Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, sundog said:

Funny isn't it ,those egging on the Azores high now,but in a few weeks time they will be cursing the bloody thing lol. 

I'm egging it on...for now

[Polar Maritime]

If we could keep chit-chat/personal preferences to the Summer thread please, Thanks.

[knocker]

Just to confirm the EPS is looking at Tuesday to be the 'hot' day and currently looking at 30-32C. There after it is downhill, or uphill, and very soon we are back in familiar territory with LP to the NW and HP to the SW and the detail depending on the phasing of the different air-masses with the usual N/S spit favouring the latter.

[Frosty.]

Good support from the Ecm 12z ens mean for another plume with increasingly hot and humid weather being imported from southern Europe during the first half of next week, especially tues / wed with temps soaring well into the 80's F across the south with plenty of hot sunshine and then a thundery breakdown but it would be a noteworthy achievement for mid september if parts of the south reach 90F next week..fingers crossed

[Summer Sun]

Not bad for September 

[thestixx]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Not bad for September 

Another scorching Tuesday. If only it was a Saturday....

[knocker]

Today

Two features. First the intense low north of Scotland moves quickly away leaving blustery showers over Scotland and easing fiendish sea conditions. Second a slow moving front crossing England will be slow to clear so probably the better weather the further west you are.

The GFS this morning . The upper trough duly deconstructs early next week facilitating the formation of a slack,unstable low pressure surface feature that is centred just to the SW by 1800z Tuesday.

This low pressure then loiters with intent, deepening and slowly moving north during the week, possibly bringing some quite stormy conditions to the western half of the UK and even wider afield, with perhaps some significant localised rainfall. After a 'hot' day on Tuesday when temps could reach 32C in places cooler air is quickly introduce on Wednesday as the system develops and are back to average by Thursday.

As the LP moves away to the NE, then into the North Sea there is brief ridging from the Azores before the next system tracks in from the west by Sunday.

There are of course a number of provisos with this The timing of the introduction of the cooler air is rather dependent on the movement of the low and associated fronts.

 

Edited September 10, 2016 by knocker

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Today

Two features. First the intense low north of Scotland moves quickly away leaving blustery showers over Scotland and easing fiendish sea conditions. Second a slow moving front crossing England will be slow to clear so probably the better weather the further west you are.

The GFS this morning . The upper trough duly deconstructs early next week facilitating the formation of a slack,unstable low pressure surface feature that is centred just to the SW by 1800z Tuesday.

This low pressure then loiters with intent, deepening and slowly moving north during the week, possibly bringing some quite stormy conditions to the western half of the UK and even wider afield, with perhaps some significant localised rainfall. After a 'hot' day on Tuesday when temps could reach 32C in places cooler air is quickly introduce on Wednesday as the system develops and are back to average by Thursday.

As the LP moves away to the NE, then into the North Sea there is brief ridging from the Azores before the next system tracks in from the west by Sunday.

There are of course a number of provisos with this The timing of the introduction of the cooler air is rather dependent on the movement of the low and associated fronts.

 

Yep looking at my local met office forecast all this seems to tie in nicely with that , the hot day appears to be Tuesday and if the BEEB are to be take a face value more especially Eastern areas , it seems 3 fine days and a thunderstorms doesn't even apply here , looks like one fine afternoon then the weather goes to hell in a hand basket

[Matthew.]

Everything cool and autumnal is so far north on the ECM today! If this pattern keeps up last December won't be the only month to break records Thursday onwards:

 

Edited September 10, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[knocker]

Yup the ecm has a different take on next week' It does run an  unstable perturbation up the west side of the UK on Tuesday but the main area of instability remains to the south.That is until the brief ridging from the SW declines on Friday when it tracks NE into the North Sea bringing some decidedly grotty wet and cool weather to the UK  for the weekend.

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z prolongs next weeks heat so it's an upgrade, it looks more like high summer than early autumn, a real bonus spell of hot sunshine and increasing humidity with thunderstorms breaking out..perfick

[northwestsnow]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yup the ecm has a different take on next week' It does run an  unstable perturbation up the west side of the UK on Tuesday but the main area of instability remains to the south.That is until the brief ridging from the SW declines on Friday when it tracks NE into the North Sea bringing some decidedly grotty wet and cool weather to the UK  for the weekend.

