SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17

[damianslaw]

Quite a cooldown expected over Siberia over the days ahead with a deep low pressure system drawing in cold arctic air, many part of NE Russia likely to turn white by this time next week - all very normal for late September. The next 4 weeks typically see a major pronounced drop in temps over Siberia. Always a good watch this thread from now on, watching the yellow and white expand.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest weekly sea ice extent update is here

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

More snow in Northern Russia.

Yesterday:

Today:

His face is still there,    though his 'eye' will be closed in a couple of days!! Hibernating for the winter I expect!

MIA

 

[Frost HoIIow]

1947

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just now, Frost HoIIow said:

1947

Good try FH...??

Thought it was 2016-17?

(Your paint slipped onto the title box!)

MIA

 

Edited September 25, 2016 by Midlands Ice Age

[iapennell]

On 9/24/2016 at 10:24, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Wouldn't warmer seas to our NW increase the chances of getting northern blocking over Iceland/Greenland? 

Strictly speaking, no. Warmer surface waters would warm the air above it, causing it to expand (i.e. become less dense). The upper air coming over it from the west will bring similar 500 mb thickness heights as this is little affected by quite sizeable patches of warmer-than-normal water. This (directly) leads to lower surface pressures over waters to the NW of the UK; that is, less conducive to high-pressure forming/persisting over the area.

Instead, a large area of ocean surface being warmer than usual will have a knock-on effect of the whole troposphere through warming it and increasing 500 mb thickness heights downwind and this ought to encourage higher-surface pressure (other things being equal) over locations well to the east. However, the warmer seas would mean warmer surface winds/warmer middle atmosphere moving eastwards and northwards where this would be more effective in preventing the formation of snow-cover over, say, western Russia and Scandinavia. Those areas would cool rather less rapidly (heat continuing to be absorbed from the Sun) from a warmer starting point and the rather less-dense surface air would more than cancel out the effect of increased 500 mb thickness heights. Anomalously cold waters north and north-west of Britain encourage blocking highs, anomalous warmth tends to have the opposite effect.   

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Here's the latest. The ice-cap's expanding well. New dumpings in Siberia

[Turnedoutniceagain]

As predicted by several members, Siberia is filling up nicely

[Don]

11 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

As predicted by several members, Siberia is filling up nicely

Let's hope that come January, the UK is filling up nicely!

[Dancerwithwings]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

Let's hope that come January, the UK is filling up nicely!

Emmm, you've missed.......December  

[Midlands Ice Age]

11 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

As predicted by several members, Siberia is filling up nicely

Turnedoutniceagain..

I think we need to thank the Russian Met Office for their forecast!!!.

(Mr Putin may be reading this forum..).

Seriously though they forecast this very cold outbreak 4-5 days ago.

Can we claim our  forecasts for cold shots in the winter to this degree of accuracy?

They had forecast it setting in for the next 7 days at least.

Will it be correct?

MIA

 

 

[Don]

3 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Emmm, you've missed.......December  

Well, that would be nice but more it's more likely to in January.  Mind you, if the latest Met Office contingency forecast comes off, the UK could well be filling up with snow come December!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Siberia now has snow coverage that would blanket most of Europe. Further build ups in N Alaska and Canada

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

9 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Siberia now has snow coverage that would blanket most of Europe. Further build ups in N Alaska and Canada

Impressive bulid up, let's hope it lasts!!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Impressive ice-cap build up and pixels starting to appear in Norway

[throwoff]

Oh dear lord I love this thread!

[throwoff]

Certainly lumpier than last year.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Certainly lumpier than last year.

Interesting to see the difference in snow cover over siberia to last year... and less over Canadian side....does this mean anything for the upcoming winter??

[Yarmy]

Latest from Cohen:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

2 points of relevance to this thread:

• It is now certain that the 2016 Arctic sea ice melt season ended on September 10 tied for the second lowest extent observed.  With below normal Arctic sea ice in the fall now a given, this favors a strengthened Siberian high and/or a weaker winter polar vortex (PV).
• Eurasian snow cover advance was slightly delayed but looks to make up for lost time.   Low sea ice and a negative AO favor a rate of advance normal to above normal in the near term.

 

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Latest from Cohen:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

2 points of relevance to this thread:

• It is now certain that the 2016 Arctic sea ice melt season ended on September 10 tied for the second lowest extent observed.  With below normal Arctic sea ice in the fall now a given, this favors a strengthened Siberian high and/or a weaker winter polar vortex (PV).
• Eurasian snow cover advance was slightly delayed but looks to make up for lost time.   Low sea ice and a negative AO favor a rate of advance normal to above normal in the near term.

 

Very Interesting read.  so it seems his theroy is  that rapid snow gain in siberia in october favours a negative winter AO.  Something to keep a eye on.

[Yarmy]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Very Interesting read.  so it seems his theroy is  that rapid snow gain in siberia in october favours a negative winter AO.  Something to keep a eye on.

Yeah, he calls his metric the Snow Advance Index.

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/Cohen_NOAA_fcst.pdf

 

[terrier]

Knowing our luck the hole of Europe will be blanketed in snow. And we will still be under westerly Atlantic driven dross. Let's hope the MO are onto something with-there seasonal update. 

[weirpig]

9 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Yeah, he calls his metric the Snow Advance Index.

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/Cohen_NOAA_fcst.pdf

 

Thank you for that  very informative read.   One point i find interesting is that high snowfall in Siberia over the Autumn period  correlates to a southerly tracking Jet wich  potentially brings a cold winter to the eastern side of the usa and europe.    Accu weather have just issued there winter forecast which goes for a cold winter for the eastern side of the usa.   hopefully they may be on to something  however as always other variables come into play.

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Thank you for that  very informative read.   One point i find interesting is that high snowfall in Siberia over the Autumn period  correlates to a southerly tracking Jet wich  potentially brings a cold winter to the eastern side of the usa and europe.    Accu weather have just issued there winter forecast which goes for a cold winter for the eastern side of the usa.   hopefully they may be on to something  however as always other variables come into play.

I think a cold mid-west North American continent promotes a colder Europe than a cold Eastern side...both 2014 and 15 were cold in the eastern part of North America but were mild across Europe..where as 2010-11 was Cold In the mid western areas of North America and warm in the east but cold prevailed in Europe..another example is Feb 1991..exceptiianlly warm in eastern US bitter cold in Europe.

[weirpig]

18 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

I think a cold mid-west North American continent promotes a colder Europe than a cold Eastern side...both 2014 and 15 were cold in the eastern part of North America but were mild across Europe..where as 2010-11 was Cold In the mid western areas of North America and warm in the east but cold prevailed in Europe..another example is Feb 1991..exceptiianlly warm in eastern US bitter cold in Europe.

Thats ok they are going for a bitterly cold mid west aswell   6to 9c below last winter.   however it was warm over there last winter so  prob closer to a normal winter 

Edited September 29, 2016 by weirpig