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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Can't post pictures, however the control run has an epic FI , and looking at the ENS has a fair bit of support.  If anything the FI GEFS average chart at T384 has the highest height anomaly around Greenland of any run over the last few weeks.  

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

The two posts following yours seem to see the complete opposite for FI. What charts drew you to that conclusion?

GFS 06z op is mild in the outer reaches:

gfsnh-0-372.png?6

 

I prefer just to look at the ensemble mean at that range :

gensnh-21-1-384.png.

,,.and its associated anomalies:

gensnh-21-5-384.png

 

(I see no harm in posting cherry-picked charts for a bit of fun though)

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The ens mean AO consistently trending back towards neutral during week 2 and v slightly positive on the eps whilst the gefs drifts back negative 1 to 2 with the gem ens slightly neg 

as ian mentioned earlier, it may pay to wait for a concensus on the TS 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well the Ecm 00z ensemble mean doesn't look much different to last night's 12z, it still looks blocked to the end of october and even into early november with high pressure stretching from the azores to the E / NE dominating..it looks largely settled but still a risk of scattered showers in the east until the end of this week but then fine with daytime temps close to average but with some chilly nights where skies clear leading to overnight mist / fog where winds are light. 

ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ens mean AO consistently trending back to neutral during week 2 and slightly positive on the eps whilst the gefs stays slightly negative. 

 

Hmm, not that good then (if you're a coldie). On the plus side, it's only 19th October.

Doesn't seem 2 minutes since someone posted that AO was "rising slightly, before tanking negative again".

Having said that, most members look to be staying in the negative area up until 1st Nov.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

 

*** EDIT - I just realised I was looking at NAO not AO ***
AO is here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 

Edited by Paul_1978
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Posted
  • Location: Mansfield Notts
  • Location: Mansfield Notts
7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Also....anyone for a late October BBQ going by the GEM run??

Rgem2401.gifRgem2402.gif

God I hope not. Enjoyed the last few days feeling cooler and leaves falling of the trees much more seasonal. If it turned mild again it would ruin the rest of October for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
47 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Hmm, not that good then (if you're a coldie). On the plus side, it's only 19th October.

Doesn't seem 2 minutes since someone posted that AO was "rising slightly, before tanking negative again".

Having said that, most members look to be staying in the negative area up until 1st Nov.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

 

*** EDIT - I just realised I was looking at NAO not AO ***
AO is here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 

 

Yes  there does tend to be over the coming 2 week period a slight rising  AO,  

However it still at this point doesnt seem to be going into positive terrority,  And with the Zonal winds  forecast to do strange things i really have no idea whats going to happen over the coming weeks and months.

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

On the face of it, the GEFS 6z mean paints a blocked largely settled picture, bar some showers for eastern areas until this weekend but then becoming particularly anticyclonic next week with high pressure becoming centred over the uk. The possible exception to this could be the far n / nw with some atlantic influence but for the majority, the generally benign pleasant conditions last into the end of october / early november, especially further south and west as the high drifts south westwards in response to lowering heights to the NE...so, a lot of fine useable autumn weather with some chilly nights and pleasant days..for the most part.

21_120_500mb.png

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21_336_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon all-

24 hours of change in the models hasnt worked to favourably for those enjoying the runs with a lot of polar blocking-

However again I believe we *MAY* be on the edge of another change over the next 24 hours -

all models have moved )at around 144 to take this low OVER the block flattening it

IMG_8703.PNG

See the 990 low in the central / Northern atlantic moving ENE on the GFS that flattens the high-

so this is what the model is predicting past that

notice its a small 985 low north of scandi at day 7

IMG_8704.PNG

 

ive a feeling by tomorrow that will going under the block instead of over - forcing more atlantic ridging that forecast at the moment....

