Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Mucka]

Retrogression very much the theme this morning with GEM and GFS creating huge Atlantic blocks by day 10.

 

The sort of chart that would have the forum in meltoown in Winter, we can only hope this synoptic will reappear when it matters.

[knocker]

Next couple of days sees the easterly wind back NE. Variable cloud but mainly dry with increasing risk of showers along the east coast, Fairly cool especially along the latter.

The GFS this morning for the next ten days.

By 00z Tuesday the upper low is centred over Germany with the surface feature in the southern N. sea impacting the SE.

As the week progresses the upper low continues to be 'fed' by energy shooting out of Canada running south of the strong high pressure to the NW thus setting up what can only be termed a reversal to the normal N/S split as the upper flow remains in the easterly quadrant.

By the weekend this scenario takes a sudden change with an upper trough developing over Scandinavia dragging some quite cold air down from the north and some quite inclement conditions if,of course, it veriried which hopefully it won't

Edited October 7, 2016 by knocker

[MR EXTREMES]

well well we got the retrogression and iceland heights been showing its hand alot and southerly diving lower heights and lower heights dropping down into scandi with northern and eastern europe starting to really cool down well.

the charts are beautiful but just a little to soon for anything especially wintry although very seasonal.

but this certainly does not rule out some wintry weather in the north on higher ground i await the ecm with interest noticed that the iceland heights do build just about into a decent timeframe.

  would like to say completely blocked zonal train 09/10 we had northerlies from a similar block that then stayed from northerly to northeasterly and easterly due to similar type of blocking the charts above would suggest look north north east or east because not seeing atlantic zonal.

 

and yesterdays gefs 

 

Edited October 7, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[MR EXTREMES]

38 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Retrogression very much the theme this morning with GEM and GFS creating huge Atlantic blocks by day 10.

 

The sort of chart that would have the forum in meltoown in Winter, we can only hope this synoptic will reappear when it matters.

its a beautiful set of charts and they been popping out very regular and yes even mid late november the cold crew would be working netweather servers to breaking point.

[knocker]

And the GEFS anomaly. It perhaps should be mentioned it quite rapidly de-amplifies thereafter and with the rapid decline of the Atlantic HP the upper flow backs westerly.

Edited October 7, 2016 by knocker

[MR EXTREMES]

this retrogression is only going in one direction from the ecm neg tilted low diving se heights going nw greenland good timeframe to 

and the gem well what can i say beautiful

Edited October 7, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

this retrogression is only going in one direction from the ecm neg tilted low diving se heights going nw greenland good timeframe to 

and the gem well what can i say beautiful

You're right, that gem chart in particular is a thing of beauty and I'm sure the majority on netweather will agree!

[MR EXTREMES]

continued retrogression at 192 on the ecm ,

in line with the gfs gefs and to a degree the gem you can see the lower heights pushing from the north east into scandi location very weak atlantic to.

thats one hell of a cool down for europe nearly spat me coffee everywhere oh i do love autumn winter.

so most of the models indicate cool cold well into and perhaps beyond fi and settled to any calm clear conditions would very much aid in frost so we keep the fresh clear air love it. 

and the last chart well looks likely a disrupted displaced polar vortex...... to be continued

Edited October 7, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[Matthew.]

11 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

continued retrogression at 192 on the ecm ,

in line with the gfs gefs and to a degree the gem you can see the lower heights pushing from the north east into scandi location very weak atlantic to.

Yes the ECM showing high pressure around the UK. The blocking saying "run along little boy" to the Atlantic! The BCC good so far.

[terrier]

Some nice looking charts this morning. Especially the gem. But if only it was 6 weeks later into the season. Please correct me if I'm wrong but didn't we see a lot of blocking last October.? And we all know how last winter turned out. Just something to bear in mind I suppose. 

[cheshire snow]

Just now, terrier said:

Some nice looking charts this morning. Especially the gem. But if only it was 6 weeks later into the season. Please correct me if I'm wrong but didn't we see a lot of blocking last October.? And we all know how last winter turned out. Just something to bear in mind I suppose. 

Quite agree beautiful winter charts this morning,have to agree terrier all a bit early for me if we were 5 weeks further on I think I may have wet myself by now.

C.S

[Frosty.]

39 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

this retrogression is only going in one direction from the ecm neg tilted low diving se heights going nw greenland good timeframe to 

and the gem well what can i say beautiful

 

The Gem 00z would go on to produce october snow and not just across northern hills, I think it's several years since that occurred and I hope something like it happens because that is classic retrogression, like one of those archive charts from years gone by!. Lovely stuff.

[MR EXTREMES]

12 minutes ago, terrier said:

Some nice looking charts this morning. Especially the gem. But if only it was 6 weeks later into the season. Please correct me if I'm wrong but didn't we see a lot of blocking last October.? And we all know how last winter turned out. Just something to bear in mind I suppose. 

absolutely correct there many many times we been skipping down the garden path in joy when the whole pattern just dies a horrible death then we spend 4 months hoping the beautiful charts happen.

but the reason im upbeat is because we already have a sustained pattern in place.

i dont agree with knocker,

sorry knocker but one gefs model run suggesting a collapse of heights in the manner you suggest just does not really fit what other models show.

id be very interested to see what the mighty glosea model thinks or should i say calculates lol

but very quiet october so far.

