Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

According to the latest models its a very changeable week ahead with spells of wind and rain, especially across northern uk but with some dry and sunny weather too, especially for the south / southeast where the most pleasant temps will be.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows the best of the weather across the south of the uk during the week ahead apart from some rain tomorrow but that's mostly for the southwest and west, the southeast should have some sunshine and just a few showers dotted around. Taking a midweek snapshot shows some very pleasant weather across southern and eastern uk and this fine warm weather lasts through thursday further south and even friday although friday is cooler. Into next weekend it's a more generally sunshine and showers mix with temps in the mid to upper teens celsius across the south but cooler further n / nw. 

During week 2, high pressure builds in and becomes firmly established and intensifies over the uk bringing settled and pleasantly warm days but with chilly nights under clear / partly cloudy skies encouraging mist and fog patches to form, eventually the high drifts further east and we import warmer air from the continent. So really its a very pleasant low res covering early / mid october.

 

Edited September 25, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The ecm also introduces ridging from the south west next Sunday in the wake of the depression as it tracks east into Scandinavia but it's very transitional as the Atlantic brings pressure to bear. So to speak,.

[Frosty.]

Following a changeable week ahead, most unsettled across northern uk, best of the fine and warm weather in the south of the uk, bar tomorrow. Week 2 shows strong support for high pressure to build in across the uk according to the GEFS 00z mean bringing fine pleasantly warm days with good sunny spells but as it will be October, expect increasing mist and fog patches to form overnight which could be slow to burn away but should bring plenty of sunny afternoons..becoming benign / fine.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z is a more autumnal run than the 00z, especially next weekend and early in week 2 when a vigorous depression crashes in from the atlantic, a dartboard low. However, the week ahead shows some very pleasant weather across the southern half of the uk for a time after tomorrows rain and temps reaching 70f or thereabouts but always cooler and more unsettled across the north before it turns unsettled everywhere through thurs / fri and next weekend looks disturbed but then during week 2, high pressure builds in across the south for a few days bringing drier, sunnier and warmer weather but remaining changeable further north and west before unsettled weather returns. It's a topsy turvy run and more seasonal as a result but not without some fine and warm intervals, especially further s / e. 

 

Edited September 25, 2016 by Frosty.

[legritter]

Well i should be happy with this weeks weather going by current charts [staying in Cotswolds for 6 days ] ,would have been following week but we had to change dates .

Looks like past next weekend could be very blowy and wet ,GFS as a very deep low some where to our west and ECM also as the Atlantic firing up ,so perhaps September going out like a Lamb and October arriving like A Lion , time will tell ,so more interesting weather perhaps on the horizon to keep our appetites wetted ,cheers all .

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a bump (ridge) of high pressure around midweek when the best of the fine and warm weather will be in the south before the more unsettled weather already across the n / nw of the uk swings southeastwards across the rest of the BI later in the week and throughout next weekend with spells of wind and rain interspersed with sunshine and showers but during week 2 shows high pressure building into the south at least which introduces more settled weather across the south of the uk for a time with more of a northwest / southeast split before signs of unsettled weather becoming more widespread towards mid October...something more seasonal looks to be on the way but still with a few more reminders of summer too across the s / se in particular. :-)

Edited September 25, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Looking at quite wet and possible severe gales in the north Thursday and then hey ho said Rowley (A jolly couple of days on Station 'India' in days of yon )

 

Edited September 25, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows some lovely continental warmth during early october with temps potentially into the mid 20's celsius across the south / southeast..another taste of summer maybe..

As for the week ahead, apart from tomorrow which looks especially wet across Wales and the west / southwest it's really a north / south split for most of the week with the majority of the wind and rain targeting northern uk (n.Ireland & Scotland) with the south of the uk enjoying more in the way of fine and warm weather, especially midweek. It turns more generally unsettled from the northwest later in the week. 

[mb018538]

Yes, spot the warm outlier...

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a north / south split for much of the week ahead with the exception of tomorrow which brings quite a lot of rain to the west / southwest with wales perhaps being the wettest area but once that fragmenting rain band clears away to the east overnight, tuesday and especially wednesday look fine and warm across southern uk with temps between 20-22c from north to south but cooler and more unsettled across the north of the uk with spells of wind and rain pushing in off the Atlantic. Later in the week the lower heights to the northwest extend further south with increasingly unsettled weather but then into week 2 the south / southeast improves again with high pressure becoming more influential across the south but remaining cooler and more changeable / unsettled further north and eventually becoming more unsettled nationwide towards mid october.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows wednesday being the best day of the week ahead further south with a ridge of high pressure extending across southern areas bringing plenty of sunshine and temps around 22c 72f in the s / se but beyond midweek it goes downhill with the more unsettled and cooler weather, already across northern uk throughout the week extending further southeast to remaining areas..but, into week 2 it warms up, especially in the south with tropical maritime air and given any sunshine, temps would be boosted towards the low to mid 20's celsius across the s / se by T+240.. so just like the gfs, the ecm shows a warm up through early october.

