September 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Man With Beard]

7 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Anywho, the outlook from the 06z GFS (not quite as record breaking as the 00z)

16.2C to the 1st (16.2: +0.8)
16.4C to the 2nd (16.6: +1.2)
16.2C to the 3rd (15.7: +0.4)
16.3C to the 4th (16.6: +1.9)
16.6C to the 5th (18.1: +3.0)
17.1C to the 6th (19.5: +4.4)
17.7C to the 7th (21.0: +6.0) [Record High: 21.1C]
17.9C to the 8th (19.2: +4.2)
17.5C to the 9th (15.0: +0.3)
17.4C to the 10th (16.4: +1.7)

Still the 6th warmest first 10 days if it comes off. An extended summer anyone?

Indeed. It doesn't feel like an Indian summer at all, just a summer that won't end. 16C doesn't seem a bad bet at all.

Edited September 1, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Mr Maunder]

Late again! 15.1c please.

MM

[Summer Sun]

15.5 to the 1st

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited September 4, 2016 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 13.9C, while maxima look like being close to 20C, so an increase to around 16.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.0C to the 3rd (15.4: +0.1)
16.1C to the 4th (16.4: +1.7)
16.2C to the 5th (16.6: +1.5)
16.7C to the 6th (19.5: +4.4)
17.2C to the 7th (20.1: +5.1)
17.5C to the 8th (19.2: +4.2)
17.8C to the 9th (20.1: +5.4) [Record High: 19.8C]
17.8C to the 10th (18.5: +3.8)
17.9C to the 11th (18.8: +4.0)

Certainly looking warm for the first third of the month. So much so that anything lower than 1C below the 81-10 average can probably be ruled out already.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today of 13.9C, while maxima look like being close to 20C, so an increase to around 16.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.0C to the 3rd (15.4: +0.1)
16.1C to the 4th (16.4: +1.7)
16.2C to the 5th (16.6: +1.5)
16.7C to the 6th (19.5: +4.4)
17.2C to the 7th (20.1: +5.1)
17.5C to the 8th (19.2: +4.2)
17.8C to the 9th (20.1: +5.4) [Record High: 19.8C]
17.8C to the 10th (18.5: +3.8)
17.9C to the 11th (18.8: +4.0)

Certainly looking warm for the first third of the month. So much so that anything lower than 1C below the 81-10 average can probably be ruled out already.

Once again this year, near record heat is being forecast. The week-long period as forecast above from the 5th-11th looks very warm indeed, and would have a mean of 19.0C. Only two years have had a September week as hot or hotter, these being 1898 (heat peaked 3rd-9th; this period holds the record for the hottest September week ever, at 20.0C), and 1906 (1st-7th was 19.0C).

Of course, the 11th is a long way away yet, but even with a downgrade approaching 1C we'd end up in the top 10.

Edited September 2, 2016 by Relativistic

[DAVID SNOW]

18 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Indeed. It doesn't feel like an Indian summer at all, just a summer that won't end. 16C doesn't seem a bad bet at all.

Indian summer weather is for October I thought.

Way out in FI land, but the gfs goes rather cool for the last 6 days, to the 18th.....

[Stationary Front]

An Indian Summer is unusually warm weather after the first frost I think?

[Summer Sun]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Indian summer weather is for October I thought.

Way out in FI land, but the gfs goes rather cool for the last 6 days, to the 18th.....

 

 

9 minutes ago, Stationary Front said:

An Indian Summer is unusually warm weather after the first frost I think?

"The Met Office Meteorological Glossary first published in 1916, defines an Indian summer as 'a warm, calm spell of weather occurring in autumn, especially in October and November."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/weather-phenomena/indian-summer

[DAVID SNOW]

6 minutes ago, Stationary Front said:

An Indian Summer is unusually warm weather after the first frost I think?

Indeed. The saying originates from the Indian tribes of North America, so generally for the uk, September is too early.

[cheese]

Yeah, seems too early for September given it is often a warm month and more like an extension of summer than the start of autumn anyway. Maybe towards the end of the month.

