SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17

[beng]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes its one factor, but as we saw I think last year or was it 2014 my memory is very poor on this, it didn't have an impact whatsoever. 

Yeah no guarantee agreed! 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Big change to the snow field coverage in Northern Canada and Alaska in just 4 days

[summer blizzard]

22 hours ago, beng said:

I guess if you're looking for factors that might favour a colder winter, then the lack of snow across Siberia during September is bizarrely a good sign since it should guarantee (very strange if not) a rapid increase there during October - and obviously there are studies out there linking the increase in October snow cover with the state of the AO later on in winter.

SAI theory is based on the rate of advance south of 60N with the highest correlation being about 7th Oct-7th Nov.

It's not performed the last two winters really however i'd say that the advance in 2014 was an anomaly because the starting position was so high even if we kept the gradient we wanted.

[jonboy]

On ‎13‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 18:31, BornFromTheVoid said:

Those 4 papers aren't about cloud cover, but they're interesting nontheless!

That suggests that the biggest solar eruptions that reduce cosmic rays, "Forbush Decreases", produced something close to a 2% change in cloud cover. It took decades of data and the biggest solar events to detect that signal.

With that in mind, I don't think the recent increase in cosmic rays would produce a detectable change in Arctic cloud cover this summer, especially in one dominated by low pressure and cloud anyway.

the following is from further research which I believe can be a significant in our understanding of how our climate changes over time.

Thus, the result supports a planetary theory of solar and/or climate variation that has recently received a renewed attention. In our particular case, the rhythmic contraction and expansion of the solar system driven by a major resonance involving the movements of the four Jovian planets appear to work as a gravitational/electromagnetic pump that increases and decreases the cosmic ray and dust densities inside the inner region of the solar system, which then modulate both the radionucleotide production and climate change by means of a cloud/albedo modulation.

The abstract can be found here.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301453

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

A few more dots in Eastern Siberia, also Lapland/Northern Norway appears to have had a winter visit

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Ahhh I love this thread soooo much! Makes the run to winter so much more exciting!

 

[bobbydog]

not much yet but there should be significant increases in siberia over the next week to 10 days.

watch this space.....

[Turnedoutniceagain]

8 hours ago, bobbydog said:

not much yet but there should be significant increases in siberia over the next week to 10 days.

watch this space.....

There certainly is....

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Quite a gain in the amount of ice in the past week.

 

Last Monday:

 

This Monday:

 

 

[Frost HoIIow]

Like I said further up the thread I am not really a fan of this subject and it's effects on the UK 5 thousand miles away. But I find it interesting to see the progress of the snow cover and how early it covers Siberia. It's mild at the moment by day in most areas but certainly a large drop in temps over the next week across the Sakha Republic in Russia. No doubt there will be widespread snow cover in the next 7-10 days. Temps will be struggling to get above freezing this time next week and will probably stay that way until April

 

Edited September 20, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Big increase in polar ice again today

[BornFromTheVoid]

10 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Big increase in polar ice again today

Steady increases over the last week or so. The pace of ice growth usually accelerates from now until about mid October.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Compare polar ice cap in just over 3 weeks

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Huge increase in Siberia. That's a snowfield three times the size of Wales !!

[joggs]

20 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Huge increase in Siberia. That's a snowfield three times the size of Wales !!

Also noticed the polar ice has turned it's back on the UK lol.Laughing at us.

[bobbydog]

10 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Huge increase in Siberia. That's a snowfield three times the size of Wales !!

thats nothing compared to whats coming in next week or so....

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia?symbols=none&type=prec

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just now, bobbydog said:

thats nothing compared to whats coming in next week or so....

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia?symbols=none&type=prec

Wow...

That sure looks like a real cooldown!. Temperatures down to below 10F over the whole of East Russia extending into China.

It will be a total white-out in 10 days time!

 

[iapennell]

What matters for Britain, of course, is not how extremely cold and/or snowy it gets in northern Russia or over the Arctic but the scope there is for such frigid air- once produced- to reach this country in late autumn and winter. The weakness of the developing La Niná, the QBO remaining Westerly and the unseasonal warmth of seas to the north and NW of Britain going into autumn this year do not suggest there will be much in the way of scope for frigid Arctic or Russian air reaching this country.

We shall, of course see. I will provide a more detailed forecast for Winter 2016/17 in October when we have a better idea how the main macro-scale drivers of our prevailing winter weather become clearer!  

[iapennell]

On 9/14/2016 at 22:10, Frost HoIIow said:

Been quite a few times there has been an early start to the snow cover and we ended up with a mild or very mild Winter. I think in the next couple of months high pressure to our West, NW, North and NE over Scandi is more important rather than getting excited about snow cover in September 3,500 miles east of here. You can have an excellent snow coverage over Siberia and as far west as Berlin but if we get no blocking high pressure over the areas I said then we can wave goodbye to any notable cold or snow in western Europe. It just ain't gonna happen regardless of what is happening out east.

@Frost HoIIow Indeed. It affirms the point that I have already made that unless the large-scale drivers of the British weather are going to favour outbreaks of very cold air from the north or east over the coming months; then it can drop to -60C with over two feet of lying snow-cover in NE Siberia in December yet we could still have a stiff south-west wind with drizzle and 10C over most of England persisting much of that month. I have not made any winter forecast yet but some of the main drivers are (at this stage) not that encouraging. I speak as one who likes "Proper Winters"!

[Frost HoIIow]

2 minutes ago, iapennell said:

@Frost HoIIow Indeed. It affirms the point that I have already made that unless the large-scale drivers of the British weather are going to favour outbreaks of very cold air from the north or east over the coming months; then it can drop to -60C with over two feet of lying snow-cover in NE Siberia in December yet we could still have a stiff south-west wind with drizzle and 10C over most of England persisting much of that month. I have not made any winter forecast yet but some of the main drivers are (at this stage) not that encouraging. I speak as one who likes "Proper Winters"!

Thanks Ian - I look forward to your Winter forecast.

[bobbydog]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

What matters for Britain, of course, is not how extremely cold and/or snowy it gets in northern Russia or over the Arctic but the scope there is for such frigid air- once produced- to reach this country in late autumn and winter. The weakness of the developing La Niná, the QBO remaining Westerly and the unseasonal warmth of seas to the north and NW of Britain going into autumn this year do not suggest there will be much in the way of scope for frigid Arctic or Russian air reaching this country.

We shall, of course see. I will provide a more detailed forecast for Winter 2016/17 in October when we have a better idea how the main macro-scale drivers of our prevailing winter weather become clearer!  

lets not forget the tentative signs of the QBO reverting to easterly though...

[bobbydog]

another day, a bit more. china has had a fair dumping as well-

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

11 hours ago, iapennell said:

What matters for Britain, of course, is not how extremely cold and/or snowy it gets in northern Russia or over the Arctic but the scope there is for such frigid air- once produced- to reach this country in late autumn and winter. The weakness of the developing La Niná, the QBO remaining Westerly and the unseasonal warmth of seas to the north and NW of Britain going into autumn this year do not suggest there will be much in the way of scope for frigid Arctic or Russian air reaching this country.

We shall, of course see. I will provide a more detailed forecast for Winter 2016/17 in October when we have a better idea how the main macro-scale drivers of our prevailing winter weather become clearer!  

Wouldn't warmer seas to our NW increase the chances of getting northern blocking over Iceland/Greenland? 

[blizzard81]

6 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Wouldn't warmer seas to our NW increase the chances of getting northern blocking over Iceland/Greenland? 

Great point. I believe that is indeed the case.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

More snow in Northern Russia.

Yesterday:

Today: