Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Man With Beard]

^^ Frosty - highest September temperature in a very very long time under threat, were you aware the record September temperature is 35.6C somewhere near your neck of the woods??

And can we get a decent weekend for once, if a little fresher?

   

Edited September 12, 2016 by Man With Beard

[cheese]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

^^ Frosty - highest September temperature in a very very long time under threat, were you aware the record September temperature is 35.6C somewhere near your neck of the woods??

And can we get a decent weekend for once, if a little fresher?

   

Wakefield appears in quite a few max temp date records, and a few other places in Yorkshire as well. Not all gloom and rain up north. :-)

Edited September 12, 2016 by cheese

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows 3 hot days coming up for most of England and Wales with temps in the upper 20's celsius which is scorchio for mid september and favoured spots in parts of the s / se could reach 30-31c tomorrow and then 28-29c on both wed / thurs so it's an exceptional spell with hot sunshine, increasing humidity and a growing risk of thundery showers breaking out, more like the middle of July than the middle of september. It's a different story across northern uk, nothing like as warm as further south and then by Friday it's turning cooler and fresher from the west but the weekend looks decent across the south due to some ridging but more unsettled towards the northwest. Next week looks more typical for the time of year but later in low res high pressure brings a more settled spell towards the end of the month...even if we don't break any records this week, the next 3 days will be right up there for the south of the uk.

[blizzard81]

A much improved September update on the Met Office probability maps for the winter ahead. Seems to indicate higher than average heights just to the north of the UK during the coming winter - northern blocking. Sorry cannot post the charts but just type in global probability maps into the search bar on met office website. It updated today.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the next three days looks pretty darn warm for a fair proportion of the country with parts of central/southern England looking hot.

Arpege temperature predictions

      

 

30C or so possible on all 3 days, I am slightly doubtful for Thursday as the warmth tends to mix out a little bit by then, the warmth tends to vary day to day depending where the front lies where there will be more cloud with some rain or showers. Thursday looks the best day UK wide with the cut off low drifting harmlessly away and the front dying out to leave sunny spells for most.

Moving on, a front will push east during Friday to leave fresher conditions, but conditions still looks fairly okay for the time of year with temperatures a little above normal and fairly dry in the south, in this typical westerly regime the north west will be wetter and windier at times.

GEFs

      

The ECM suite is similar, the 12z is coming out now.

      

Not a bad outlook for the upcoming weekend, cooler but fairly dry apart from a few showers. Differences next week with the ECM showing the Azores high ridging in at times, especially so in the south.

Edited September 12, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

This is impressive stuff for mid september and the Ecm hasn't backed down at all in recent days, it's been consistently showing this and now we have arrived. Three hot days coming up across England and Wales with lots of sunshine and even a risk of thundery showers breaking out as time goes on..even better news is the Gfs has caught up..finally!

[Nouska]

2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well the next three days looks pretty darn warm for a fair proportion of the country with parts of central/southern England looking hot.

Arpege temperature predictions

On the AROME zoom,there's even a tiny pocket of 34C forecast for tomorrow - what is the September record?

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

A much improved September update on the Met Office probability maps for the winter ahead. Seems to indicate higher than average heights just to the north of the UK during the coming winter - northern blocking. Sorry cannot post the charts but just type in global probability maps into the search bar on met office website. It updated today.

Here's the link for the ensemble mean charts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Z500    T2m  

An edit regarding the question from @northwestsnow - yes it is GloSea5 - model info in the 'technical user guide' link just under the important details header.

Edited September 12, 2016 by Nouska

[northwestsnow]

21 minutes ago, Nouska said:

On the AROME zoom,there's even a tiny pocket of 34C forecast for tomorrow - what is the September record?

Here's the link for the ensemble mean charts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Z500    T2m  

Thats a very positive update for cold lovers!:D

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a very positive update for cold lovers!:D

Absolutely, it will be nice to see plenty of blue coloured charts instead of that awful red crayon knocker was using throughout last winter!

In the meantime, the models show 3 hot days and warm nights across England and Wales..Enjoy

Edited September 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Absolutely, it will be nice to see plenty of blue coloured chars instead of that awful red crayon knocker was using throughout last winter!

