Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[SMU]

Afternoon,

looking at the bigger picture I dont see any particular warm up other than a glancing blow from the SE -

Post that, more atlantic blocking signals some moderated cooler PM air moving SE- & out into the day 10 onwards plots - there is only one clear picture & that is the amount of polar blocking still developing & fracturing the vortex-

I have some interesting stats to show for November Months & HLBs/AO state - however I will save that for a few weeks down the line !

S

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z towards the end of next week shows a brief incursion of arctic air, especially across the north of the uk with some snow in upland parts of scotland and widespread frosts before high pressure builds in from the west and cuts it off with some very mild air arriving across the south later in the run..so, don't rule out a cold snap later next week or later this month. 

In the meantime, we keep the scandi high Easterly flow which strengthens through midweek with sunshine but with showers in the east, some heavy and thundery with hail as today and the driest and sunniest weather in the west but by friday it looks more unsettled with showery rain, especially across the n / e & sw later as a trough arrives leading us into an unsettled weekend with showers and longer spells of rain and some areas being windy while others have light and variable breezes but temperatures remaining cool for the time of year and where winds fall light and skies clear there would be some cold nights. Into next week the trough over the uk gradually fills in situ before a brief attack of colder air arrives from the nw / n.

Edited October 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

GLOSEA not supporting the EC with regards winter forecast, shame but still don't know if any will actually be correct at this stage I guess.

[Yarmy]

19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GLOSEA not supporting the EC with regards winter forecast, shame but still don't know if any will actually be correct at this stage I guess.

Not that one can glean much detail from a 3-month mean anomaly, but it looks ok to me?

Either way, it's probably not worth while fretting about such matters in early October.

[Grimers]

According to the GFS model, the ECMWF model and the UKMO model, on Thursday, for S parts of the UK, it's looking windy for S parts of the UK. Also, Saturday's low out in the Atlantic which in previous runs was making it's present felt across particularly S parts of the UK is now shown to be further SW, meaning that it's likely it will no longer impact the UK. However, what is obvious across all of these models, is the chilly E wind across the majority of the UK.

     

Edited October 14, 2016 by Grimers

[Mucka]

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

Not that one can glean much detail from a 3-month mean anomaly, but it looks ok to me?

Either way, it's probably not worth while fretting about such matters in early October.

 

As you say 3 month mean anomaly could have very different weather types balancing each other out but that looks like a zonal signal overall to me with positive height anomalies to the South.

It would look better upside down. 

.

Edited October 10, 2016 by Mucka

[phil nw.]

It does look like the approach of the Atlantic trough by the end of the week heralds a change as it moves in.

The Scandi high starts to decline and just gradually it looks like we will start to see more influence off the Atlantic through week 2.

The day 10 Means

It certainly doesn't yet like reverting to an all out zonal onslaught by any means with still some +ve height anomalies showing across a large swathe of the Polar region.However those anomalies are weakening and don't disguise the falling pressure to our north.

[jvenge]

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

Not that one can glean much detail from a 3-month mean anomaly, but it looks ok to me?

Either way, it's probably not worth while fretting about such matters in early October.

Do you have the 850 or even 2m one? 

[daz_4]

Ugh.

EDIT: I inserted wrong picture. well, I guess it looks better then last three winters

 

Edited October 10, 2016 by daz_4
wrong picture

[Frosty.]

6 hours ago, Grimers said:

If only this was in mid-Winter! We'd have reports of snow across East Anglia this morning.

Yes William, the synoptics for much of this week would be perfect for snow showers piling in from the north sea..hopefully it will return when it's winter.

[Grimers]

According to the GFS model, it's looking rather wet later on this week and into the start of next week!

  

Edited October 13, 2016 by Grimers

[Grimers]

22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes William, the synoptics for much of this week would be perfect for snow showers piling in from the north sea..hopefully it will return when it's winter.

Well, if the EC seasonal is to be correct, I think that's very likely! But, it's still too far away to even think about predicting snow let alone 24 hours in advance...

[jvenge]

32 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Ugh.

EDIT: I inserted wrong picture. well, I guess it looks better then last three winters

 

Doesn't look too bad at al. Near average.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, Grimers said:

According to the GFS model, it's looking rather wet later on this week and into the start of next week!

hope not William! best to use the high res charts though 

[Grimers]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hope not William! best to use the high res charts though 

Sure, I was using the Europe version to show more of the Atlantic.

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, Grimers said:

Well, if the EC seasonal is to be correct, I think that's very likely! But, it's still too far away to even think about predicting snow let alone 24 hours in advance...

It's encouraging, certainly compared to this time last year so there are more reasons to be positive of a better winter..for all the coldies, put it this way, I'm not expecting an epic fail of a winter this time!

[SLEETY]

I dont put much faith in these seasonal models tbh whatever they show,its too far ahead ,there just too many variables in the weather to predict with any accuracy so far in the distance.

[phil nw.]

A lot of recent posts are not really for this thread guys.

Speculation about Winter should be posted in the Winter thread

here

Current model outputs only in here please all,Thanks.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

I dont put much faith in these seasonal models tbh whatever they show,its too far ahead ,there just too many variables in the weather to predict with any accuracy so far in the distance.

Long range models have improved considerably though and I'm really interested in the possibilities of extensive northern blocking developing later this autumn and through the winter with a disrupted polar vortex which should bode well for the majority on here. .that is my dream.

Anyway, temps only reached 6/7c in Oslo today and that is the direction our air is coming from for most of this week so it's going to be chilly and showery in the east, drier and brighter in the west but unsettled for all by Fri / Sat.

[Paul]

Here's the latest synoptic anaylsis for the upcoming week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7699;sess=

[Grimers]

The GFS model, ECMWF model and the UKMO model runs all show a more organised low in the E Atlantic giving moderate S winds to W parts of the UK on Saturday. This a change from previous runs when they were showing a low further SE.

  

Edited October 16, 2016 by Grimers

[knocker]

The upper trough that is coming into play in the eastern Atlantic later this week is indicated on the GEFS 6-10 this evening. What isn't so obvious is that towards the end of this period the pattern markedly flattens with much less amplification, thus the Scandinavian block subsiding and the upper wind in the westerly quadrant. As me move into the ext period perhaps a hint of the Azores HP pushing north, something the EPS has been hinting at.

Edited October 10, 2016 by knocker

[Grimers]

On 10/10/2016 at 19:53, knocker said:

As me move into the ext period perhaps a hint of the Azores HP pushing north, something the EPS has been hinting at.

You know what that means? The E wind continues...

Edited October 14, 2016 by Grimers

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Grimers said:

You know what that means? The easterly flow continues...

Now you have lost me completely.

[Grimers]

On 10/10/2016 at 20:03, knocker said:

Now you have lost me completely.

Actually, that's a point. If the high pressure moves N, it could mean that low pressure could move in from the SW... But, I feel that the E wind will win in the current setup, but who knows.

Edited October 14, 2016 by Grimers