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September 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Min today of 9.6C while maxima look like being around 16C, so a drop to 16.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.2C to the 27th (16.3: +3.4)
16.3C to the 28th (16.6: +3.4)
16.3C to the 29th (17.1: +4.0)
16.2C to the 30th (12.7: -0.1)

So a finish of 16.0C to 16.4C before corrections, and 15.6C to 16.4C after corrections looks likely

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield 15.5C  +1.8C above average. Very likely to be the final finger unless tomorrow is cooler than what the GFS shows. I would then guess the CET region ending up around 16.2C normally about +0.7C difference.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Unless it's a very cold night tonight and cold day tomorrow we will finish on 15.5C

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Mmm not so sure we will come in above 16 degrees, today and tomorrow may nudge us just below with downward adjustments, tomorrow is looking quite cool. A finish of 15.9 degrees I suspect.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield will finish at 15.4C 1.7C above normal warmest since 2006. Only the last week was below average just.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Looks like September has been confirmed at 16.0C, making it joint 5th warmest with 1795.

Let's hope this isn't a bad sign for Winter 2016, January 1796 was the third mildest on record (7.3C) :(

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

2 new daily mean records set this month, 13th (20.7C, beating previous of 19.4C), 14th (21.3C, beating previous of 19.3C) and 1 daily record equaled on the 15th (18.8C).

I'll update with more stats and graphs during the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Surprise to see that nobody....had 16C...a whole 1c out for me... Just reckless :)

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

Looks like September has been confirmed at 16.0C, making it joint 5th warmest with 1795.

Let's hope this isn't a bad sign for Winter 2016, January 1796 was the third mildest on record (7.3C) :(

That's my concern about this coming winter.  Winters following warm Septembers tend to be mild, especially during the last 20 years or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
11 minutes ago, Don said:

That's my concern about this coming winter.  Winters following warm Septembers tend to be mild, especially during the last 20 years or so.

Last September was the coolest for just over two decades and look how the following winter turned out. 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
2 hours ago, Don said:

That's my concern about this coming winter.  Winters following warm Septembers tend to be mild, especially during the last 20 years or so.

I don't think there's a winter(following a 16C+ September) that's been even average in the CET record. The stats really don't favour one for cold lovers. But we live in interesting times with the QBO update coming shortly. This one might be different:cold:

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Last September was the coolest for nearly two decades and look how the following winter turned out. 

There are certainly no guarantees a cold winter will follow a cool September, but I think an average to cool September gives us a better chance of a cold winter to follow.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

I was  0.23°C too low,  by far the closest I've ever come. When I put it in at the beginning of the month I thought my guess would be way too high lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
36 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I don't think there's a winter(following a 16C+ September) that's been even average in the CET record.The stats really don't favour one for cold lovers. But we live in interesting times with the QBO update coming shortly. This one might be different:cold:

That's cobblers and I don't need to look into it either, many severe winters have been followed in by unseasonable autumn warmth, what happens in September on this little isle gives no indication or definitive outcome on what's to come. October is more significant but you can not take the UK in isolation, we're a needle in a haystack in the northern hemisphere. 

Edited by Changing Skies.
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Is this the sept C.E.T thread ?

Sure there's a sub forum/thread for this :)

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
54 minutes ago, Don said:

There are certainly no guarantees a cold winter will follow a cool September, but I think an average to cool September gives us a better chance of a cold winter to follow.

No evidence to support that. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_min_sort.txt

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

The 21.3C value on the 14th was the joint seventh warmest September day in recorded history (the 8th in 1898 was also 21.3C). Only the 21st in 2006 was as warm/ warmer at a later stage in the month (21.4C).

We also got the latest 3-day period ever to have a mean of 20C or above: the 13th-15th averaged 20.3C. The next latest was 7th-9th 1898 (20.5C), so this record jumped almost a week.

At 17.5C, the first half (1st-15th) was the third warmest on record, behind 1865 (18.1C) and 1898 (17.6C).

At 14.6C, the second half (16th-30th) was a less remarkable (although still noteworthy) joint 14th warmest on record. Other years to record this figure were 1795, 1875, and 1999. The record is 16.5C, in 2006.

By minima, September 2016 was third warmest on record (12.1C), behind 1949 (12.2C) and 2006 (12.8C).

By maxima, September 2016 was seventh warmest on record (20.0C). The record is held by 2006, at 20.9C.

Below shows the mean CET to each date for 2016, and how these values compare to the five warmest Septembers for which daily data is available:

 

kshdflaksebfO;UQ;WD.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Just a hint :good:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I took the confirmed value (16.0) and edited posts made about record numbers of maximum records (posted 18th) and warmest 12-month intervals (posted 21st).

The summary would be that we have seen 16 daily records (high CET mean daily) over a ten-month (and ten days) interval, which includes two ties; the closest performance to that was 17 including one tie over fourteen months May 1947 to July 1948. Over the same period as this past one, the 1947-48 run produced 13 records including one tie.

Meanwhile the outcome made Oct 2015 to Sept 2016 the warmest such period ever at 10.96, and we need 12.4 in October to make the Nov 2015 to Oct 2016 period warmer than 1994-95 which is currently warmest there. Anything over 9.2 is good for second warmest Nov to Oct "year." These will start becoming more difficult once we have to replace the 9.5 Nov and 9.7 Dec from last year.

You can see the details and comparisons by looking back to those posts. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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