Edited September 25, 2016 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

I think it's safe to say we are now seeing a more Autumnal changeable setup and the 12z runs for the coming week continue with this more unsettled picture for all as Atlantic lows move north east between Iceland and Scotland.

Wednesdays fax shows a typical picture with frontal systems wavering south east across the UK and alongside the ECM Friday chart showing the passage of another cold front .

 

so most of us seeing some rain or showers through the coming days and some strong winds further north at times, the rain again more noticeable in the west and north where the fronts will be more active.

A 3 day mean pressure anomaly chart for days 3-6 indicating the greater influence from the Atlantic lows later in the week.

 

with the Azores high being squeezed away.

It is definitely feeling fresher out there now and quite a few locations including here have had some blustery Autumnal showers today,thanks to our typical south westerly pattern.Despite this though temperatures on the whole still look like being around or slightly above the seasonal norm,especially further south east,where the odd warm day is still likely between the fronts.

 

 

[knocker]

And the anomalies are pretty unequivocal in the ten day range with Atlantic trough strongly influencing affairs.

[knocker]

Today

An area of rain will move slowly NE over England with the east/south east/N. Ireland and Scotland remaining reasonable dry.

This morning's GFs continues to be unsettled for the week which is no great surprise given the indicators.

Wednesday evening sees the next system ariving in Scotland and the front(s) proceed to track SE during Thursday all the time weakening. Meanwhile the main depression is tracking sowly east to be just north of Scotland 976mb by Friday 00z bringing further rain and gales for a time. This depression then moves away east into Scandinavia in time for the next depression to arrive over the weekend  A quick look at the evolution after that convinces me to file it under pending.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO makes  less of the Atlantic as we move towards the weekend...

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Hoping this is correct as i'm fell walking in Cumbria next saturday and a nice day will allow me to take in some of the wonderful scenery

[cyclonic happiness]

The GFS sending a pretty potent northerly plunge into Scotland at the ver ar*e end of FI, it won't verify, but it's nice to see the -5'c 850s back in the UK lol

And to any -5's out there who want to visit from the Arctic, I think I can speak for most people on here in saying that you are very welcome and much missed :-)

[northwestsnow]

And ecm says a big fat no to the GFS with the Atlantic kept well at bay ...:)

[mb018538]

ECM looks more like high summer with 850s up between 10-15c by the end of the run! Still much disagreement.....until then we have a very mixed bag, and pretty stormy in the north.

Edited September 26, 2016 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

This would be nice wouldn't it!

The Ecm 00z shows a very summery pattern during early october, I would think low 80's F would be achievable across parts of the south and east..

[knocker]

Regarding the weekend at Saturday 00z the ecm has the shallow low 998mb NW of N. Ireland which drifts slowly east bringing showery conditions to the NW of England and Scotland. As this continues east high pressure builds to the SE/E with ridging over the UK whilst at the same time the deep Atlantic depression meanders N/NW with the associated fronts stalled down the Irish Sea and weakening. It then proceeds to continue to strengthen the HP to the east and we are almost into disruptive trough territory again but this evolution at this stage is so much different to the previous run and doesn't tie in with last nights EPS anomaly that it would be advisable to exercise caution.

[Paul]

It's the first proper Autumnal week of the year! Nick's blogged about what's happening, including looking at how ex-hurricane Karl will play a part tomorrow. 

Week Ahead Sees Powerful Jet Stream Bring Deep Lows

[knocker]

Looking \at this morning's EPS we have slightly more amplification with the trough mid Atlantic and ridging to the east. Ergo some backing of the upper flow to the SW and Atlantic systems tending to track NE leaving the east/south east once again benefiting from drier conditions with temps a little above average.

[mb018538]

I would concur with that knocker - with a small chance of the trough digging far enough to allow something warmer to build up to the east. Keep your eyes peeled.

[Faronstream]

It is weird to see that ECMWF has a high pressure that grows in from the SO Atlantic in the 00z run, i belive more in GFS with Atlantic domination