wonder if there is potential for a record breaking halloween, I don't mean the overall record that was broken in 2014 but more localised ones like for NW  Scotland for example which would surely run it close looking at the ECM run.

Still too early regarding details as the UKMO/GFS does not back the ECM evoloution at 144 hours but the trend is pretty clear of turning milder then very warm for the weekend. Hopefully sunshine should be more widespread also as any fronts will be just flirting with the Western isles rather than over most northern parts like it will be for the next few days.

[Ali1977]

Latest NAO and AO tanking again, with no sign of them heading anywhere near neutral soon. Lets hope for further upgrades with the night and morning runs - personally I'm looking fwd to the clocks changing as the Pub run is way to late on a weekday night!!

[nick sussex]

Same old story! Any hint at northern blocking and the models drag out the drama. We're still waiting to see whether Greenland high pressure gets another dose of stage fright as it did yesterday.

It does look a bit messy overall and the ECM over recent winters has been a bit too keen to build pressure to the north in its later stages.

[The PIT]

Peeps remember a few days ago it was going to turn cold next week and that disappeared pretty quickly. FI is FI cold to warm is the normal swing.  At the moment there's an Indian summer to enjoy question is how long will it last. Also blocking isn't any good for the UK if it's in the wrong place or like the last few weeks a few months too early.

[Man With Beard]

Can't believe what I'm reading here. The development of the ECM for the UK depends upon heights splitting through two lows in the Atlantic and considering the ECMs record with heights - very dubious and especially with a stalling trough in the Atlantic. The UKMO phases the two lows and the GFS send more energy through Greenland at around T192. A million, million miles from getting any sort of cold feed in the next ten days.

But I will look on the positive. The PV had an ideal opportunity to build after the breakdown of the Scandi High - it hasn't. Whilst the Arctic High remains, the chance remains of things falling in our favour to get a flow from the N or NE. But we'll need a lot more than what we've seen in the models tonight to get there.

[carinthian]

On ‎24‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 09:58, carinthian said:

Mixed runs this morning from the main models. Timing is the main issue regarding how we access the colder flow with Arctic air mass mix. The GFS chart below interests me most of all from a cold perspective at 240 time span. Certainly a quicker route to a much colder flow than ECM but possibly more in line with UKMO thinking to turning much colder in the 7-10 day outlook period. Note the flow  of colder mass from Scandinavia towards Southern Britain with possible trough formation . Would eventually engage with warmer moist air from the developing circulation NE of the Azores as seen on this chart. All this in the longer term could produce some very wet conditions for Southern Britain with marginal snow boundary further north. Great chart viewing continues.

 C

Looking back at the above post and chart from yesterday, it would appear the latest ECM run is going along the same lines (ie) the first week of November to end with an undercut of cold air to the South of Britain to engage the warm tropical circulation NE  of the Azores. The Numericals keep coming up with this scenario, but just one of many at the moment, changing every 24 hours .So very little confidence of how we evolve to a cold snap but I would still say there is a fairly high confidence we will get one soon. This evening ECM if were to materialize by day10 would produce some very wet weather for the south possibly with marginal snow boundary. Hold on to your hats down south could turn interesting.

C

[damianslaw]

Unlikely to post over the next 10 days.. recent set of models all show strong height development over Greenland - 1050mb strength, it would thus become the dominant driving force regardless of weak cut off low development, the trend is clearly for an airstream from the north to take over, just that the models are suggesting it may take a day or two longer to get there than might be expected.

In the meantime, a very pleasant spell for the south in particular, the last 2 ends to October have been notably mild, and 2016 looks to carry on the same theme, however, things likely to change markedly as we enter November.

 

[fergieweather]

3 hours ago, Mucka said:

 and UKMO was the first to go with a flatter jet against the other output when the Greenland high was being programmed so it has beaten the other models both ways so far this Autumn. 

I think you are probably right about UKMO overdoing things here and GFS being over progressive (though perhaps correcting?) - either way they are back trending in the right direction. 

Ops Centre don't buy the way the UKMO-GM disrupts the trough earlier (versus other operational centres) across the mid-Atlantic, thereby amplifying the pattern in such a pronounced fashion as suggested by the 12z run. Perhaps instructively, the majority of MOGREPS members - at least for now - don't support it, either.  Time will tell.

[Essex snowman]

After fergieweathers update seem a let down for us coldies well at least for next couple of weeks :-(

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Essex snowman said:

After fergieweathers update seem a let down for us coldies well at least for next couple of weeks :-(

It's late October  the theme is still blocking  we are miles away from last year    I thought for a moment that was going to be the earliest winters over post . Many twists and turns to come over the next possibly 5 months 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

After fergieweathers update seem a let down for us coldies well at least for next couple of weeks :-(

Good, next 2 weeks too early for snow for most southern areas!

[Paul]

Can we keep this to the model output please - it's not a discussion solely about snow chances, and certainly isn't a discussion about that if it's not in context with the models. 

For more general chat, please head over here. 

 

[fergieweather]

44 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

After fergieweathers update seem a let down for us coldies well at least for next couple of weeks :-(

Not at all. 12z EC EPS continues to show a conspicuous descent to (possibly fairly marked) below average temperatures 1st week of Nov. Extended EPS clusters beyond T+240 offer various colder (mostly cyclonic) possibilities in the mix. Nothing can yet be discounted.

[SLEETY]

41 minutes ago, weirpig said:

It's late OctobTHE the theme is still threadng  we are miles away from last year    I thought for a moment that was going to be the earliest winters over post . Many twists and turns to come over the next possibly 5 months 

How is fergies post let down,does he mention tge Atlantic rolling back in,so much over reaction from people in this thtead Thread sometimes