Edited October 7, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[joggs]

Yes,as others have said,a big Cooldown in Europe if the charts come to fruition.

Can only be a plus from a coldies pov.Also the lack of the PV,jet is intriguing in itself tbh,although one would expect it to organise itself over the next month or so.

I do agree on Jh comment re,the NOW synoptics having little bearing winter(until proven otherwise)but a cool down of scandi,eu can only help imo.

But here's to a different start to this season and long may it continue for me lol.

Edited October 7, 2016 by joggs

[knocker]

The ecm also retrogresses the whole pattern but does not bring the upper trough as far west. Ergo still a cool NW/N flow but not so much inclement weather. In the light  of these recent pattern developments I'm having to reassess my atheism and perhaps thinking there is a god in the light of the timing of this pattern evolution and that we will be back in westerly zephyrs when it really matters.

Edited October 7, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

 and that we will be back in westerly zephyrs when it really matters.

 

If there is a God he..or she will show sympathy for coldies and not inflict another mild mush fest. I'm loving these charts, especially the Gem and sincerely hope it verifies!

Edited October 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

As many have mentioned, if these charts were mid Nov onwards we'd be staring at a potential "big freeze". What will be happening is the Siberian and scandanavian snow cover will be developing well, and this setup must be playing havoc with the drivers that give us standard winter weather patterns !! The Met office did say early winter could be cold - let's hope something towards 2010 ( although they weren't signalling that)

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

 

[sundog]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

. In the light  of these recent pattern developments I'm having to reassess my atheism and perhaps thinking there is a god in the light of the timing of this pattern evolution and that we will be back in westerly zephyrs when it really matters.

 

If we get a cold winter you will hardly be in a position to be complaining after the last few winters. As for god if there is one, well he has been looking after you enough these recent winters.  

[mb018538]

42 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

 

I'd agree with that - they will always eventually trend back towards the normal pattern, whether it's right or not. Time will of course tell, but some very unusual weather patterns are around at the moment.

[Man With Beard]

I keep reading "another 6 weeks" - sure, mid-November is probably the time when we can get really serious about s*** but short memories guys, just 8 years ago, October 29th, many places saw lying snow from this even in the south:

and the build-up to that saw nothing like the cool-down we could be facing mid-month here. It's a fool's game looking too far ahead but we can at least say, at this point, we are "in the game" for a late October cold blast. Ensembles are always useful to me when there is an obvious cluster that has deviated highly from the norm. We are nearly - not quite - at that place on the GEFS in its D10-D16. There are a significant number of runs (more than half at T300) that emphasise an eastern based vortex with little vortex activity towards Greenland and Canada. That's an open door for winds to feed down from the Arctic towards the UK. The following ensemble is not untypical of some of the runs coming out:

and by that time, enough cold to our north for snow to survive the sea-modification process:

So the possibility definitely exists here.

Please note, I'm not intending to ramp here. Of course, getting snow to the UK is an absolute minefield, so this situation is just on my "watch" list for now. The odds are always against seeing something happening on the ground at this range even in mid-winter, so it probably won't result in snow for the UK within October. But my interest in weather is partly in the boundaries of possibility. I really enjoyed this summer for that reason, with 34C being achieved in three different months, which I don't think has happened before. And with regards October, I'm not sure we've seen a major October freeze-up in the UK before, but I believe it is possible, and the kind of synoptics we're seeing now are exactly what would be needed, and although I prefer warmth in October I also wouldn't mind seeing the most extreme cold possibility in my lifetime. Sorry, I know some on here prefer looking for the most likely outcome (which in this case is cool but not to the extreme), but this is just the way I like to look at things :)

 

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

I'd agree with that - they will always eventually trend back towards the normal pattern, whether it's right or not. Time will of course tell, but some very unusual weather patterns are around at the moment.

00z EC clusters generally lean similarly towards end of Oct (towards a resumption of mobility), much as GloSea5 has done for a while now. However, any such transition - whenever it materialises - will doubtless prove complex/messy. It'll thus be interesting to see if any further hint of blocking for November appears in tomorrow's EC Seasonal update, or whether it switches to something more mobile/zonal.

[knocker]

Yes this morning's EPS is looking at backing the upper flow in the ext period to SW with temps around average as the upper trough retreats to eastern Europe.

[SMU]

43 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

00z EC clusters generally lean similarly towards end of Oct (towards a resumption of mobility), much as GloSea5 has done for a while now. However, any such transition - whenever it materialises - will doubtless prove complex/messy. It'll thus be interesting to see if any further hint of blocking for November appears in tomorrow's EC Seasonal update, or whether it switches to something more mobile/zonal.

I would hazard a guess that based on octobers signal there will be more suggestion of blocking into November- 

The signals of a return to mobility are on the outskirts of model accuracy & more in tune with the way the models blend in climatology as opposed to anything significant..

All eyes on the AO as thats the most significant feature of autumn so far... Record breaking negative..

Edited October 7, 2016 by Steve Murr

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I would hazard a guess that based on octobers signal there will be more suggestion of blocking into November- 

The signals of a return to mobility are on the outskirts of model accuracy & more in tune with the way the models blend in climatology as opposed to anything significant..

All eyes on the AO as thats the most significant feature of autumn so far... Record breaking negative..

I am expecting the.opposite. I think November will be very unsettled. Not especially mild but not cold either. Little or no blocking and very mobile. The blocking will re appear in Dec though :-)