Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[knocker]

Meanwhile quite a pleasant outlook in the more reliable medium term

[jvenge]

23 minutes ago, knocker said:

Meanwhile quite a pleasant outlook in the more reliable medium term

Knocker, can you advise where that one can be obtained from?

[knocker]

It's from Weatherbell and unfortunately behind a paywall jvenge.

 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

It's from Weatherbell and unfortunately behind a paywall 

netweather charts are better..and free!

Anyway, the next few days are going to feel increasingly chilly due to strengthening ESEly winds with max temps around 12c in the south and 9/11c further north..

Edited October 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

It's from Weatherbell and unfortunately behind a paywall jvenge.

 

Excuse the off topic mods, but do they have decent stuff for Europe there?

[knocker]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Excuse the off topic mods, but do they have decent stuff for Europe there?

Yes they do but whether any better than what you get with Netweather I wouldn't like to say.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

netweather charts are better..and free!

Anyway, the next few days are going to feel increasingly chilly due to strengthening ESEly winds with max temps around 12c in the south and 9/11c further north..

i'm sure we'll (south) have the same temps over Xmas period Frosty! not ESE wind of course, but instead WSW

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

i'm sure we'll (south) have the same temps over Xmas period Frosty! not ESE wind of course, but instead WSW

That's the default uk pattern isn't it, anyway I'm hopeful December as a whole will at least be seasonal with no repeat of that horror last time but it's still way too early to say.

 

Edited October 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

Perhaps it is just the  phraseology but I am not seeing your mobile pattern Knocker, at least nothing I would associate with mobility in reference to what we would consider zonal.

Perhaps you are talking about the pattern to our North but as far as our neck of the woods goes mobile is definitely not a term I would use, though certainly it will become more unsettled from time to time.

The way I see it;

We currently have Scandinavian blocking with an Atlantic trough and split flow.

That trough will bring some unsettled weather from time to time but it isn't mobile. It is stuck in the Atlantic still at day 7

 

It is true that from here that the block is slowly eroded and pushed East but the breakdown is a slow and messy process and it takes 8 to 10 days for the Atlantic trough to progress into Scandinavia!

From there we still have mid lat blocking and a trough to the North which looks as though it will dig South day 10+

Whether the blocking further diminishes from there or we have renewed amplification and an Atlantic ridge pushing toward Greenland or perhaps Scandinavia is obviously uncertain but looking at GFS ensembles out into la la land there is currently no signal for a flat jet and zonal conditions, on the contrary most members go for MLB to persist or even HLB to form.

That doesn't mean that things won't be more "mobile" than they have been for a time as the Atlantic attempts to breakdown the Scandinavian block but it is the type of mobility a Zimma frame affords to a very elderly person.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2016 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

A few off topic posts hidden, Please keep to sensible discussion in here, Thanks.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

I certainly wouldn't rule out a cold snap from the nw / n in the mid range which the Gfs / Gefs is hinting at since temperatures are set to fluctuate around the average and some night frosts are expected.

[Grimers]

The ECMWF model shows Monday to Thursday to be quite chilly as an area of high pressure stalls over the UK. Frosty nights are not out of the question especially in the valleys. However, there are hints of the Atlantic taking hold again on Friday.

    

The GFS model develops a low on Tuesday which strengthens as it moves NE from the Bay of Biscay giving gale force westerly winds across SW parts of the UK. Something to watch, possibly.

   

Edited October 13, 2016 by Grimers

[knocker]

23 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Perhaps it is just the  phraseology but I am not seeing your mobile pattern Knocker, at least nothing I would associate with mobility in reference to what we would consider zonal.

Perhaps you are talking about the pattern to our North but as far as our neck of the woods goes mobile is definitely not a term I would use, though certainly it will become more unsettled from time to time.

The way I see it;

We currently have Scandinavian blocking with an Atlantic trough and split flow.

