SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Looks like Norway and Lapland have seen their first snowfalls

[Seasonality]

Good webcams to view the Polish high Tatras can be found at http://www.zol.pl This picture taken from a live feed at the time of this post shows snowfall over Kasprowy Wierch with other cams showing snowfall even to lower levels. For those not familiar with these mountains they are part of the Carpathian range and run along the Polish Slovak border.

 

 

 

[bobbydog]

this day (Oct 4th) every year since 2009-

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Well that's Siberia virtually covered. A good cold pool for an Easterly to tap into

[Seasonality]

A dusting even down to lower levels in the Polish Tatras. Lovely!

 

[joggs]

1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Well that's Siberia virtually covered. A good cold pool for an Easterly to tap into

I don't buy that at all, I'm sorry.Surely we need Russia and east eu to be bitter and the perfect synoptics even then to back the cold West.

And just because siberia is snow covered now doesn't mean to say it's good to tap into.

[Jimmyh]

check the mod thread things are moving in the right direction. Winds do originate from Siberia so wasn't out of the blue what @Turnedoutniceagain said.

[bobbydog]

27 minutes ago, joggs said:

I don't buy that at all, I'm sorry.Surely we need Russia and east eu to be bitter and the perfect synoptics even then to back the cold West.

And just because siberia is snow covered now doesn't mean to say it's good to tap into.

you are correct. however to be fair, its a good start to the season. it has little bearing on how our winter will turn out as you can see from the charts i posted earlier but it is the beginnings of the "cold pool" we would need to tap into. as you can see from 2009 and 2010 we had little siberian snow cover at this stage and the winters which followed... well... i dont need to tell you! in other years since, we seemed to be doing well yet got nothing. there is no correlation to siberian snow cover this early to our winter. we need a steady march of snow across eurasia and into europe during october to have a decent chance.

for now, its just observation. later on i'll post the charts for the 31st october for all the years since 2009 to see where we need to be by then.

Edited October 5, 2016 by bobbydog

[summer blizzard]

[blizzard81]

29 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

2016 starting low a little like 2009 which ended up 3rd highest by the end of October :-) What happened next during that winter, well we all know ;-)

[feno13]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

2016 starting low a little like 2009 which ended up 3rd highest by the end of October :-) What happened next during that winter, well we all know ;-)

If you zoom in on the image this year is near on identical to 2005 , i believe that was a snowy winter .

[bobbydog]

ok, i said i would post the oct 31st charts for each year from 2009. as @summer blizzard has posted the SAI chart, here is the N hemisphere view so we can see the snow cover south of 60°N, which is what the SAI is based on-

starting at 2009-

[karyo]

29 minutes ago, feno13 said:

If you zoom in on the image this year is near on identical to 2005 , i believe that was a snowy winter .

Winter 2005/6 was dry and near average.

2004/5 was mild

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

2016 starting low a little like 2009 which ended up 3rd highest by the end of October :-) What happened next during that winter, well we all know ;-)

I wasn't in the country then. What happened? I'm assuming a snow event?

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, Daryl Dixon said:

I wasn't in the country then. What happened? I'm assuming a snow event?

[Gael_Force]

What happened to Octobers '14 and '15 on that graph. I seem to recall people getting excited on here because both those years seemed to meet the criteria for a good advance south of 60 dgrees north.

Colour me sceptical.

Edited October 5, 2016 by Gael_Force

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

What happened to Octobers '14 and '15 on that graph. I seem to recall people getting excited on here because both those years seemed to meet the criteria for a good advance south of 60 dgrees north.

Colour me sceptical.

Me too: this purported link, seems about as reliable as PC's infamous 'solar sausages', to me...When it 'comes-off', it's the beez neez; but, when (more often than not?) it doesn't, it's 'not an exact science after all'?

Edited October 5, 2016 by Ed Stone

[Coopsy]

24 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Now that's impressive!

[feno13]

44 minutes ago, karyo said:

Winter 2005/6 was dry and near average.

