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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

The ECM 0z for next Sunday with pressure rising to the NW and first signs of a tilt towards retrogression. Also Scandinavian snow cover develops as cold floods south over Northern Europe:

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Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Another essentially very dry GFS 0z this morning, certainly the signal remains for a pretty strong Greenland High as we move into November.

Perhaps a WQBO doesn't preclude strong heights at Higher latitudes afterall :D

The winters of 09 and 11 both saw +QBO and both went for it early so one cannot draw the conclusion that we should all leave the forum for the winter purely on that basis.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The winters of 09 and 11 both saw +QBO and both went for it early so one cannot draw the conclusion that we should all leave the forum for the winter purely on that basis.

Aye, it was tongue in cheek SB :)

I'm well aware there are numerous factors at play, far too complex for my tiny brain to comprehend though :D

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Looking at the anomaly charts the EC-GFS version continues to change emphasis between ridging having more effect and troughing. Indeed this morning the EC version has much as the chart above suggests posted by sb. NOAA on the other hand has, at least over the last two days, stayed with the idea of ridging being the most important player for the surface weather. In all my detailed checking over the years of these 3 anomaly charts, and at this time of the year, I cannot recall any such lengthy period with so much variance between hem. Even the NOAA outputs have been far from steady. No doubt much of it is due to the input from several tropical storms/hurricanes. Possibly also some kind of basic difference in the overall northern hemisphere upper air pattern as that which is giving such an unusually prolonged spell of blocking at 60N + in the main. Just why we have this feature this year I have no idea. Anyone out there with positive theories about this?

 

Edited by johnholmes
spelling/grammar
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The GEFs also show a flow from a northerly quadrant throughout week 2

gensnh-21-5-240.png   gensnh-21-5-300.png   gensnh-21-5-360.png

Interesting to note the the ensembles increase the influence of that Scandi trough over time suggesting an increasing risk of showers down north facing coasts to start but potentially affecting inland areas if disturbances crop up under low heights. 850 anomalies between 2 and 4 degrees below normal so in the wintry mix bracket in terms of precipitation at low levels, but good signs for Scottish resorts of a potentially lengthy spell of colder weather which should allow some significant snow to build up in the ski resorts. What a change from last year where the last 2 months of 2015 where southwesterlies dominated.

That is not to say that we couldn't pull in air cold enough for snow at low levels though, but it is a case of getting the general pattern in place with the acceptance of the time of year and hoping this can be sustained or repeated at a time of year where snow would be more likely, that said it won't be long with the arctic rapidly cooling now as we enter late Autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Slowly turning cooler as we move into November on the ECM ens

Reem1922.gifReem2162.gifReem2402.gif

No disrespect SS,But I would say colder not cooler 

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Just now, cheshire snow said:

No disrespect SS,But I would say colder not cooler 

C.S

 

Once those -5 850's get closer I would say colder

Maybe the 12z ens will get the colder air further south

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A note of caution for coldies from the Gem 00z, not enough retrogression means the high stays over the uk before sinking south and allowing the atlantic over the top.

GEMOPEU00_192_1.png

GEMOPEU00_216_1.png

GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Morning all. 

I'm just enjoying a week away in North Devon, Woolacombe, but can't stay away from the charts! But I have noticed a big shift to a new blocking high setting up somewhere around Greenland or Iceland, whilst I know there is caution with that as previous years overdue heights around Greenland this year has proven to be very different!

GFSOPEU00_252_1.png:cold:

GFSOPEU00_252_2.png:pardon:

And yes your right I did cherry pick but who doesn't! As far as I'm aware this is what most people wan't to see unless your against cold weather which can't be many people considering winter is the busiest time at netweather:bomb:

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

h850t850eu.png

As others have stated, the air to the North of us has been under a warm airflow for a while now. Combined with above average sea temperatures in the region, we are unlikely to see low lying snow in the south, at least from the the initial blast. This area will rapidly cool under the northerly flow, and i believe the sea temperatures would too if sustained long enough. 

hgt500-1000.png

I believe the best shot at widespread snow would be the winds veering to E/NE for a time,as shown above. We are seeing this on some runs, and i would of thought with such a short distance across the sea that the air travels, that the air would be cold enough for inland low lying areas.

The northerly flow does look as if it may more or less be sustained, in which case it would just be a matter of time before the air becomes cold enough for low lying snow in the south.

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Does anyone have a link they can provide to the extended ECM ensembles? There used to be a mean line graph people used but I haven't seen it in ages. VERY interesting charts at the moment. Still have a nagging feeling about it being two weeks too early, but let's wait and see! Plenty of time for changes, downgrades, and upgrades. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Does anyone have a link they can provide to the extended ECM ensembles? There used to be a mean line graph people used but I haven't seen it in ages. VERY interesting charts at the moment. Still have a nagging feeling about it being two weeks too early, but let's wait and see! Plenty of time for changes, downgrades, and upgrades. 

This one ?

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

We have had to remove a few off topic posts so just a reminder to keep your comments around the model outputs please. 

Thanks all.☺

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

00z

hgt500-1000.png

06z

hgt500-1000.png

The upgrades continue... far better warm air advection into the Canadian arctic on the 06z

As a result, the core of the cold air mass currently over the Canadian arctic is removed.

The core of the coldest air is situated over the northern tip of Canada on the 00z. The WAA fails to make inroads on the 00z

Whereas on the 06z, the cold core is completely removed, and is infact heading straight for the UK.

 

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Halloween Going to be a Tad chilly 06z Has Temperatures ranging from 0c over the Highlands to 7C in the south:cold:

C.S

Edit

Even colder 1st November daytime high of-1c over the Highlands to 4c in the south

Edited by cheshire snow
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