Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well the GFS 00z throws everything out the window from yesterday.

Karl goes further NW on return we pump up some very warm air and we build in high pressure with some very fine weather and warm for a long period of time as we get locked into it.

BUT each run is changing so much I don't belive it 

[knocker]

The GFS this morning

Saturday starts okay and actually remains quite dry and warm for many, particularly the SE, but a front gradually tracks east during Sat/Sun bringing some wet and windy weather followed by showers.

Monday see the next perturbation arriving but the centre of interest is the remnants of Karl that have tracked NE and become absorbed into another depression in the central Atlantic

This area of low pressure then engages with the160kt jet and tracks rapidly ENE to be 976mb north of Scotland by Weds 00z bringing some quite strong winds for a time to the north. Te southern half of the UK escapes the worst of this as the Azores HP pushes pushes NE.

This essentially the story for the rest of the week with HP to the south with any systems tracking NE and effecting the norther half of Britain. Temps on the whole next week not too bad and perhaps a little above average. Having said that there such a marked difference between the last two GFS runs, all  to do with the timing of the phasing of the wram/cold air I suspect, that little credence should be given to the detail at the moment. Just MO of course.

Edited September 23, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

UKMO and GFS very different again this morning...





Karl still causing headaches...they couldn't be much more different really!

[Frosty.]

The south of the uk gets a pretty good deal from the Gfs 00z this morning with high pressure bringing plenty of fine and pleasantly warm weather during the next few weeks with temperatures into the low 20's celsius more often than not BUT contrast that with Scotland which looks more changeable and generally much cooler although even the north settles down later...in the short term, tomorrow looks summery across most of England and Wales with spells of warm sunshine and subtropical air.

 

Edited September 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

GFS and  have the ex hurricane in about the same area by 120h, close by the Faroes, depth 980 maybe 975 mb with UK, EC has it further north.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

sorry my pc playing up and will not open Net Wx version

[knocker]

The ecm is not hugely different to the GFS with the track of ex Karl. At Weds 00z it has the low a little further east and not so deep at 984mb. After that any similarities are coincidental. The ecm tracks a a rapidly deepening low NE to be around 964mg just north of Scotland by 12z Thursday which if verified would bring some quite wild weather to Scotland with gusts in the 60-70Kt range.

Edited September 23, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

It's fair to say the gfs and ecm 00z are not on the same page..The Ecm 00z is certainly showing its autumnal face this morning with increasingly disturbed weather after a fair and warm lull across the south of the uk next midweek with the Atlantic really cranking up big time bringing some occasionally wild weather, especially up north..I'm looking forward to proper autumn and then winter

Edited September 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

GFS - high pressure moving in
ECM - full on autumn with wind and rain

Totally opposite outcomes. Back to the drawing board!

[MR EXTREMES]

canada september 28th 2008 hurricaine karl made landfall in eastern canada http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?ARCHIV=1&LANG=en&MENU=207&FILE=b2.txt&DAY=20080929&JJA=2008&MMA=10&TTA=01

was it not october 2008 we had a arctic blast ? indeed we did 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/28_30october2008

i also remember what followed beyond christmas into 2009 more so feb 2009 and this autumn already showing signs of a little more hurricaine activity than we have had in recent years.

and this year so far,

a lower solar activity plus a very low arctic minima,

and as you can see already pretty quick cooling of the northern hemisphere and through out the recent months we also seen more higher heights into greenland and more recently scandi area.

now by far im no expert but i see similar in patterns of autumn and winter 08/09 to this season now although far from identical similar in the fact that heights seem to also want to try and push up north even signs of heights in latter model runs pushing up a omega type block to our west and perhaps futher on into southern greenland.

certainly not a barrage of low pressure systems straight west to east like recent years.

anyway im expecting better wintry spells this coming winter perhaps a bit chilly at times through october.

so the ecm and ukmo seem pretty close to each other on this mornings runs the gfs i feel has been bit touch and go as is normally the case through the seasons.

 

id have to say apart from the intensity of the lows into scotland the ukmo is a little more weaker if i had to bet on which model will be more on the money id have to side with the ecm cooler and wetter by 144 and frost and perhaps wintry weather on the tops of the mountains.

so much more of a seasonal feel also before this timescale theres some warmth and tropical air being thrown up as the low approaches from the west so still some sunshine and warmth to be had so make the most of it.

and i would also like to say that i have spelling and difficulties and ive been slated before because of this so im sorry if you find my posts hard to understand but i do try. thank u 

 

 

[Frosty.]

53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS - high pressure moving in
ECM - full on autumn with wind and rain

Totally opposite outcomes. Back to the drawing board!

A betting person would probably plump for a middle ground scenario which would be very decent for the south but progressively more changeable / unsettled across the n / nw of the uk.

[stodge]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Well the GFS 00z throws everything out the window from yesterday.

Karl goes further NW on return we pump up some very warm air and we build in high pressure with some very fine weather and warm for a long period of time as we get locked into it.

BUT each run is changing so much I don't belive it 

Caution is always a sensible option when analysing the outputs so nothing wrong with that.

