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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

After the breakdown late next week confidence looks lower with GFS and Euro each doing their own thing.

Autumn fans will be hoping for the UKMO or GEM to be on the money..

Rgem2281.gif

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

The heat covers a slightly wider area on the 06z for Tuesday

00z                                                                     06z

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

Same story for Wednesday too

00z                                                                     06z                                                                  

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

The heat clings onto the SE during Thursday a greater chance of some thunderstorms starting to break out here as well during the day

ukmaxtemp.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

GFS 06Z - very warm again but there's rain around in the far west from Tuesday and in a number of places from Wednesday. But the warmth doesn't clear quickly - still pretty warm air aloft for all of England/Wales by Friday, and any sunnier spots could still be hot by this point (based on this run):

gfs-1-162.png?6

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Temperature wise, it's another taste of summer during next week with temps well into the 20's celsius and pushing into the 80's F further south, becoming dry and sunny for a time before it turns increasingly humid with a growing chance of thunderstorms breaking out..it's a summery looking pattern next week according to the GEFS 6z mean.

21_72_850tmp.png

21_96_850tmp.png

21_120_850tmp.png

21_144_850tmp.png

21_216_500mb.png

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
8 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

 

Yep  i think Nick L  posted something similiar yesterday  i have no idea how good this model is  but at that range lots of ifs and butts   still good news  if only the QBO will play ball

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

According to the experts and most of the model output so far today it will become very warm again next week, at least across England and Wales with temps well above the seasonal average...more like high summer than early autumn. The far west and north are the exception with a slow moving band of rain but the uk looks bathed in warm air and very warm / humid air from southern Europe pumping up across the southern half of the uk in particular bringing summery continental conditions with temps into the 80's F with hot sunshine and an increasing chance of heavy showers and T-Storms...not autumnal at all!:D

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Author
Posted

This could be one last heat plume before inevitably seasonal changes start to restrict the northward extent of tropical sourced heat.The latest GEF Euro temperatures expected v climatic averages for next week-still showing the expected notable warmth for the UK and continental Europe.

1.png2.png

positive anomalies widely with the south east quarter again looking at 5c or more above,although nearly everywhere seeing above normal temperatures for mid-September.

Week 2 does indicate a gradual cooling trend though-even for the favoured south east

3.gif

something more akin to September as fresher Atlantic air moves in.

Welcome back Frosty by the way.:)

 

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Still on track :shok:

cfs_anom_t2m_eur_201612_56.png

You are a tease!

Seriously though Knocker I am not sure much can be taken form those seasonal projections.They are prone to more changes than week 2 of current outputs.

Yes it is model output but come on really they have no relevance to current discussions-which really what this thread is about.:)

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
35 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Welcome back Frosty by the way.:)

 

Cheers Phil. I think the southern half of the uk is on course for another plume next week, mid September will feel more like mid July if things work out.:)

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Can someone post a radar forecast for Tomorrow - Saturday between 12 - 4pm SE UK as we are hoping to go out :)

Much appreciated :)

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Can someone post a radar forecast for Tomorrow - Saturday between 12 - 4pm SE UK as we are hoping to go out :)

Much appreciated :)

According to the Gfs 12z it will be overcast tomorrow afternoon across the south / east of England with outbreaks of rain (some heavy) along a slow moving cold front making erratic progress eastwards but warm ahead of it with temps around 22c in any brightness and Kent looks last to see the rain..., it's touch and go but I think you could need a brolly.:)

160910.png

12_27_ukcloud.png

ukprec.png

ukprec (1).png

Edited by Frosty.
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Further, upgrades to the heat for early next week with an even wider area under it

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

According to the Gfs 12z it will be overcast tomorrow afternoon across the south / east of England with outbreaks of rain (some heavy) along a slow moving cold front making erratic progress eastwards but warm ahead of it with temps around 22c in any brightness and Kent looks last to see the rain..., it's touch and go but I think you could need a brolly.:)

160910.png

12_27_ukcloud.png

ukprec.png

ukprec (1).png

not had many nice Saturdays Frosty! only one really 23rd July, great to see you back! IF you were banned you didn't deserve it

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

 

Well it's mid September next week but you could say it's mid July according to the Gfs 12z, really hotting up with temps locally reaching 90F in the south and a growing chance of isolated thunderstorms mixed with the plentiful hot sunshine..beautiful charts! Couldn't ask for better considering the time of year.

Apologies for wrong quote.

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp.png

hgt500-1000 (1).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukprec.png

h850t850eu.png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

ukstormrisk.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not had many nice Saturdays Frosty! only one really 23rd July, great to see you back! IF you were banned you didn't deserve it

Thanks

I wasn't banned, just took a break:)

It looks like another burst of very summery weather will arrive from the south by next Monday.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Looking at UKMO temperatures should start and become a bit fresher from Thursday and winds shift around to a westerly plenty of heat before then and some thunderstorms too

Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Thanks

I wasn't banned, just took a break:)

It looks like another burst of very summery weather will arrive from the south by next Monday.

yes, amazing how the hot weather is timed for monday/se Tuesday elsewhere maybe wed too, then fresher thurs (west), did it last year too

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