Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Joseph Watts]

A slight wobble from the ECM this evening, seems the Atlantic is trying to collapse the Scandy High (192hrs).

 

 

Wow, what a difference at 240hrs between 0z and 12z

 

Edited October 3, 2016 by Joseph Watts

[bluearmy]

That ECM run would have delivered a real roller coaster of emotions on here in a couple months time. 

Lets hope the background patterns are similar come winter proper. 

Edited October 3, 2016 by bluearmy

[blizzard81]

18 minutes ago, Joseph Watts said:

A slight wobble from the ECM this evening, seems the Atlantic is trying to collapse the Scandy High (192hrs).

 

 

Wow, what a difference at 240hrs between 0z and 12z

 

1035 high or 970 low, take your pick. Crazy difference.

[Matthew.]

Yes the ECM is remarkable to earlier. Something for everyone.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes the ECM is remarkable to earlier. Something for everyone.

Was really hoping this morning's run was bang on the money - I love blocked October's as opposed to wet and windy ones.

[doctor32]

42 minutes ago, Joseph Watts said:

A slight wobble from the ECM this evening, seems the Atlantic is trying to collapse the Scandy High (192hrs).

 

 

Wow, what a difference at 240hrs between 0z and 12z

 

If that was 24hrs out i would be very concerned, however 240hrs out one should expect big changes and come next run it will chance to be quite different again. Thats not saying that its not an impressive difference as it very much is.

[Paul_1978]

Ah the old ECM 240. If I had £1 for everytime a 240 chart had been dissected on here..... 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Ah the old ECM 240. If I had £1 for everytime a 240 chart had been dissected on here..... 

I think that most would admit that the differences between the two charts are staggering. Not just in our neck of the woods either. For example, the 1030 high just off New Foundland on the 00z versus the 985 low on the 12z. Everything just seems to be the opposite when you compare the two charts. Incredible, even if it is 10 days out.

[Weather-history]

17 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

If that was 24hrs out i would be very concerned, however 240hrs out one should expect big changes and come next run it will chance to be quite different again. Thats not saying that its not an impressive difference as it very much is.

If it were 24hrs out, I would scrap the model completely! 

[knocker]

It has been apparent for a while that the transition from HP dominance at the beginning of next week is causing a slight head ache, Looking at tonight's anomalies doesn't help that much. They are all on the same playing field but the problem is only slight differences with the upper pattern impacts quite considerable on the surface analysis vis orientation of the low and high pressure areas.

Essentially they all agree with HP N. Scandinavia and some NE ridging in the western Atlantic with two upper lows/troughs, one to the SW and the other to the SE. The percentage play at the moment is for the two low pressure areas to coalesce  and swing slowly north introducing cool unsettled weather from the east into England with the north remaining  under the influence of the HP. As the low pressure declines as the week progresses then the upper flow will veer westerly but I wouldn't bet the bank on that.

[knocker]

Today

Continuing dry but the SE wind freshening a tad and probably more cloud than yesterday particularly in the west so feeling a trifle cool where this applies,

This morning's GFS for the next week.

The rest of this week remaining dry but the SE wind becoming fresher and backing easterly as the Scandinavian HP drifts NNE and the upper low to the SE north.

Thus we arrive once again to the position of how the breakdown is going to pan out. The 500mb chart on Sunday shows the HP cell centered Northern Scandinavia with the upper low to the east over northern Germany but with a general area of low pressure over Europe. So the likelihood is, depending where the surface low sets up shop for unsettled weather to encroach from the south and east ( and later the south west) at the beginning of next week. Temps probably around average with  the colder air tending to be over Europe. I don't think I'll be betting the farm on the detail at this stage but I suspect we might be in the right ball park. On the other hand I could be completely wrong of course.

And eventually we get back to the Atlantic swinging by and saying hello.

Edited October 4, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

And the ecm is cooking with gas

[mb018538]

ECM looks quite unsettled for Eastern areas with a small low pressure developing. A reversal from weeks gone by, with things looking better in the N/W rather than the S/E after the end of this week.

[Yarmy]

12 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

1035 high or 970 low, take your pick. Crazy difference.

And back to high pressure this morning:

 

It's a curious feature of the operational models that despite the ECM being the undisputed leader in the short to medium range, it falls behind in the later stages:

 

 

 

[MP-R]

14 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Well I for one will enjoy the Scandy high in all its glory! Of course the majority would like to see this beast in Dec/Jan or Feb but this setup should promote some lovely walking weather and some proper 'pea soup' evenings as we head through the next 10 days, would love to see some misty/foggy conditions as the high eventually moves over or close to the British Isles.

A weather enthusiast can appreciate such rare beasts any time of the year...:)

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Absolutely! Hopefully this will be a precursor for things to come. Mist/fog will of course likely last all day come November/December and lead to some ice days which are always very atmospheric.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

 

 

Edited October 4, 2016 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[carinthian]

nMorning all. Picked out this chart this morning as the one of interest, all with in a reliable time span.  Nice block developing with a possible Ac feed source in the further outlook. The Stratosphere cooling expected at this time of the year at the Pole is still not pronounced as would be expected. This combined with low ice volume is right for a disturbed Polar Vortex to develop ( continental positioning rather than poleward ) We will see, but exciting developments for lovers of the cold .

