SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17

[Yarmy]

11 hours ago, Seasonality said:

No he isn't, he is clearly being tongue in cheek and indulging his rather interesting take on extreme scenarios. He said "Icy cold pack-ice clogged seas extending south over the Norwegian Sea and into the NE Atlantic would also help encourage high-pressure to the north of Britain" (my emphasis). Hardly what you're suggesting. Give the man a break and stop taking yourself so seriously. Sometimes it is ok to have fun

A negative phase shift of the winter AO/NAO due to the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction in late autumn

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022848/full

Quote

Temperature data reveal that a reduced (increased) sea-ice area in November leads to more negative (positive) phases of the AO and NAO in early and late winter, respectively. 

Which is the precise opposite of what he is claiming (on multiple threads). And redirecting asteroids into Antarctica in an attempt to combat climate change is not an interesting take on anything.

Edited October 21, 2016 by Yarmy

[Nouska]

15 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

A negative phase shift of the winter AO/NAO due to the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction in late autumn

Indeed!

A reanalysis of the last thirty years of October AO reveals this very distinctive shift.

'85-'00  '01-'15 

[summer blizzard]

SAI index running at second highest level to date. 

[joggs]

10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

SAI index running at second highest level to date. 

Sorry,but what does that mean.Thanks 

[Guest]

There could be a huge snow dump in Estonia and Russia in the next coming days but will most likely thaw.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

8 hours ago, joggs said:

Sorry,but what does that mean.Thanks 

If I'm not mistaken its the Snow Advancing Index (or close to that lol) and it tracks the amount of snow in Siberia. @summer blizzard will be able to explain in detail.

[snowking]

2 hours ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

If I'm not mistaken its the Snow Advancing Index (or close to that lol) and it tracks the amount of snow in Siberia. @summer blizzard will be able to explain in detail.

Pretty much!

in short - it's a measure by Judah Cohen of how quickly snow cover advances from east to west across the Eurasian landmass south of 60N through October.  

This significance being that some of Cohen's work has shown correlation between the rate of advance of snowcover and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the following winter - namely the quicker the snow advances, the more negative the AO in the winter that follows tends to be.

It should, however,  be noted that the correlation is far from perfect and a good SAI is not always a guarantee of a negative wintertime AO...which even in itself is not a guarantee of a cold winter for the UK necessarily. It certainly helps though!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest weekly Arctic sea ice extent update is here

[BornFromTheVoid]

I did a post a few years back on the relationship between Arctic sea ice extent and the winter CET, with some 500hPa charts and whatnot. You can read it here, might be relevant to some of the discussions in this thread.

[Snipper]

2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Latest weekly Arctic sea ice extent update is here

Looking at IMS Ice Extent Charts why is the current year rising quite quickly compared to the averages if the extent is at an almost all time low?  Simple explanation would be fine. 

Regards Snipper. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

38 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Looking at IMS Ice Extent Charts why is the current year rising quite quickly compared to the averages if the extent is at an almost all time low?  Simple explanation would be fine. 

Regards Snipper. 

Do you mind linking to the IMS charts in question? I though IMS only provided data through the melt season (March to September).

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Do you mind linking to the IMS charts in question? I though IMS only provided data through the melt season (March to September).

Probably reading things erroneously. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just now, Snipper said:

Probably reading things erroneously. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

Yeah, that only goes to the end of September. There was a big increase in extent just after the minimum, which has slowed down massively in October.
The sea ice update I did at the start of October showed that September had the 3rd largest extent increase on record. But as the last update showed, the extent increase so far this month is the smallest on record.

[Snipper]

Thanks

[Seasonality]

On ‎21‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 20:24, Yarmy said:

A negative phase shift of the winter AO/NAO due to the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction in late autumn

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022848/full

Which is the precise opposite of what he is claiming (on multiple threads). And redirecting asteroids into Antarctica in an attempt to combat climate change is not an interesting take on anything.

I see you missed the bit about harmless fun and not taking yourself too seriously  I happen to enjoy Ian's posts, even though they are often outlandish. I'm not under any illusion that they are anything but JFF as the saying goes. No harm intended Yarmy.

Edited October 24, 2016 by Seasonality

[Ice Day]

Whilst the march of snow westwards has stalled for a few days now, the sea ice has seen decent gains over the last 24 hours

 

[moorlander]

Alaska still has a way to go I see.

Still at least we have not lost any of the snow cover in eastern Russia.

Mods is beginning to heat up, I have my tin hat readyor should I upgrade to a steel one

Edited October 24, 2016 by moorlander

[mountain shadow]

There should be an expansion of snow West of the Urals and South of the Barents Sea over the weekend and through next week with snow forecast for Moscow, Helsinki and the Baltic States.

Getting closer!!

[jvenge]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

There should be an expansion of snow West of the Urals and South of the Barents Sea over the weekend and through next week with snow forecast for Moscow, Helsinki and the Baltic States.

Getting closer!!

Quite true, but around the Moscow area there is still a reasonable chance of snow melting in November. You aren't guaranteed to stay below freezing there at this time of the year. 

[Blessed Weather]

Not sure where this info should be posted, so apologies if it shouldn't be here. It's an interesting report from Meteo France titled "Warmth in the North Pole" and it has some interesting stats for this month showing just how freakish this October's weather is turning out with records being broken "from Greenland to Scandinavia".

• The east coast of Greenland was 19.3C on 5th October, a record for the island for October, beating the previous 18.7C in 1994.
• The mean temperature anonamly for Iceland is running at +4C for the month.
• The Svalbard archipelago in northern Norway recorded 10.1C on the 7th, beating it's previous record of 8.9C in 1984.
• With milder than normal temps expected to continue over the Arctic for the rest of October and into early November, coupled with a SST anomaly for the Arctic Ocean running at approx + 5C, conditions do not favour the recovery of sea ice which on 23rd October was 30% down on the 1981 - 2010 average for this time of year. This is the lowest ever recorded expansion of sea ice for the time of year.

Extension of Arctic sea ice to 23 October (in orange, the 1981 - 2010 mean). Data from the University of Boulder, Colorado.

My conclusion? No wonder the fledgling Polar Vortex is having an uncomfortable time cranking up this October - conditions across the Pole are far from 'normal'. And the slack temperature gradient between mid-latitudes and the Arctic Circle should help support a weaker, meandering jet with blocked patterns.

Full report in French: http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/41997496-douceur-au-pole-nord-en-octobre

 

[bobbydog]

Great positive snow anomaly so far-

[Mucka]

If this is right there was actually a lot of sea ice melt over the last 24h or so.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I go away for a few days and all hell breaks loose in Western Russia....

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Is that snow I see in Northern Germany??

[Seasonality]

32 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Is that snow I see in Northern Germany??

Yes it is, a dusting on most of Poland and then extending across northern Germany to the Dutch border.