Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[knocker]

This evening's det runs continue to highlight the uncertainties vis the evolution after this week. The GFs and ecm are both going for an unsettled breakdown but by different routes. The ecm is developing the the Upper low to the south east, with strong ridging to the west of the UK This low could well be part of the problem, And with this comes some quite chilly air.

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

I agree, it's interesting but will have no bearing on the upcoming winter..and despite the dream wintry synoptics there is no hint from the met office of any unseasonably cool weather this month in their extended outlook, they indicate temps will be a little above average.

I see where your coming from Frosty it is possible we could be in with this type of weather for the next 5 months. The autumn/winter of 62/63 was a long cold anticyclonic period. Anything is possible

[Cloud 10]

The pub run delivers at 384 hrs.

 

[Daniel*]

46 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

The pub run delivers at 384 hrs.

 

Being pedantic not quite with the UK wedged in between 2 airmasses. There we have our monster -NAO who knows the model(s) may be readily picking up on this, they've done it before long out.  

 

[Mucka]

Yup, if GFS ensembles are to be believed there should be a noticeable cool down somewhere around mid month, especially for central Northern Europe.

Right or wrong it would make exciting model viewing if we were several weeks further into the season.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Mucka

[knocker]

This morning the GFS has the UK under the umbrella of the high pressure resulting in a SE flow backing easterly as the week progresses and the HP slips NE. Ergo a dry week, might just see some drizzle in the far SW late tomorrow from a shallow low, and probably cooling down during the week and certainly some quite cool nights before picking up in the sunshine.

Now the breakdown and when and how this will occur. The GFS is still looking at developing the cut off upper  low to the SW early next week but not directly impacting the UK immediately. Rather surface low pressure developing to the east associated with upper low moving north into northern Germany which is along the lines the ecm was pushing last night. These two upper lows then phase together leaving a general low pressure area to the SW-SE of the UK and HP to the north. Resulting, for a pleasant change, with he drier and more settled weather being in the north leaving the south unsettled.

Edited October 3, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

And just to further confuse matters the ecm this morning is developing the new area of HP much more adjacent to the UK thus relegating the upper lows further south and thus not instigating a breakdown per se. Having said that there would be a strong easterly component to the wind in the south. A good job it's not the middle of winter. So at the moment the key would appear to be the evolution of the upper lows in conjunction with the developing HP. Knife edge.

Edited October 3, 2016 by knocker

[Matthew.]

The ECM would have 1040mb reach the Uk. That's 5mb off the record.

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The ECM would have 1040mb reach the Uk. That's 5mb off the record.

Well I have to ask Matthew, what record would that be?

[Matthew.]

Sorry should have clarified. The October highest pressure mb reading( not all time) which started in 1910 I think. From the met office extreme library page

[phil nw.]

It is not unusual to see October blocking,especially early on the month.A look at the archives will show many examples of that.The Arctic has only just started it,s cool down and the polar vortex is still developing.

Often by November the pattern changes towards a more mobile one as the Atlantic jet strengthens.

Having said that though where the block is situated over Scandinavia does drive a quick and extensive cool down across many areas of northern and central Europe and Russia.

Nothing too dramatic for the UK yet but that east wind will start to feel more nippy the further into the month we go.

 

[carinthian]

Morning all . Not very often do you get a chart like that in October ( although now relatively rare in recent winters !) Extensive boundary of cold air mass down to lower layers.  So a rare feature here. Will it last into a longer time span?. I suppose all depends whether the -NAO continues it present grip or the Altantic erodes its influence. However, I think a sinking from the North looks unlikely, possibly a erosion from the south eventually. Interesting reading on some of the German/ Austrian forums of a early winter Continental Cold Vortex formationt prior to the development of the all influencing Polar Vortex power base. A rare beast indeed . As always time will tell, but not without some excitement from super cold weather fans.

 C

[summer blizzard]

Cool surface air pouring into western Russia and northern Europe. A positive sign for those wanting to see frost and the like.

[knocker]

The EPS mean anomalies do not follow the det. and build HP over the UK. Essentially they develop the low pressure to the south and HP to the north and very slowly swing the whole pattern anticlockwise until eventually the pattern weakens and a zonal westerly ensues. Prior to that unsettled and cool weather occurs in the south with an easterly component. It should be emphasized that this is a long way from a done deal

Edited October 3, 2016 by knocker

[Paul_1978]

11 hours ago, Mucka said:

Yup, if GFS ensembles are to be believed there should be a noticeable cool down somewhere around mid month, especially for central Northern Europe.

Right or wrong it would make exciting model viewing if we were several weeks further into the season.

Agreed - what a GFS run this morning! If only it was Dec/Jan/Feb - this place would be in meltdown - northern blocking and then LP tracking to the south in the latter stages.

[mountain shadow]

Ok, it's FI, but that is surely a rare chart for mid October?....

Is that a Canadian warming?

[Faronstream]

One of the strongest high pressure for the last 10 years i belive in N Europé is predicted on wednesday, almost 1055hpa

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Faronstream said:

One of the strongest high pressure for the last 10 years i belive in N Europé is predicted on wednesday, almost 1055hpa

Will I be able to hear Ode to Joy on my crystal-set?

[Matthew.]

9 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

One of the strongest high pressure for the last 10 years i belive in N Europé is predicted on wednesday, almost 1055hpa

Wow! I thought last Octobers was strong but thats something else. That might test a few barometers.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[knocker]

Very good to get this out of the way now ready for the Atlantic in December. Quite some WAA into the Arctic courtesy Aleution low

[Yarmy]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Very good to get this out of the way now ready for the Atlantic in December. Quite some WAA into the Arctic courtesy Aleution low

Imagine the scenes if the OPI were still running (and actually meant anything).

Re: Matthew's post about record October HP in the UK, according to my extensive research (googled it), 1045.6 was reached in Dyce on Halloween 1956. This chap here:

 

[ICETAB]

13 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:

The pub run delivers at 384 hrs.

 

This morning 6z has a similar evolution at the end, you never know perhaps it's a new trend.

 

 

Edited October 3, 2016 by ICETAB

[phil nw.]

Looking at the 06Z gefs pressure ensembles for Iceland and the majority go with high pressure building up there through the next 2 weeks.

The evolution shown in the mean of the Scandi.block transfering west and allowing colder air to infiltrate south west down over Scandinavia and into Europe underlined by those.

To early yet for us see anything notably cold but daytime temperatures would likely be down into single figures later on for many places.The east wind would start to feel quite chilly.The dry theme continues as well nationwide.

Edited October 3, 2016 by phil nw.

[SMU]

The london 850s show a trend that has been missing from the Uk for some considerable time...

 

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[northwestsnow]

Well I for one will enjoy the Scandy high in all its glory! Of course the majority would like to see this beast in Dec/Jan or Feb but this setup should promote some lovely walking weather and some proper 'pea soup' evenings as we head through the next 10 days, would love to see some misty/foggy conditions as the high eventually moves over or close to the British Isles.

A weather enthusiast can appreciate such rare beasts any time of the year...:)

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Edited October 3, 2016 by northwestsnow