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Steve Murr

SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17

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31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Instability said:

Quick question.  Has data ever be compiled of the various states of teleconnection drivers during our most severe winters.  For example MJO, ENSO, QBO, GWO, NAO, AO, PNA to name a few and then other factors collated and compared such as sea ice extent, snow coverage across Eurasia in October, SST anomalies, SSW and general stratospheric variables.  If every one of these teleconnection drivers were known in addition to the other variables mentioned and calculated to produce a composite could this not be an effective way to compare with past years and help us to produce a long range forecast?

All strong and very strong ENSO events have been bad winters in the Netherlands, the best winters saw no events or weak events

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5 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

All strong and very strong ENSO events have been bad winters in the Netherlands, the best winters saw no events or weak events

Am I right in saying that traditionally the best winters in the Netherlands were the ones where you could skate on the canals? 

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Instability said:

 

 

21 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Am I right in saying that traditionally the best winters in the Netherlands were the ones where you could skate on the canals? 

winter tend to be either cold and dry or warm and wet but we do sometimes get some nice snowy ones (78-9, 12-3 was good too)

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5 hours ago, Nouska said:

Eurasian snow cover advance in graphic format.

CwStiNdWEAQFOA5.jpg

Image courtesy of Ant Masiello twitter feed.

https://twitter.com/antmasiello

Difficult for old eyes to sort out the dates but suffice to say it is a long time since it went above the the 20m square kilometres.

Looks like 1972 and 1976 where the last two years.

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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Looks like 1972 and 1976 where the last two years.

Indeed. And neither subsequent winter was anything to write home about?

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed. And neither subsequent winter was anything to write home about?

Not amazing  However i believe winter 76-77 had cert of 1.8 for December 2.1 for January. 3.6 for Feb.   So not that bad.

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Just now, weirpig said:

Not amazing  However i believe winter 76-77 had cert of 1.8 for December 2.1 for January. 3.6 for Feb.   So not that bad.

Blimey. I'd die for a winter like that these days!

I do recall - at least, I think I do - that January 1977 had an enormous blizzard, oop norf? Wasn't Huddersfield on the News, something about a murder? Or, far more likely WP, am I losing it?:fool:

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Blimey. I'd die for a winter like that these days!

I do recall - at least, I think I do - that January 1977 had an enormous blizzard, oop norf? Wasn't Huddersfield on the News, something about a murder? Or, far more likely WP, am I losing it?:fool:

Id like to help out Pete  but i was only 1,    i think there may have been a snow storm  trawling through the archives

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

what is cert?

Fat  Thumb  CET    (central england temp)

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9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Id like to help out Pete  but i was only 1,    i think there may have been a snow storm  trawling through the archives

I remember it - it was the first proper snow, in Milton Keynes, since Xmas 1970, I think...I also remember the day Frazier beat Ali and the day when Nilsson was at #1...It must be the snow that I can remember; it usually is!:fool: 

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20 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'm still not fully convinced on the snowfall theory to be fair, yes snow on the ground with cold upper airs on top in a slack flow in particular will be hard to shift but if the jet stream positions itself correctly, then it can be blasted away in a matter of days.

However if the pattern does not change and the cold gets stronger and stronger then it could be interesting. On a UK POV, its Scandinavia I would be most interested in having snow cover as an easterly over a snow cover Scandi would more likely bring colder air than say if it was lacking in snow cover.

Likewise regarding being convinced, it's a theory that's very much in its infancy, but will be interesting whether it adds to future long range forecasting accuracy.

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20 hours ago, jules216 said:

I am not convinced at all about this Cohen theory,actually I think the large Siberian high deflects the vortex towards Greenland and Canada and that the early cold in EuroAsia kind of exhaust itself too early,if anything I would prefer Scandi be much above average,but it isnt, see attached snow cover extent by year, I don't see any statistical correlation,much the opposite many years with abnormally large extent followed by mild winters,like past 3 years

screenshot-2016-11-02-16-36-04.jpg

screenshot-2016-11-02-16-43-02.jpg

Everything seemed to fit perfectly in 2012/2013 so his theory has been given a lot more time to prove itself than others, even after the massive failures of 14/15 and 15/16.

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Blimey....It's been known for myself and a few party friends to get beer & fags from a late night petrol garage from time to time.....:whistling:

Wouldn't fancy that one though, unless I got snowed in of course...'HIC' :D..... GREAT PIC'S.

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7 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

Are you thinking of February 1978? The Highlands saw some severe blizzards that year I'm told (before my time!)

 

Photos attached (note the woman in the first!)

 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Blimey,it must of been cold.That woman has grown a beard to try and keep warm.:cold::)

Edited by Snow phall
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Come on Scotland time to join the party for a while

southern Sweden still waiting but i suspect not for long

Finland now has it's winter coat on

Would be interesting to find out what temps the water in a triangular area between Northern Scotland, Iceland and Norway is currently 

Spent many happy years in that region carrying out hydrographic work

Only Alaska to go before we have cover 60N

ims2016309_asiaeurope.gif

ims2016309.gif

Edited by moorlander
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Finished third for SAI, behind 1976 and 2002, just ahead of 2009. We were however the highest non-El Nino year with 2012 being next. 

Looking through the winter AO data for the top 10 we see that 43% of winter months saw an AO value below -1. 

 3.png

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22 hours ago, Snow phall said:

Blimey,it must of been cold.That woman has grown a beard to try and keep warm.:cold::)

Look closely to the left of him :p

Edited by NorthernRab

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2 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Look closely to the left of him :p

Haha,i know,i was joking because at first i didn't see her.I hope we get half that snowfall this Winter.

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On ‎04‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 11:12, NorthernRab said:

Are you thinking of February 1978? The Highlands saw some severe blizzards that year I'm told (before my time!)

 

Photos attached (note the woman in the first!)

 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Meanwhile in Japan.....:blink2::rofl:

japan-snow.jpgtateyama.jpgJapan+snow.jpgGreat-wall-of-snow-3.jpg

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On 04/11/2016 at 11:12, NorthernRab said:

Are you thinking of February 1978? The Highlands saw some severe blizzards that year I'm told (before my time!)

 

Photos attached (note the woman in the first!)

 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

there were 2 mega storms in Jan 1977 that would have been snowfests, have look at the chart archive on this site

 

BFTP

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56 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Meanwhile in Japan.....:blink2::rofl:

japan-snow.jpgtateyama.jpgJapan+snow.jpgGreat-wall-of-snow-3.jpg

Snowiest city on earth is not far from there. Think we'd need a few December 2010's to match that!

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