That trough will bring some unsettled weather from time to time but it isn't mobile. It is stuck in the Atlantic still at day 7

 

It is true that from here that the block is slowly eroded and pushed East but the breakdown is a slow and messy process and it takes 8 to 10 days for the Atlantic trough to progress into Scandinavia!

From there we still have mid lat blocking and a trough to the North which looks as though it will dig South day 10+

Whether the blocking further diminishes from there or we have renewed amplification and an Atlantic ridge pushing toward Greenland or perhaps Scandinavia is obviously uncertain but looking at GFS ensembles out into la la land there is currently no signal for a flat jet and zonal conditions, on the contrary most members go for MLB to persist or even HLB to form.

That doesn't mean that things won't be more "mobile" than they have been for a time as the Atlantic attempts to breakdown the Scandinavian block but it is the type of mobility a Zimma frame affords to a very elderly person.

 

 

 

 

Okay Mucka accepted, bad terminology and clarity as I was talking about next week. Although in this case I was referring to whole upper air pattern shifting east but this was in the ext. period.

Quote

The EPS has been looking at rising heights to the west and briefly an upper NW flow for a couple of runs now but the pattern is quite mobile and the positive heights end up to the east by the end of the run with the wind backed to SW and temps a little above average.

 

Edited October 11, 2016 by knocker

[phil nw.]

I guess there's a case to be made for some Atlantic influence showing it's hand next week as Knocker has alluded to and some validity to the point that Mucca made questioning any mobility in the upcoming pattern.

A look at the T240hrs gefs stamps on the jet stream pattern across the Atlantic illustrates quite well that it's still expected to be weak and disjointed reflecting the amount of positive height anomalies nearby.

 

so still a slow start for any Atlantic train this Autumn so far.At the same time though modeling is indicating that pressure to our north will start to fall away as we go into week 2 so any blocking is looking more likely to become  mid-latitude as time goes on.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2016 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

Well this is interesting, the Gfs 12z shows high pressure building in across the uk and migrating to scandinavia through low res so we do it all again..plenty of high pressure in the mid range..nice!

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well this is interesting, the Gfs 12z shows high pressure building in across the uk and migrating to scandinavia through low res so we do it all again..plenty of high pressure in the mid range..nice!

 

Nice indeed, have you ever seen the like 850mb temp anomalies!

Edited October 11, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Nice indeed, have you ever seen the like 850mb temp anomalies!

Yes it's very pleasant knocker

[swfc]

looks like pretty normal autmn weather tbh.granted the nhp looks pv fragmented but nothing unusual

[Grimers]

The GFS model shows a strong low crossing the UK next Wednesday bringing some significant colder air and gale force NW winds across C and S parts of the UK.

 

Edited October 14, 2016 by Grimers

[knocker]

The GEFS anomaly this evening is still interested in Atlantic height rises in the mid term, at least for a while, as the trough drifts east.

[Frosty.]

50 minutes ago, Grimers said:

The GFS model shows a strong low crossing the UK next Wednesday bringing some significant colder air and gale force NW winds across central and southern parts of the UK.

Yes William the Gfs 12z operational looks chilly and unsettled for most of next week with even a risk of wintry ppn on the high ground in scotland before high pressure builds in from the west towards the end of next week which sets up a very pleasant anticyclonic further outlook.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

The ECM shows cool PM air for next Monday, Tuesday. Heights building in the Atlantic interestingly and note the strength of the high to the east 1040mb. Not much Atlantic drive yet although last year it started more the last 3rd of October.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Nice indeed, have you ever seen the like 850mb temp anomalies!

If we get the center of the high near us then i'd throw those charts. We're at the time of year when we can start to see inversions cold. 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday should less cold than of late with more of a southerly flow

Into next week high pressure tries to move in from the west but the low to the SE could take some moving

[Frosty.]

There is certainly support for an anticyclonic spell during late October from the GEFS 12z perturbations and the mean too.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Frosty.