Edited September 2, 2016 by cheese

[Evening thunder]

Why do I always forget this  lol

May as well get in a guess in to see how I do anyway...  gunna go for a warm one - 15.9C

[Summer Sun]

16.0 to the 2nd

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited September 4, 2016 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 11.7C and maxima likely to be about 19C, so a drop tomorrow to about 15.8C looks possible.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.0C to the 4th (16.4: +1.7)
16.5C to the 5th (18.7: +3.6)
17.2C to the 6th (20.7: +5.6) [Record High: 20.8C]
17.7C to the 7th (20.7: +5.7) [Record High: 21.1C]
18.0C to the 8th (19.7: +4.7) 
18.2C to the 9th (20.1: +5.4) [Record High: 19.8C]
18.4C to the 10th (19.8: +5.1) [Record High: 19.2C]
18.5C to the 11th (19.5: +4.7) [Record High: 20.3C]
18.1C to the 12th (14.0: -0.4)

A remarkable, record breaking 9 days ahead according to the GFS, with 5 days getting at least within 1C of a daily record.

[DAVID SNOW]

35 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Min today of 11.7C and maxima likely to be about 19C, so a drop tomorrow to about 15.8C looks possible.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.0C to the 4th (16.4: +1.7)
16.5C to the 5th (18.7: +3.6)
17.2C to the 6th (20.7: +5.6) [Record High: 20.8C]
17.7C to the 7th (20.7: +5.7) [Record High: 21.1C]
18.0C to the 8th (19.7: +4.7) 
18.2C to the 9th (20.1: +5.4) [Record High: 19.8C]
18.4C to the 10th (19.8: +5.1) [Record High: 19.2C]
18.5C to the 11th (19.5: +4.7) [Record High: 20.3C]
18.1C to the 12th (14.0: -0.4)

A remarkable, record breaking 9 days ahead according to the GFS, with 5 days getting at least within 1C of a daily record.

So 18.5 to the 11th according to the gfs. Will be interesting to see hadleys  provisional on the 12th...........

[Roger J Smith]

Summer Sun, the 1981-2010 normals are available, I posted them earlier than usual back on 31 Aug (about 06h).

[Summer Sun]

37 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Summer Sun, the 1981-2010 normals are available, I posted them earlier than usual back on 31 Aug (about 06h).

Oops my apologies

[Summer Sun]

15.7 to the 3rd

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

15.8 to the 4th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[NorthYorksWeather]

14.4c so far here this month, 0.9c above the 81-10 average, looking like rising over the coming few days.

Edited September 5, 2016 by vizzy2004

[Summer Sun]

16.3 to the 5th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 16.0C while maxima look like being around 23C, so an increase to 16.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

17.3C to the 7th (20.2: +5.2) [Record High: 21.1C}]
17.3C to the 8th (17.3: +2.3)
17.3C to the 9th (17.3: +2.6)
17.3C to the 10th (17.2: +2.5)
16.9C to the 11th (13.5: -1.3)
16.9C to the 12th (16.7: +2.3)
16.8C to the 13th (14.9: +1.0)
16.5C to the 14th (13.7: +0.0)
16.5C to the 15th (15.3: +1.7)

The record breaking warm spell shortened and downgraded in recent runs, but still temperatures well above average to continue for the week.

[Roger J Smith]

TABLE of FORECASTS is posted here ...

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=6

There were 82 forecasts and the median was 15.0 as many responded to the warm output on the models. Despite that, very few went into top five territory. In the past, only 1678 and 1708 finished on 15.0 and they are tied 22nd warmest. The four years at 15.1 include 1825, 1958, 2011 and 2014 and are tied 18th warmest. Five years are tied 13th warmest at 15.2 (1750, 1779, 1898. 1961 and 2005) and three years are tied at 10th warmest 15.3 (1730, 1731, 1929) each, then one year (1895, 9th warmest) hit 15.4, there has not yet been a 15.5, and two tied as 7th warmest (1780, 1999) at 15.6 From there on, 15.7 (1760) is sixth warmest but no years finished on 15.8 or 15.9, and the top five include 1795 in fifth at 16.0, 1865 and 1949 tied third at 16.3, then 1729 second at 16.6 and 2006 first at 16.8.. 

At the other end of the scale we have one forecast (11.1) that would be tenth coldest and coldest since 1952. 

Edited September 7, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

16.8 to the 6th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 16.4C

[Chris.R]

Sunny Crosby at  18.3°C!