September 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[summer blizzard]

9 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Looks like September has been confirmed at 16.0C, making it joint 5th warmest with 1795.

Let's hope this isn't a bad sign for Winter 2016, January 1796 was the third mildest on record (7.3C) 

 

7 hours ago, Don said:

That's my concern about this coming winter.  Winters following warm Septembers tend to be mild, especially during the last 20 years or so.

 

7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Last September was the coolest for just over two decades and look how the following winter turned out. 

 

5 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I don't think there's a winter(following a 16C+ September) that's been even average in the CET record. The stats really don't favour one for cold lovers. But we live in interesting times with the QBO update coming shortly. This one might be different

 

5 hours ago, Don said:

There are certainly no guarantees a cold winter will follow a cool September, but I think an average to cool September gives us a better chance of a cold winter to follow.

The sample size for years with 16+ is a grand total of 4 so i'd not worry too much but i thought it interesting to compare abnormally warm/cold winter months after a warm September. 

The 1981-2010 CET is 14C so we shall take 15C as our mild mark and look to see if any of those winter months produced a CET of 3.4C or below and 5.4C or above..

There are since 1700 a total of 23 September's which fit the bill and therefore 69 winter months.

Of those 69 winter months then, the number which were..

3.4C or below: 16

5.4C or above: 15

So about equal chances of an anomalously cold and warm month albeit a ~66% chance that the winter months will be close to average. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

September finished at 15.1c here which is 1.6c above the 1981-2010 average, its also the month with the greatest deviation from the mean so far this year just pipping April which was 1.4c below average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A massive 8 days set records for the CET minimum, 6th, 7th, 8th, 13th, 14th, 16th, 25th and 29th. Record maxima were set on 2 days, the 13th and 14th.

Of the 30 days this month, 24 days were above the 81-10 average and 6 were below average.

Of the 24 above average .......................... ..................... Of the 6 below average
15 were in the top 25 .............................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 25
5 was in the top 5 .................................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 5
3 were daily records* ............................... .......................... 0 were daily records

*1 of which equaled a daily record

The total downward correction in August was -0.04C, from 16.07C to 17.03C. Of the corrections, 15 days saw drops, 13 saw increases and 2 days saw no change.

[J10]

Results are now in, the CET was confirmed at 16.0c

No one got it spot on but 4 players were 0.1c out.
Dami, thestixx, Chris.R, Changing Skies. 

Overall not much change in the Top 3.

Man With Beard stays in 1st, CongletonHeat stays in 2nd with The PIT in 3rd.

Scores

Sept 2016 CET New.pdf

Sept 2016 CET New.xlsx

Stats

In terms of stats this month, the later entries did much better, with the 3rd and 4th quartiles scoring 56 and 73 respectively (against an average of 50).

There was also a negative correlation of -0.47 which backs this up, the average guess in the first quartile was 14.8c rising to 15.4c in the final quartile.

As ever any queries or issues let me know.

[damianslaw]

Hooray, September is over.. always the most 'trying' month weatherwise in my opinion. Another well above average month, lets forget it and move on please!