In the meantime, the models show 3 hot days and warm nights across England and Wales..Enjoy

I assume that is derived from the GLOSEA model, maybe someone could confirm...)

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I assume that is derived from the GLOSEA model, maybe someone could confirm...)

I believe it is from GLOSEA.

[johnholmes]

4 hours ago, cheese said:

Wakefield appears in quite a few max temp date records, and a few other places in Yorkshire as well. Not all gloom and rain up north. :-)

Some doubt about the value but close to Doncaster at what is now an expensive hotel.

The highest September temperature recorded was in 1906 – 96F (35.6C) in Bawtry, South Yorkshire.

the hall is about 2 miles ESE of Bawtry

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, Nouska said:

On the AROME zoom,there's even a tiny pocket of 34C forecast for tomorrow - what is the September record?

Certainly tomorrow's date record of 28.3C set back in 1934 is under threat.

Ironically, eastern England is forecast to be hotter than southern Spain tomorrow, which has just come out of a record heatwave when last week temperatures reached 45C (114F)

Max temps last Tuesday across Spain:

Looking at the medium range of the operational runs today, GFS appears to have been more progressive in keeping a deeply cyclonic flow close or over the UK, whilst the ECM keeps the Atlantic trough further west towards the end of the run, with a ridge being thrown north across the UK, so summer warmth may return again. 12z EC and GFS comaprison reflacts this difference:

[Methuselah]

'Under threat', Nick? Who's to say that it won't be gone by lunchtime?

[Paul]

Nick's taken an in depth look at the heat records in Spain, the expect one in the UK tomorrow, and then the eventual arrival of something a lot more Autumnal in his latest blog:

Heat Leaves Spain For The UK, Before Autumn Kicks In

[mb018538]

Morning all - today is the day then! Will we see 90c breached??

Output isn't that bad either - there is quite a deep trough around in the atlantic, but it never slams across the UK, instead tracking more to the NW. Quite a mobile flow overall, though nothing desperately unsettled. Better in the SE.

[Matthew.]

Yes agree a very deep Low at 955mb mid Atlantic. Let's hope it goes NW still for all the summer lovers GFS pretty good outcome 7-day

Edited September 13, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS certainly shows the PV building over Greenland into the run bringing Autumn proper to the UK from the West into Wk2.

Edited September 13, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[mb018538]

ECM looks half decent today too, trough parked mainly over Iceland, high pressure nosing in from the Azores, and starting to get warmer at the end again, with the 10c line coming back in. September is looking well above average, put it that way.

[Man With Beard]

This chart looks has a potential turning point. The trough gets south of Iceland and looks mean. From this point, you could get a slinger low moving around the trough, ploughing straight through the UK. The ECM rescues the situation this morning with favourable timing of the next low from the States leading to a rise of heights again, but looks close

[johnholmes]

Looking at the anomaly charts there have been constant changes in emphasis with ECMWF-GFS re which will be most dominant, trough or ridging. Not so with NOAA which has kept the trough as the major factor.

So not the total similarity across all 3 to give absolute belief but I would back the NOAA idea more than the other two.

All shown below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Gordon Webb]

Looking at the models today is going to be the hottest day of the week with a very slight decrease of the next two and back to more seasonal temps by Friday , also a question with the day lengths as they are what time are the peak of the temps going to be ?

Edited September 13, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Gordon Webb]

16 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

^^ Frosty - highest September temperature in a very very long time under threat, were you aware the record September temperature is 35.6C somewhere near your neck of the woods??

And can we get a decent weekend for once, if a little fresher?

   

35.6C for September didn't realize it was that high , can't see that been broken don't even think we made that in June July Or August

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, Gordon Webb said:

Looking at the models today is going to be the hottest day of the week with a very slight decrease of the next two and back to more seasonal temps by Friday , also a question with the day lengths as they are what time are the peak of the temps going to be ?

It'll be mid afternoon - 3/4pm for the maxes today. In high summer you can sometimes get a bit more heat squeezed out after 4pm, but that's unlikely today.

[thestixx]

On 09/09/2016 at 23:42, Summer Sun said:

Not bad for September 

3 hours ago, Gordon Webb said:

35.6C for September didn't realize it was that high , can't see that been broken don't even think we made that in June July Or August

Can anyone post the chart for the September record?