Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Grimers]

There's not much difference in the ECMWF model, UKMO model and GFS model this morning.

The ECMWF model shows a very weak low in the E Atlantic which doesn't make any impact on the UK.

However, the UKMO model shows a weak low over France meaning a moderate E breeze for all parts of the UK.

However, the GFS model shows a weak low over the English Channel meaning a moderate E breeze for N parts and a light E breeze for S parts of the UK.

So, to summarise, the ECMWF model shows a weak low to the W of Ireland, however the UKMO and GFS model shows a weak low to the S of the UK.

Edited October 14, 2016 by Grimers

[knocker]

The ecm is running with a similar idea as the GFS for the weekend but with TS coming into the mix what is going to evolve later is best left.

[Grimers]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm is running with a similar idea as the GFS for the weekend but with TS coming into the mix what is going to evolve later is best left.

Yes, looks like I may need to shift my attention towards this low rather than the nearly non-existent low on Friday.

[Frosty.]

It's going to be turning colder from the east this week, hopefully I will get the opportunity to write that a lot during the next 5 months! 

Temperatures through most of this week will be in the low teens celsius in the south but not even that further north.

A bit of defiance against knockers warm southwesterly zephyrs

Edited October 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Temperatures a tad chilly, though not too far from average, as 15c by day is around average for mid October. The run of chilly air looks like it may get shut off by the weekend, with temperatures slightly recovering, though with rainfall added to the mix. Longer term it will all be about how the tropical depressions interact with the jet in our neck of the woods.

[carinthian]

I think we best not look further than 120 hours. A rather complex upper low development around the British Isles by weekend. Note the Scandinavian high pressure still  place, helped by warmer air advected on its western flack from Eastern Europe and further south. Conversely, a arctic air mass gets established over much of Central and Northern Russia on its eastern flank.   Certainly not zonal charts with much of the British Isles remaining in the colder regime this week.  Us in the Eastern Alps getting a gradual warm up with the snow level rising over 2000m again.

 C 

Edited October 10, 2016 by carinthian

[legritter]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's going to be turning colder from the east this week, hopefully I will get the opportunity to write that a lot during the next 5 months! 

Temperatures through most of this week will be in the low teens celsius in the south but not even that further north.

Current charts still supporting some good fine dry weather this week ,but detail for this weekend still hard to pin down , And yes Frosty prepare yourself for a long period of writing and chart posting .

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, legritter said:

 Frosty prepare yourself for a long period of writing and chart posting .

I hope so legritter

Edited October 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's going to be turning colder from the east this week, hopefully I will get the opportunity to write that a lot during the next 5 months! 

Temperatures through most of this week will be in the low teens celsius in the south but not even that further north.

A bit of defiance against knockers warm southwesterly zephyrs

Well if the opportunity fails to arrive, as seems very likely, there is always the default gambit oft used by the cold Mafia, "the phantom easterly".

[Grimers]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well if the opportunity fails to arrive, as seems very likely

May I ask where you're getting this from? Anything could happen.

Edited October 10, 2016 by Grimers

[stodge]

Morning all

This morning's 00Z output seems to offer a plethora of evolutions and I don't see much in the way of clarity. Yes, we have our E'ly through this week with the breakdown coming from the south and south west over the weekend.

After that:

GEM 00Z OP at T+168:

A not untypical chart for autumn with a strong Atlantic LP sending a deepening secondary feature over Ireland giving them plenty of wind and rain. Calmer over the UK especially further east and not too bad at all.

ECM 00Z at the same time:

A showery and cool WSW'ly regime for us all - the key difference is the more powerful ex-tropical feature (on ECM) is moving more slowly and a ridge of HP has been able to establish between the LP areas which will doubtless cause huge changes to the evolution.

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

A slack area of LP over Ireland keeps a fairly showery regime for us all. Note GFS has the ex-tropical figure further back still in the Atlantic.

As is often the case at this time of year, the movement of ex-tropical systems is notoriously difficult for the models hence the uncertainty. I'm afraid those dreaming of retrogression will have to wait for another opportunity yet it's hard to see from these charts that we have a fully powered up Atlantic either. We are in a kind of meteorological no man's land waiting for the next signal.

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well if the opportunity fails to arrive, as seems very likely, there is always the default gambit oft used by the cold Mafia, "the phantom easterly".

The most important thing is it remains good natured banter and doesn't cross the line..I certainly don't mind that you have a mild preference, each to their own

As for the latest models, it's a chilly Easterly which dominates this week and becoming more unsettled across the uk by Friday.

[Essex snowman]

HI EVERYONE IM BACK AND EVERYONE KNOWS IM A COLDIE BIG TIME COLDIE LETS SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE RIDE HI FROSTY HOPE YOU HAD A GOOD SUMMER LETS KEEP THE BANTER FRIENDLY GUYS THIS FORUM IS BEST AROUND LETS KEEP IT THIS WAY 

[knocker]

Quite a marked signal this morning from the EPS to shunt and decline the Scandinavian HP east and to build the Azores north adjacent to the UK. This could raise the temps a little above above average if it comes to fruition.