My only thought is that at T+144 the GFS members are overwhelmingly backing the OP in terms of keeping HP close to the south of the British Isles. Yes, there are variations in its exact positioning and orientation as you would expect but I see only three members offering a more LP based scenario so a difference from the last few days of widespread uncertainty and scatter.

I do note ECM following a more autumnal track as does GEM albeit with pressure rising again from the west just after the turn of the month.

[Frosty.]

28 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

 

and i would also like to say that i have spelling and difficulties and ive been slated before because of this so im sorry if you find my posts hard to understand but i do try. thank u 

 

 

I had no problem understanding your post, and I agree with what you said about the latest model output. :- )

Edited September 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

The main problem we have at the moment is everyone slating Karl....and we mean a hurricane and not Frosty!  Always an interesting time of year with a wide range of temperatures available - it can still get hot in the right set up....equally it can get pretty darn cold! 

[Man With Beard]

Beautiful GEFS control run this morning for next week:

ECM ensembles are much slower ejecting the trough to the NE and consequently a Nly flow not far away as autumn begins.

Not sure what to make of it. The difference seems partly because the ECM collapses heights to the E quicker than GEFS at around T120 - normally you would expect the other way round. Or maybe GEFS is taking Azores ridging too far?

GFS 06Z - oooo hello

that could easily result in a 26/27C when all is counted up, and into the 20s all up the east coast. No chance of a record thanks to 2011 but a beach start to October all the same - that's the direction the GFS is going in, anyway.

Edited September 23, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Frosty.]

Quite a pleasant Gfs 6z..doesn't have much in common with the Ecm 00z. 

Most of any unsettled weather brushes across northern uk and even they see a marked improvement as the run goes on and the south has some very pleasant weather with temps into the low 20's c at times next week..just an increasing risk of overnight mist and fog with chilly nights once we get into October but this run, for the most part, shows the friendly face of autumn...especially across England and Wales..nothing nasty lurking in the 6z woodshed!

[Faronstream]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Quite a pleasant Gfs 6z..doesn't have much in common with the Ecm 00z. 

Most of any unsettled weather brushes across northern uk and even they see a marked improvement as the run goes on and the south has some very pleasant weather with temps into the low 20's c at times next week..just an increasing risk of overnight mist and fog with chilly nights once we get into October but this run, for the most part, shows the friendly face of autumn...especially across England and Wales..nothing nasty lurking in the 6z woodshed!

My experience from GFS is that the 06Z runs are most of the times the warmest runs, and the last 5 days we have seen developing low pressures for the first week of October so i think the possibility for any stronger high pressure the coming 2 weeks are abnormally low

[phil nw.]

The combined London ens show the different possible outcomes as we go into October.

 

The red ECM output looking at a cooler and wetter start to the new month further south.

The Gefs seeing much more influence from the Azores high at this stage with some warmth still to be had. 

 

Edited September 23, 2016 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

My experience from GFS is that the 06Z runs are most of the times the warmest runs, and the last 5 days we have seen developing low pressures for the first week of October so i think the possibility for any stronger high pressure the coming 2 weeks are abnormally low

You could be right, the latest expert view is more like the very unsettled Ecm 00z and nothing like the benign 6z gfs operational. It's looking like a proper autumn weather pattern is on the way with the worst of it across the northwest of the uk and the best of any fine interludes across the southeast. In the short term, tomorrow looks quite summery across most of England and Wales with temps between 20-24c from north to south, much more unsettled and cooler across the n / nw of the uk and then the warmth across the south is swept away to the east from sunday with a cooler mix of sunshine and showers with fresh winds from the west and originating from the northwest Atlantic.

Edited September 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

rrrrrright ... any chance you could get round the table and discuss your differences, UKMO/GFS/GEM?

    

[Frosty.]

Well the Gfs 12z looks even nicer than the 6z, especially through low res with high pressure becoming centred over the uk and intensifying...let me put it this way, if you read the met office update and then watch this run unfold there is no comparison whatsoever!

Edited September 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Next week looks decent across the south of the uk according to the Gfs 12z and low res is a peach with anticyclonic dominance bringing sunny pleasantly warm days and cool nights with mist and fog patches..it's very benign!

Edited September 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, early October looks very pleasant with high pressure in control, much as the op run shows in low res with sunny days and chilly nights under clear skies with increasing overnight mist and fog patches which would be par for the course in october but really what I'm seeing from the gfs / gefs bears no relation to the very unsettled MO update..interesting times!

 

Edited September 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

ECM and UKMO at T144 on the same page - unsettled, cooler, windier. Usual procedure suggests UKMO+ECM = correct answer. Hopefully not, personally.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

 Usual procedure suggests UKMO+ECM = correct answer. 

I don't necessarily agree, in my opinion the Gfs / Gefs has been better overall in recent times, the ecm and ukmo could be barking up the wrong tree..together!

Of course. Time will reveal all

Edited September 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

At t144 tonight it's ECM and UKMO v GFS and GEM