2004/5 was mild

2005/6 was a mixed winter with some good snow events . All quotes taken from the met office website below 

Nov 2005

The first half of the month was unsettled and warm, while the second half was cold and increasingly wintry with some significant snow, fog and frost. Overall, it was a very sunny month, with sunshine figures exceptionally above average.

Dec 2005

Unsettled and mild at first. Briefly colder mid-month with some wintry showers in the east. Much colder late in the month with some substantial snowfall in eastern England 27th to 30th.

Jan 2006

Generally it was a dry month across England and Wales but there was a period of wet and windy weather for Wales and western counties between the 9th and 16th.

Feb 2006

Temperatures close to average, but the coldest February since 1996.

March 2006

It was a cold month with spells of wintry weather and below-average temperatures. However, this was partially offset by warmer conditions during the final week of the month as winds turned south-westerly.

[blizzard81]

27 minutes ago, Daryl Dixon said:

I wasn't in the country then. What happened? I'm assuming a snow event?

The winter of 2009/10 was the first proper cold/snowy winter for what seemed an eternity.

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, feno13 said:

2005/6 was a mixed winter with some good snow events . All quotes taken from the met office website below 

Nov 2005

The first half of the month was unsettled and warm, while the second half was cold and increasingly wintry with some significant snow, fog and frost. Overall, it was a very sunny month, with sunshine figures exceptionally above average.

Dec 2005

Unsettled and mild at first. Briefly colder mid-month with some wintry showers in the east. Much colder late in the month with some substantial snowfall in eastern England 27th to 30th.

Jan 2006

Generally it was a dry month across England and Wales but there was a period of wet and windy weather for Wales and western counties between the 9th and 16th.

Feb 2006

Temperatures close to average, but the coldest February since 1996.

March 2006

It was a cold month with spells of wintry weather and below-average temperatures. However, this was partially offset by warmer conditions during the final week of the month as winds turned south-westerly.

If you add Nov and Mar then yes but for the core winter period it was average and dry. The further southeast you went the chillier it was. The continent was properly frozen so it was unfortunate that we didn't manage to get a good continental feed.

March had some really nice snowfalls and it was the best month for wintriness.

[Coopsy]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The winter of 2009/10 was the first proper cold/snowy winter for what seemed an eternity.

Having been back for my 3rd winter now I don't think I've seen any settled snow so hopefully the winter of 2016/17 will be the same as 09/10 :-)

[feno13]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

If you add Nov and Mar then yes but for the core winter period it was average and dry. The further southeast you went the chillier it was. The continent was properly frozen so it was unfortunate that we didn't manage to get a good continental feed.

March had some really nice snowfalls and it was the best month for wintriness.

I do not disagree with you. I was just stating there was some good snow events in that winter ,as most people  on here look for snow from Nov to Mar i looked at those months as well . My mistake i should of made this clearer .

[bobbydog]

30 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

What happened to Octobers '14 and '15 on that graph. I seem to recall people getting excited on here because both those years seemed to meet the criteria for a good advance south of 60 dgrees north.

Colour me sceptical.

 

25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Me too: this purported link, seems about as reliable as PC's infamous 'solar sausages', to me...When it 'comes-off', it's the beez neez; but, when (more often than not?) it doesn't, it's 'not an exact science after all'?

well the SAI is used to predict the AO and NAO. not to predict the winter in the UK. with a high SAI the chances of a snowy winter here increase but there are never any guarantees. in 2014 we had the spectacular fail of the October Pattern Index. this was a shame because it matched previous years with a good degree of accuracy. luck would have it that the first year it officially rolls out is one of those few times that it doesn't match. it was never claimed to be an exact science Pete. 2015 had fairly decent eurasian snow cover but the record El Nino dominated the weather and the polar vortex was just too powerful to be disrupted. things are different this year hopefully, weak la nina and PV, no sign as yet in the models of the jetstream firing up, give us a fighting chance as we head into winter.

[karyo]

2 hours ago, feno13 said:

I do not disagree with you. I was just stating there was some good snow events in that winter ,as most people  on here look for snow from Nov to Mar i looked at those months as well . My mistake i should of made this clearer .

No problem. From a personal perspective I have good memories from that winter as it was a nice break from the long list of mild zonal winters we had.