 C

 

Edited October 4, 2016 by carinthian

[bluearmy]

As Ian has tweeted, little sign of any above av temps for October on the latest EC 46

Same is true for November though without any visibility of clustering, I am minded to be fairly apathetic about mean anomolys, uppers and and heights for the period days 30/46. 

 

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

And back to high pressure this morning:

 

It's a curious feature of the operational models that despite the ECM being the undisputed leader in the short to medium range, it falls behind in the later stages:

 

 

 

Yes, ECM reverts back to the blocked scenario. I must admit that post 168hrs, the ECM does not seem to be as accurate as it was some years ago.

[Man With Beard]

A fascinating ECM D10 mean

Low pressure pushing from the WNW to ESE well to our south. High pressure 1025mb over Scandi - a fairly decent mean high for a D10 chart.

The GEFS wants to bring the Atlantic back in after mid-month but I'm taking that with a pinch of salt, as the Scandi High has proved pretty resilient in the past two months and has gained in strength as time has gone on.

The question for me will be whether low pressure gets far enough into Europe to prevent a Mediterranean influence on eastern Europe. If it does, then central/eastern Europe will just continue to cool, cool, cool.

Dare I mention the s-word? You can easily get s*** through northern Germany and into Poland by late October if the synoptics are right. If Scandi High proves even more resilient that the charts currently suggest, and lows keep getting directed into France rather than us, I absolutely wouldn't rule out the s-word from being an issue for the UK in just 4 weeks time, too. 

[knocker]

The EPS has the upper low tracking slowly NW to be over the southern UK by midweek. The surface feature will hang around probably moving west so that after a brief hiccup the UK will be back into a SE flow albeit from a different surface analysis with he HP to the NW. Temps still below average but the pattern is set to flatten out with the upper flow back in a westerly quadrant.  i notice the seasonal fantasizing is well under way.

Edited October 4, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

The EPS has the upper low tracking slowly NW to be over the southern UK by midweek. The surface feature will hang around probably moving west so that after a brief hiccup the UK will be back into a SE flow albeit from a different surface analysis with he HP to the NW. Temps still below average but the pattern is set to flatten out with the upper flow back in a westerly quadrant.  i notice the seasonal fantasizing is well under way.

Yes, fantasising indeed - but in response to many posts stating "If only it were December/January/February", I thought I'd make the point - if the pattern continues, the continent can do nothing but cool, and eventually this can - very hypothetically - lead to a situation where s*** possibilities exist much earlier than would usually be expected.

Chances?? Not high but higher than usual because that Scandi High looks likes it's up for a fight, to me.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes, fantasising indeed - but in response to many posts stating "If only it were December/January/February", I thought I'd make the point - if the pattern continues, the continent can do nothing but cool, and eventually this can - very hypothetically - lead to a situation where s*** possibilities exist much earlier than would usually be expected.

Chances?? Not high but higher than usual because that Scandi High looks likes it's up for a fight, to me.

Just to clarify MWB I wasn't pointing the finger specifically at you although of course you are a paid up member of the cold coven.

[Gael_Force]

22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes, fantasising indeed - but in response to many posts stating "If only it were December/January/February", I thought I'd make the point - if the pattern continues, the continent can do nothing but cool, and eventually this can - very hypothetically - lead to a situation where s*** possibilities exist much earlier than would usually be expected.

Chances?? Not high but higher than usual because that Scandi High looks likes it's up for a fight, to me.

If I remember rightly it snowed mid October in several European countries (including Belgium) last year. A similar situation with a very cold upper pool swinging west round a Scandinavian high. 

It wasn't a great indicator for what was to come ....maybe this attempt will have a better prognosis for later in the year.

 

Edited October 4, 2016 by Gael_Force

[DR(S)NO]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

A fascinating ECM D10 mean

Low pressure pushing from the WNW to ESE well to our south. High pressure 1025mb over Scandi - a fairly decent mean high for a D10 chart.

The GEFS wants to bring the Atlantic back in after mid-month but I'm taking that with a pinch of salt, as the Scandi High has proved pretty resilient in the past two months and has gained in strength as time has gone on.

The question for me will be whether low pressure gets far enough into Europe to prevent a Mediterranean influence on eastern Europe. If it does, then central/eastern Europe will just continue to cool, cool, cool.

Dare I mention the s-word? You can easily get s*** through northern Germany and into Poland by late October if the synoptics are right. If Scandi High proves even more resilient that the charts currently suggest, and lows keep getting directed into France rather than us, I absolutely wouldn't rule out the s-word from being an issue for the UK in just 4 weeks time, too. 

This would then tie in with all the newspaper articles , in the last week or so,that warned of UK snow in the next 6 weeks. This was then to lead to at least 6 weeks of heavy snowfall.

So there must be every chance possible that this could happen... I read it in at least 3 papers

Oh, was just going a wee bit crazy there at the very thought of the s-word.. Sorry