JUST A HUNCH

S

Either way I struggle to see how the Atlantic gets in properly from here. Just a matter of time before heights build once again either to NW or NE

npsh500.png

 

In the mean time we see a ridge promoting pleasant days and chilly nights

h500slp.png

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
34 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon all-

24 hours of change in the models hasnt worked to favourably for those enjoying the runs with a lot of polar blocking-

However again I believe we *MAY* be on the edge of another change over the next 24 hours -

all models have moved )at around 144 to take this low OVER the block flattening it

See the 990 low in the central / Northern atlantic moving ENE on the GFS that flattens the high-

so this is what the model is predicting past that

notice its a small 985 low north of scandi at day 7

ive a feeling by tomorrow that will going under the block instead of over - forcing more atlantic ridging that forecast at the moment....

it will also sustain the eastery continental flow for longer & also remove that huge fat high pressure to the SW thats been modelled..

JUST A HUNCH

S

Pictures from original post deleted to avoid cluttering the thread. Steve, could you put some meat on the bones regarding that hunch of yours, what in the output is suggesting the change to you? I'd like to know as I'm always trying to increase my knowledge and it would be a good learning opportunity for many of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z GFS continues with the strong ridge and warm temps theme...

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39 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Pictures from original post deleted to avoid cluttering the thread. Steve, could you put some meat on the bones regarding that hunch of yours, what in the output is suggesting the change to you? I'd like to know as I'm always trying to increase my knowledge and it would be a good learning opportunity for many of us.

hi

we often see ( with scandi blocks ) the models in the 168 area want to move energy over the block ^^ as posted above-

with that you then get a very elongated high pressure from scandi to the SW of the UK like this ( below )with all the action of the jet on the north 

IMG_8705.PNG

 

however if the Scandi block is stronger than the model 'sees' it often disrupts the jet enough to amplify it & suddenly instead of everything going SW> NE it bends NW > SE

all of a sudden the models then start putting more energy underneath & hey presto a different outcome 

something like this -but with more going SE

This is the only GFS ensemble really showing more SE energy - notice it trying to close off a low over scotland

IMG_8706.PNG

Something to keep an eye on

 

S

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean is all about high pressure, and more high pressure all the way out to T+384 hours, it indicates a lot of settled pleasant weather, especially further south.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 12z mean is all about high pressure, and more high pressure all the way out to T+384 hours, it indicates a lot of settled pleasant weather, especially further south.:)

 

21_144_500mb.png

 

21_192_500mb.png

 

21_240_500mb.png

 

21_312_500mb.png

 

21_384_500mb.png

Suits me Frosty, I hate our standard wet and windy autumns.

Also there is a slow and subtle shift of blocking, transferring from East to West.

Edited by Mucka
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1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Pictures from original post deleted to avoid cluttering the thread. Steve, could you put some meat on the bones regarding that hunch of yours, what in the output is suggesting the change to you? I'd like to know as I'm always trying to increase my knowledge and it would be a good learning opportunity for many of us.

hi

now look at the ECM 168 12z & see the difference already -

notice the sliding low-

a shift towards the hunch but not fully yet-

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Nice day 10 on the ECM , high ridging up into Greenland, day 11 onwards would look great on this run.

IMG_3258.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Here is a crude first DJF composite from a few weeks ago given solar, ENSO, QBO... much refinement needed but interesting nonetheless who the prevalence of blocking continues to lag as Autumn goes on...

DJF Firstcomposite.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

As others have commented, always important to look at the trends shown by the mean ensembles, rather than focus on every new model run, especially when looking beyond the 144 hr timeframe. The ensembles continue to show a weak ineffectual atlantic right through the rest of the month and into November, with strong heights to the NE and also atlantic ridge development, and a strong trend for mid atlantic heights to transfer northwards towards Greenland - its been a theme for days now.. ECM backing up this trend. Don't be surprised to see tomorrows GFS runs showing something more akin to what they were early this week - how often does the GFS flip flop like this, all too often.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Gradually becoming more unsettled

 

I'm not too convinced there is much signs of the weather will become too much unsettled as we head into next week, still early days yet but I would not be surprised if high pressure does hang on somewhat going by some runs if albiet it will be more nearer our latitiude than a blocking high to the NE which all models agree on will release its grip on Scandinavia.

So it does look like temperatures may rise a little bit but perhaps staying dry and any rainfall threat will be to the more North Western areas.

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