 

grotty,cool and wet are absolutely not the words i would be using to describe that ecm run in any shape or form..

I'd suggest in the main warm to very warm, and dry, with the chance of thundery weather at times..

 

Edited September 10, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Matthew.]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yup the ecm has a different take on next week' It does run an  unstable perturbation up the west side of the UK on Tuesday but the main area of instability remains to the south.That is until the brief ridging from the SW declines on Friday when it tracks NE into the North Sea bringing some decidedly grotty wet and cool weather to the UK  for the weekend.

 

Scarborough could be a bit drizzly

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i will have to bow to your superior knowledge because grotty,cool and wet are absolutely not the words i would be using to describe that ecm run, 

 

Nor would I as i specifically used them to describe next weekend. I would appreciate it if you didn't deliberately misquote me to make a point. And for the record I do not claim any superior knowledge.

And also for the record the ecm has two hot days, east of a line Yorkshire-Dorset on Tuesday and Weds

Edited September 10, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Nor would I as i specifically used them to describe next weekend. I would appreciate it if you didn't deliberately misquote me to make a point. And for the record I do not claim any superior knowledge.

I think it was the fact you neglected to mention the word warm or hot in your post, the Ecm 00z looks very summery for most of next week with temperatures well above average.

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Nor would I as i specifically used them to describe next weekend. I would appreciate it if you didn't deliberately misquote me to make a point. And for the record I do not claim any superior knowledge.

Karl is correct, anyway, lets move on, i dont wish to become embroiled in any silliness.

ECM looks in the main, very warm, esp across the SE, with temps close to 30, very noteworthy for mid Sep i would suggest !

 

Edited September 10, 2016 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Karl is correcr, anyway, lets move on, i dont wish to become embroiled in any silliness.

ECM looks in the main, very warm, esp across the SE, with temps close to 30, very noteworthy for mid Sep i would suggest !

 

Nor do I but I dislike being deliberately misquoted. And oh dear a hanging offence because I didn't mention warm or hot whilst attempting to actually give an idea of the evolution which I actually find of interest even if you don't.

Edited September 10, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Nor do I but I dislike being deliberately misquoted.

you wern't, and if there is anything else to discuss i really think it ought to be by PM, or we'll both get in trouble.

[carled]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think it was the fact you neglected to mention the word warm or hot in your post, the Ecm 00z looks very summery for most of next week with temperatures well above average.

Slight correction: looks very summery for most of next week for most of  England EXCEPT for the southwest basically. Unfortunately Much of Devon and Cornwall will be under the cold and wet bit. GFS & UKMO seem to be pretty much in agreement on this now. 

[Polar Maritime]

Just friendly model discussion please in here, Any issues please report or use the Pm facility. Thanks.

[Summer Sun]

And getting back on topic...

GFS shows 3 very warm to hot days next week with Tuesday the hottest nationwide

By Thursday it's a lot fresher with the highest temps starting to range from the mid to upper teens overtime

[Frosty.]

Temps reaching 31-33c 88-91F across parts of southern uk and  in mid September is absolutely stunning, and that is what the models are showing!Boom!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Temps reaching 31-33c 88-91F across parts of southern uk and  in mid September is absolutely stunning, and that is what the models are showing!Boom!

Yes looks hot across the south on tues,temps of 29 dropping down to 22 into the weekend in London, although that is the BBC app and they do tend to change quite abruptly esp the further one goes into FI

[markyo]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Temps reaching 31-33c 88-91F across parts of southern uk and  in mid September is absolutely stunning, and that is what the models are showing!Boom!

Ok,can we have a show of hands the folk who DON'T find this model output interesting? Anybody with their hands up better have a think even if like myself are not a heat fan. I would agree with the stunning word which has been used is correct. Very unusual week coming up,much to keep even me interested!

[Polar Maritime]

The Net/Wx-SR take on next Tuesday.. Certainly a 'Hot' day widely for the UK and Cape sky high.

 

Edited September 10, 2016 by Polar Maritime