Edited October 10, 2016 by knocker

[Grimers]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Quite a marked signal this morning from the EPS tp shunt and decline the Scandinavian HP east and to build the Azores north adjacent to the UK. This could raise the temps a little above above average if it comes to fruition.

Let's hope it becomes a big if.

[MP-R]

It would also be good if we could all try and punctuate our posts appropriately so as to be able to read a sentence from start to finish just once.

There looks to be a lot of divergence from the end of the week onwards but there's fair agreement on an easterly flow, at least up to that point, with conditions becoming more troughy thereafter. The GFS and ECM show what could happen if the trough from the south links up with lower heights to the north, with a move of low heights between the northwest and northeast, and a northwesterly flow ensuing. 

ECM:

GFS:

Either way, not much mild is showing on the horizon. At least up until the weekend, fairly average temperatures will be had across the board, with the exception of some places where night-time minima will be slightly below. Maxima of 13-16C and minima of 4-8C is nothing unusual for the time of year. Thereafter, depending on where low pressure sets up, a fall in daytime maxima and rise in nighttime minima could be on the cards.

All eyes on future runs as FI is only a few days ahead of where we are now.

 

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

HI EVERYONE IM BACK AND EVERYONE KNOWS IM A COLDIE BIG TIME COLDIE LETS SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE RIDE HI FROSTY HOPE YOU HAD A GOOD SUMMER LETS KEEP THE BANTER FRIENDLY GUYS THIS FORUM IS BEST AROUND LETS KEEP IT THIS WAY 

Welcome back mate

The models show a chilly autumn week ahead with an Ely flow, hopefully a little taste of things to come if we get lots of northern blocking this winter as some are indicating. 

Anyway the headline this week is sunny spells, showers in the east and becoming colder.

Edited October 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[jvenge]

GFS showing colder than average day time temperatures for my part of the World for the next 10 days or so. 

Hoping it isn't overly cold for my wedding on Nov 4th though! :-)

[Grimers]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Anyway the headline this week is sunny spells, showers in the east and becoming colder.

If only this was in mid-Winter! We'd have reports of snow across East Anglia this morning.

Edited October 10, 2016 by Grimers

[Coopsy]

26 minutes ago, MP-R said:

It would also be good if we could all try and punctuate our posts appropriately so as to be able to read a sentence from start to finish just once.

 

 

 

Nice thought but just remember some people do have dyslexia and other writing/reading disabilities. Just a thought before calling anyone out :-)

[Polar Maritime]

Just "Model Model Discussion" please, Thanks.

[MP-R]

27 minutes ago, Daryl Dixon said:

Nice thought but just remember some people do have dyslexia and other writing/reading disabilities. Just a thought before calling anyone out :-)

Acknowledged. I'm not calling out anyone in particular and I have nothing against people with reading/writing disabilities. Just saying, a few full stops and commas can make all the difference and actually make reading easier. Feel free to PM me.

[Man With Beard]

My ideas for today - I write with sunny skies above, slightly chilly but not overly so. The easterly has indeed lowered our temperatures, as I expected, but has also been a little sunnier and less windy than I'd originally thought, which means it still doesn't feel too bad out and about. 

Mid-term - still uncertainty over the exact placement of the low for this weekend, but as the ensembles seem to agree on a position slightly to the west of the UK, I'm prepared to go with that.

  

So some wet weather but also a bit warmer with ourselves being generally on the side of the southerly winds. I imagine some decent weather if fronts clear at any time, with temperatures perhaps slightly higher than they are now. However, look to the east - the Scandi High has burst its bubble to the south. So the slow drain on heights to the east will commence - probably meaning we will resort back to something with a more westerly postage stamp on. The ECM mean at T240 demonstrates this probability. Also note that the polar vortex is now predicted to form on both sides of the arctic - lessening chances of a colder outbreak for the UK later on in the month - though also far away from the UK to have little impact in terms of storms.

A few GEFS members manage to maintain a minor easterly into the UK, but only through low heights towards Iberia and not through a strong Scandi High.

So, in spite of a puny PM attempt by GFS 06Z just now, the wise money is on a return to average or slightly above average temperatures for the second half of the month, with changeable spells - but with the vortex still well out of the way, not zonal domination - yet. A colder end to the month looks off the cards for now, but it's way off yet, so who knows.

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, Essex snowman said:

HI EVERYONE IM BACK AND EVERYONE KNOWS IM A COLDIE BIG TIME COLDIE LETS SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE RIDE HI FROSTY HOPE YOU HAD A GOOD SUMMER LETS KEEP THE BANTER FRIENDLY GUYS THIS FORUM IS BEST AROUND LETS KEEP IT THIS WAY 

Yes hi,time to vome

 

1 hour ago, Essex snowman said:

HI EVERYONE IM BACK AND EVERYONE KNOWS IM A COLDIE BIG TIME COLDIE LETS SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE RIDE HI FROSTY HOPE YOU HAD A GOOD SUMMER LETS KEEP THE BANTER FRIENDLY GUYS THIS FORUM IS BEST AROUND LETS KEEP IT THIS WAY 

Hi ,yes it time to login in again  Looking very intresting already,could be a classic winter coming up

[Polar Maritime]

Just to remind folks there is a 'Winter Hopes/Thoughts" thread already open.